The U.S. withdraws a ground force? Trump: The possibility of Kurdish armed forces participating in the war has been ruled out

Trump explicitly excludes the "Iranian Kurdish opposition forces" from participating in the conflict and raises the threshold for the U.S. to deploy ground troops. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated on Air Force One on March 7 that he does not want to complicate the war further, saying, "This war is complicated enough, there's no need to involve the Kurds." Trump also mentioned that the deployment of U.S. ground troops to Iran requires "very good reasons," and that the Iranian military must be severely weakened to the point of being "unable to fight." However, he expressed clear interest in the idea of sending ground troops to control Iran's uranium enrichment facilities. "Maybe at some point we will do that." Media analysis suggests that if Kurdish forces enter the conflict against Iran, it could lead to broader regional repercussions, and Kurdish leaders in Iraq are also cautious about their involvement. Iran and Turkey have also issued warnings regarding the risks of Kurdish separatism, making the controllability of the situation a key variable for the market's assessment of geopolitical risks. Trump Draws the Line: Not Allowing Kurdish Forces to "Join In" According to Bloomberg, Trump emphasized on Air Force One that he has a "good relationship" with the Kurds, who have told him they are "willing to enter" Iran, but he has informed them that "he does not want them to go," in order to avoid further complicating the war. This statement contrasts with earlier leaked information. Previously, on March 5, Xinhua cited Israeli media reports that U.S. senior officials revealed that Kurdish forces stationed in Iraq were launching a "ground offensive." It is believed that there are thousands of soldiers from the "Iranian Kurdish opposition forces" within Iraq. Other reports indicate that the Israeli military has been trying to "open the way" for Kurdish forces to gain a foothold in northwestern Iran, with the ultimate goal of encouraging armed Kurds to oppose Tehran. In this context, Trump's "exclusion" statement tightens the options for pressuring Iran through Kurdish forces. Ground Troop Option "Postponed," but Not Completely Closed Off As speculation grows about whether the U.S. will further escalate military involvement, Trump stated that the deployment of U.S. ground troops to Iran requires "very good reasons," and that the Iranian military must be severely weakened to the point of being "unable to fight." However, he also left room for maneuver: when discussing the potential deployment of ground troops to control Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, Trump said, "That would be a great thing," and "maybe at some point we will." For investors, the significance of this statement lies in the fact that the U.S. policy path still has bifurcations: one end continues to focus on air operations in coordination with allies, while the other end opens the possibility of ground actions driven by specific objectives. The uncertainty itself will continue to affect risk pricing. The Spillover Risks of the Kurdish Factor: Regional Warnings and Power Constraints However, bringing Kurdish forces into the fight against Iran could trigger more complex regional reactions. Bloomberg reports that Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has stated that they have targeted Kurdish organizations within Iraq and warned that they will not tolerate separatist movements. Turkey has also indicated that organizations promoting Kurdish separatism threaten regional stability and the territorial integrity of neighboring countries. From a capability constraint perspective, Bloomberg cites Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, the founding chairman of the Erbil Middle East Research Institute, stating that although some Kurdish factions are preparing for potential cross-border actions, these organizations remain divided and lack the capability to directly challenge the Iranian state apparatus, although they may create "pressure points" along the border. Media analysis points out that these organizations currently also lack the influence and resources to successfully launch an uprising. Additionally, there are divisions within the Kurdish opposition organizations, with differing ideologies and agendas. Furthermore, the Kurdish people's trust in the United States is limited. Historically, Kurdish armed groups have cooperated with the U.S. multiple times but have often been "abandoned." CNN national security analyst Alex Plitsas warns that "if the uprising fails and the U.S. withdraws, this will increase the narrative of the U.S. abandoning the Kurds."