Investment Insights - Under the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are exhausting their storage capacity and are forced to implement mandatory production cuts, with Brent crude oil set to surge towards $100 per barrel or even higher.
On March 5, WTI crude oil surpassed $82 per barrel, and Brent crude oil exceeded $86 per barrel, both reaching new highs since July 2024.
Since the U.S. and Israel's raid on Iran on February 28, WTI crude oil has cumulatively risen over 20%, while Brent crude oil has increased by more than 15%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260306/17727675977154.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260306/17727675977154.png"/>
[Source: TradingView; 2026 WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil trends]
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggers an oil supply crisis
Although Iran does not acknowledge the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, multiple media reports indicate that the Strait is currently in a de facto blockade state, with shipping volumes plummeting by 85%-90%, and only a few vessels from China and Russia can safely pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is recognized as the most important oil passage in the world. Approximately 20% (about 20 million barrels per day) of global crude oil exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas trade must pass through this area.
JP Morgan points out that if the blockade continues, the forced production cut scale for Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will reach about 3.3 million barrels per day on the 8th day, rise to 3.8 million barrels per day on the 15th day, and further expand to 4.7 million barrels per day on the 18th day.
What is the future trend of crude oil prices?
ANZ has raised its oil price forecast for the end of the first quarter, believing that Brent crude oil will reach $90 per barrel by the end of the month.
Goldman Sachs stated that if the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, Brent crude oil could rise to $100 per barrel. JP Morgan believes that if the conflict lasts more than three weeks, Brent crude oil may trade in the range of $100-$120.
Deutsche Bank noted that if Iran maintains its current ambiguous blockade of the Strait, Brent crude oil will fluctuate between $80 and $100 per barrel. However, if a full blockade is implemented, crude oil and refined product exports will be completely interrupted, and in this scenario, Brent crude oil could surge to $200 per barrel.
&#34;Iran is using oil as a strategic bargaining chip; unless Trump makes concessions, Brent crude oil is inevitably heading towards $100 per barrel or even higher,&#34; stated Nordea Bank of Sweden.
Deutsche Bank indicated that if a ceasefire occurs between the U.S. and Iran, and Iran announces the reopening of the Strait within two weeks, oil prices will stabilize around $80 per barrel before falling back to the $70 range

Oil prices have surged due to the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil breaking through $82 and $86 respectively, reaching new highs for 2024. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a supply crisis, and JP Morgan predicts that if the blockade continues, oil-producing countries will cut production by 4.7 million barrels per day. Major banks are optimistic about future oil price forecasts, with Brent crude oil potentially fluctuating above $100 per barrel. Deutsche Bank noted that if a full blockade occurs, oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel

mitrade

United States Oil Fund LP

VanEck Oil Services ETF

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

Us Brent Oil

SPDR Energy Select

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

Crude oil prices surged 20% in a week! With the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict, what will the future trend be?