Qatar has closed its Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant with an annual production capacity of 77 million tons, leading to a highly tense situation in the global gas market. This event not only caused European gas prices (TTF) to soar over 50% in just a few days but also profoundly reshaped the supply and demand landscape of the global energy and chemical industry chain.
On March 7, according to news from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, based on the latest research reports from HSBC, HSBC Qianhai, and Morgan Stanley, this event is reshaping the global LNG supply and demand landscape while also creating starkly different industry fates within Asia:
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For the Asian power industry, which heavily relies on Middle Eastern LNG, the threat of physical supply shortages is imminent; while for the Chinese chemical industry, sensitive to European gas prices, the significant cost increase for European competitors may open a rare structural opportunity window for domestic enterprises.
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According to the latest report released by HSBC Global Investment Research, QatarEnergy announced on March 2 that it would stop LNG production at Ras Laffan and declared force majeure. The facility has an annual production capacity of 77 million tons, accounting for about 20% of global LNG supply. Considering a restart window of about two weeks and assuming a four-week shutdown, the market will lose at least 8 million tons of LNG, nearly 2% of the annual supply.
Against this backdrop, European TTF gas prices surged about 70% in just two trading days, while Asian JKM prices also rose about 50%, both reaching nearly three-year highs.
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HSBC Qianhai Securities stated that the surge in European gas prices has raised production costs for local chemical companies, bringing structural market share expansion opportunities and product premium space for the Chinese chemical industry (especially in areas such as MDI, TDI, vitamins, and methionine).
Additionally, HSBC analysts clearly distinguished the nature of risks between Europe and Asia: Europe faces a price issue, rather than a physical availability issue; Asia, on the other hand, is facing the opposite—whether physical supply can be guaranteed. Morgan Stanley's Asia-Pacific research also pointed out that the Asian power industry relies on Middle Eastern LNG for about 20%, and the continuity of data center and grid supply is facing a real test, potentially being forced to turn to alternative energy sources such as coal.
<h2>Qatar LNG Supply Cut: A &#34;Black Swan&#34; for the Global Gas Market</h2>
QatarEnergy's announcement to close its LNG plant in Ras Laffan and declare force majeure directly cuts off nearly 20% of the global LNG supply. Ras Laffan is the world's largest LNG export facility, with an export volume of 82 million tons expected by 2025.
HSBC stated that the closure of this facility is not solely due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—due to the inability to transport goods, the on-site storage tanks (with a capacity of only about 1 million tons, insufficient for five days of normal loading) quickly approached saturation, leaving QatarEnergy with no choice but to halt production
This is crucial: The market is facing not only disruptions in freight due to the Strait blockade but also the time loss required for the restart of large complex facilities.
HSBC's report points out that if there is no significant infrastructure damage, about 40% to 50% of production capacity can be restored within a week after the restart, reaching full production within two weeks; however, if there is hardware damage or the regional situation remains unstable, the time required will be further extended. Reuters cited some estimates stating that the restart itself would take two weeks, and reaching full production would require another two weeks.
In terms of the magnitude of supply loss, HSBC estimates as follows: A one-month shutdown would result in a loss of about 6.8 million tons, a three-month shutdown would result in a loss of about 20.5 million tons, and a six-month shutdown could reach about 41.1 million tons, which corresponds to 1.5%, 4.6%, and 9.3% of the global LNG annual trade volume in 2025, respectively.
HSBC noted that considering Trump's previous statement about the Iraq war plan &#34;expected to last four to five weeks,&#34; combined with a two-week restart window, the mainstream market scenario assumes that the supply loss is no less than 8 million tons.
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This news has triggered extreme market volatility. European benchmark natural gas prices (TTF) surged by 50% after the announcement, breaking through $16 per million British thermal units (mBtu), and subsequently rose by about 70% over two trading days, reaching a three-year high. Asian spot LNG prices (JKM) also rose by about 50%.
It is noteworthy that the global LNG market already has little spare capacity. The United States, as the world's largest LNG exporter, currently has only about 5% of spare production capacity (about 6 million tons). The Norwegian energy minister stated that the country's gas producers are operating at near full capacity. Although Australia is the largest LNG supplier to Asia, its spare capacity is also limited.
For Europe, although its direct dependence on Qatari LNG has dropped to 4% (mainly due to increased imports of U.S. LNG), the current natural gas inventory is only 30%, which is expected to drop to 26% by the end of winter, and Europe will face fierce competition with Asia when replenishing stocks in summer. The main issue for Europe is the &#34;price problem&#34;—it must pay a higher premium to attract LNG shipments from the Atlantic basin.
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For Asia, the issue is the deadly &#34;physical availability.&#34; Of the LNG imported by Asian buyers in 2025, 26% comes from Qatar and the UAE. Countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which rely heavily on Qatari LNG for power generation, face extremely high risks of supply disruption.
<h2>Opportunities for China National Chemical Corporation: Market Share Expansion Amid High European Costs</h2>
The surge in European natural gas prices due to the disruption of Qatari LNG directly impacts the cost structure of the European chemical industry
According to analysis from HSBC Qianhai Securities, vitamins, methionine, and polyurethane (MDI/TDI) are the segments most sensitive to rising natural gas prices in Europe. Europe holds a significant position in the global capacity of these high-margin chemicals.
As European producers face cost pressures, Chinese chemical companies have gained a significant competitive advantage. Amid geopolitical tensions, producers have begun to raise prices, and distributors are increasing inventories of MDI/TDI and feed additives to hedge against price increases.
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Profit Sensitivity and Structural Expansion Although the current level of natural gas prices in Europe has not triggered large-scale production cuts, the event-driven pricing mechanism has encountered a structurally loose supply-demand pattern. For Chinese chemical companies, the rise in product prices directly translates into increased profitability.
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The report notes that, for example, if the price of methionine rises from a baseline assumption of 5,000 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, the earnings per share of related companies are expected to increase by approximately 29%.
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In the polyurethane sector, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the polymer MDI price spread, the profitability of related companies is expected to increase by about 15%; for pure MDI and TDI, every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in price spread is expected to increase profitability by approximately 7% and 9%, respectively. This high margin is expected to support the structural supply expansion of Chinese chemical companies in these areas.
<h2>Risks in Asian Power: Fuel Shortages and Rising Costs</h2>
Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Asian power and gas industry relies on Middle Eastern LNG for about 20% of its needs. The force majeure supply disruption of Qatari LNG poses a severe challenge to data centers and power grids in Asia.
The report points out that among Asian countries, India and Thailand have the highest exposure to spot LNG risks.
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<li>About one-sixth of India's natural gas demand comes from the Strait of Hormuz;</li>
<li>11% of the gas supply for Thailand's Gulf Development comes from the Strait of Hormuz, with a net exposure of 6%.</li>
<li>Manila Electric in the Philippines also has up to 50% of its gas supply dependent on LNG from the Strait of Hormuz.</li>
<li>In contrast, public utility companies in Malaysia and Indonesia are less affected by fuel availability.</li>
<li>Although Japan and South Korea import 11% and 20% of their LNG from the Middle East, respectively, it is mainly used for power generation, and Japan can mitigate short-term shocks by tapping into its LNG reserves.</li>
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Morgan Stanley states that the widening spark spread and the rising prices of coal as a substitute for LNG have directly led to the expansion of spark spreads in the electricity market, especially in commercial electricity markets like the Philippines and Singapore, where the power price spread for efficient operators has significantly increased.
In the face of uncertainty in LNG supply and high prices, coal has once again become a key alternative energy source to ensure uninterrupted power supply
Morgan Stanley's research shows that in a scenario where the LNG landed price reaches USD 15 per million British thermal units, the cost of combined cycle gas power generation is significantly higher than that of coal power, and the relative advantage of coal will accelerate this switching process.
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In South Asia, due to the availability of flexible capacity and the operation of new coal power plants, the fuel conversion from natural gas to coal (Gas-to-coal switching) is accelerating. The significant price discount of coal relative to alternative fuels further drives this trend.
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HSBC's report also points out that in the short term, incremental supply sources are limited, and demand-side response will become the main adjustment mechanism for market balance, with the most critical factor being the switch back from natural gas power generation to coal power

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Qatar shuts down the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant, cutting off about 20% of global LNG supply, creating a starkly different industry fate in Asia: for China National Chemical (MDI, TDI, vitamins, methionine, etc.), European competitors face soaring costs, presenting structural share expansion opportunities; for Asian power, a physical supply shortage is imminent, with the Philippines, India, and Thailand having the highest risk exposure, forcing countries to accelerate the shift to coal power

Without Qatar's LNG—Opportunities for China National Chemical Corporation and Risks for Asian Power