Brent crude oil could exceed $100 if Strait of Hormuz closure persists - UBS
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UBS warns that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $100 if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, raising their forecast for Brent to an average of $71 in Q1 2026. They highlight strong upside risks due to ongoing Middle East conflicts and potential strikes on energy infrastructure. While they acknowledge that a de-escalation could reverse the risk premium, they do not expect prices to drop below $60. Currently, the Strait is under a de facto closure due to threats of strikes, with very few tankers crossing.
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