CITIC International: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz may drive up coal prices, YANCOAL AUS is expected to benefit from it

Zhao Yin International published a research report stating that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and interruptions in natural gas production in the Middle East, natural gas prices have risen by 70% in the past week. The shortage of natural gas and soaring prices may lead to a shift in the energy structure from natural gas to coal, as coal is less affected by disruptions. Historically, the price of sea thermal coal has closely followed the trend of European natural gas prices, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 over the past decade.

The bank believes that given the high exposure of YANCOAL AUS (03668.HK) in thermal coal sales, which will reach 84% by 2025, the company will benefit in the short term, and it is expected that for every 1% increase in thermal coal prices, its net profit will see a 5% boost.

The bank maintains its target price at HKD 38, with a rating of "Buy."