China's crude oil imports from January to February reached a record high for the same period, while imports of copper and steel saw a significant decline, and rare earth exports surged by 23%

Against the backdrop of ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, China's crude oil and refined oil imports saw a significant increase in January and February, while copper and natural gas imports fell sharply due to price and demand factors. Key mineral exports surged, with rare earth exports skyrocketing by 23%. On March 10, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in February, China's imports increased by 10.9% year-on-year in terms of RMB, while exports rose by 36.1% year-on-year. In terms of bulk commodity exports, rare earth exports surged, with a year-on-year jump of 23% in January and February, aluminum exports increased year-on-year, and iron ore imports in the first two months rose by 10% year-on-year; steel exports declined by 8.1% year-on-year in the first two months. In terms of bulk commodity imports, crude oil and refined oil achieved year-on-year growth, while steel and copper imports saw a significant decline year-on-year. In February, crude oil imports increased by 12.54% year-on-year, with the first two months reaching a record high for the same period, and iron ore imports in the first two months rose by 10% year-on-year. Copper imports plummeted, with a 16.1% decline from January to February, and a year-on-year drop of -24.81% in February alone. Steel imports from January to February decreased by 21.7% year-on-year. Rare Earth Exports Surge In the first two months, rare earth exports increased by 23% year-on-year, reaching 10,468.3 tons. This figure continues the strong momentum from the entire year of 2025, as last year China's rare earth exports reached the highest level since at least 2014. Apart from rare earths, aluminum exports also remained strong, with non-rolled aluminum and aluminum product exports totaling 970,600 tons in the first two months, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Energy Imports Rebound, Crude Oil, Refined Oil, and Iron Ore All Achieve Growth In February this year, in terms of quantity, crude oil, refined oil, iron ore, integrated circuits, and soybeans all saw growth; imports of steel, natural gas, and lignite declined. In the first two months of this year, China's crude oil imports surged by 15.8% year-on-year to 96.93 million tons, setting a record high for the same period. Analysts suggest that the current strategic reserve of crude oil is about 1.4 billion barrels (approximately 190 million tons), sufficient to cover a six-month gap in the event of a complete cutoff of imports from the Middle East. Refined oil imports also rose sharply, with a cumulative import of 9.032 million tons in the first two months, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%. Due to the impact of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, international oil prices approached $120 per barrel on Monday. Analysts believe that the large reserves are expected to play a buffering role under the dual pressures of production cuts in the Middle East and trade disruptions. Iron ore imports also saw growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% in the first two months, reaching 210.2 million tons, higher than the 191.4 million tons in the same period last year. Kpler analyst Alexis Ellender pointed out that the growth was mainly due to strong exports from Australia in December last year—less weather disruption than the same period last year and improved domestic demand. In contrast, copper imports fell by 16.1% year-on-year, and natural gas imports slightly declined by 1.1%, reflecting structural differentiation on the demand side In the past two months, copper imports fell by 16.1% year-on-year to 699,600 tons, due to soaring copper prices reaching historical highs, which deterred buyers; however, copper concentrate imports increased by 4.9% to 4.933 million tons to meet the record output demand of smelters, creating a stark divergence between the two. Natural gas imports slightly declined by 1.1% to 20.016 million tons. Weak industrial electricity demand during the Spring Festival holiday suppressed maritime imports, while domestic production and record pipeline gas supplies from Russia provided more price-competitive alternative sources. Soybean imports fell by 7.8% year-on-year in the first two months, despite an increase in shipments from the United States after the trade truce in October last year.