The "Spring Festival Effect" of soaring exports

Event: On March 10, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export data for January-February, with exports (in USD) increasing by 21.8% year-on-year, expected at 7.3%, and the previous value at 6.6%; imports (in USD) increased by 19.8% year-on-year, expected at 6.9%, and the previous value at 5.7%. Core Viewpoint: The "Spring Festival misalignment" boosted exports by 8.4 percentage points, while improved external demand boosted exports by 6.8 percentage points. The significant surge in exports for January-February is primarily due to the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment," and secondarily due to improved external demand. Historically, the export growth rate at the beginning of the year experiences significant fluctuations, and the combined data for January-February is difficult to eliminate the aforementioned disturbances; according to the customs "Spring Festival adjustment" model, the impact period of the Spring Festival on exports lasts for one and a half months. Last year's Spring Festival was earlier than this year, and more shutdowns affected last year's January-February export readings, resulting in a low base; it is estimated that the "Spring Festival misalignment" boosted this year's January-February export growth rate by 8.4 percentage points, while the remaining 6.8 percentage points of export rebound is consistent with high-frequency indicators (port foreign trade cargo volume rebounded by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year). From the perspective of commodity structure, the export rebound is more pronounced in labor-intensive industries significantly affected by the "Spring Festival misalignment," while some intermediate capital goods improvements may reflect the impact of emerging demand improvements. The Spring Festival misalignment affects exports across all industries, but the extent of the impact varies by industry. In January-February, labor-intensive industries such as textiles and apparel, and plastic furniture saw a larger export rebound, as these industries are more directly affected by the Spring Festival, thus benefiting more from the high export growth brought about by the "Spring Festival misalignment." The improvement in exports from these industries is also related to the recovery of demand in the United States; some intermediate capital goods such as integrated circuits, automatic data processing equipment and components, and automotive parts also saw a significant rebound in exports, related to the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies and increased imports of production materials. From the perspective of country structure, the improvement in U.S. demand and the acceleration of emerging demand remain the two key logical supports for exports. Based on the data adjusted for the Spring Festival, exports to the U.S. (rebounding by 13.4 percentage points to -16.7%) showed a significant rebound. We continue to emphasize that the current real imports in the U.S., excluding special commodity disturbances, remain weak compared to U.S. consumer demand, which means that the U.S. has a continuous motivation to increase imports, and the easing of tariff situations is also conducive to strengthening this logic; exports to Africa (rebounding by 18.3 percentage points to 40.1%) and to ASEAN (rebounding by 9.2 percentage points to 20.3%) have shown significant strength, directly related to the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies and the release of domestic demand, reflecting the driving logic of policy expansion in emerging economies, accelerated FDI inflows, and the release of demographic dividends. From the perspective of imports, processing trade imports continue to rebound, which may also reflect the continued improvement in exports. In January-February, imports (in USD) increased by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year to 19.8%. Among them, processing trade imports rose by 19.1 percentage points to 37.9% in January-February. From the commodity level, the import growth rate of electromechanical products significantly improved compared to the previous month, increasing by 14.9 percentage points year-on-year to 23.7%; structurally, integrated circuit exports strengthened, increasing by 23.2 percentage points year-on-year The import performance of bulk commodities such as copper and iron ore is also good, rising by 9.5 and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month to 42.7% and 11.8%. Outlook: The "Spring Festival misalignment" may lead to a decline in March export figures, but annual exports are still expected to maintain high growth. This year's Spring Festival is later than last year, and exports will only return to normal intensity about a month after the New Year's Eve, which means that the "Spring Festival misalignment" will boost exports in January and February but suppress the March export figures. However, after the "Spring Festival adjustment," the export growth rate is expected to stabilize. The strong export data in January and February also reflects the mid-term logic of improving external demand, related to the replenishment of inventories in the U.S. import sector, easing tariff situations, accelerated industrialization in emerging economies, and an increase in China's export share. It is expected that the annual export growth rate will still maintain high growth. Regular tracking: Exports and imports both strengthened in January and February. In terms of consumer goods, exports of consumer electronics and light industrial products have both rebounded. The export growth rate of consumer electronics increased by 7.0 percentage points to 26.0%, with significant increases in integrated circuits, audio and video equipment, and their parts. The export growth rates of capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources have all rebounded. In terms of capital goods, the export growth rates of general machinery, medical instruments and devices, and ships have all rebounded. For intermediate goods, the export growth rate of integrated circuits has also increased. By country, the export growth rate to the United States has rebounded; the export growth rate to emerging economies and regions has also increased. The export growth rates to the United States and the European Union have both increased. The export growth rates to emerging economies such as Russia and ASEAN have also rebounded. Report Body On March 10, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export data for January and February, with exports (in USD) increasing by 21.8% year-on-year, expected at 7.3%, and the previous value at 6.6%; imports (in USD) increased by 19.8% year-on-year, expected at 6.9%, and the previous value at 5.7%. 1. Core Viewpoint: "Spring Festival misalignment" significantly boosts early-year exports The significant surge in exports in January and February is mainly due to the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment," followed by improvements in external demand. Exports in January and February (in USD) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, improving by 15.2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Historically, the export growth rate at the beginning of each year tends to fluctuate significantly, mainly due to the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment," and the combined figures for January and February are difficult to exclude from this disturbance. According to the customs "Spring Festival adjustment" model, the impact period of the Spring Festival on exports lasts for one and a half months, during which exports are weaker than normal levels until the 30th day after New Year's Eve. Last year's Spring Festival was earlier than this year, and more shutdowns affected last year's January and February export figures, creating a low base. It is estimated that the "Spring Festival misalignment" boosted this year's January and February export growth rate by 8.4 percentage points; the remaining 6.8 percentage points of export rebound is consistent with high-frequency indicators, with high-frequency port cargo throughput year-on-year (aligned with the lunar calendar) rebounding by 4.9 percentage points compared to December 2025. This trend has continued since early January, reflecting the impact of improving external demand From the perspective of product structure, the industries with a significant rebound in exports are also those labor-intensive industries that are more obviously affected by the "Spring Festival misalignment." The improvement in the export of some intermediate and capital goods may reflect the impact of emerging demand. The Spring Festival misalignment affects exports across all industries, but the extent of the impact varies by industry. The products with a significant rebound in exports fall into two main categories: first, light industrial products, such as clothing (up 24.6 percentage points to 14.4%, same below), textile yarn (up 24.6 percentage points to 20.4%), plastics (up 27.3 percentage points to 24.8%), furniture, lighting, etc. These industries are mainly concentrated in labor-intensive sectors, which are more directly affected by the suspension and resumption of work during the Spring Festival, thus benefiting more from the high export growth brought about by the "Spring Festival misalignment." At the same time, these products also have a high proportion of exports to the U.S., which may be related to the recovery of U.S. import demand and the easing of tariff conditions; second, some intermediate and capital goods, such as integrated circuits (up 19.9 percentage points to 67.6%), automatic data processing equipment and components (up 11.4 percentage points to 17.4%), ships, automotive parts, etc., are related to the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies and increased imports of production materials. From the perspective of country structure, the improvement in U.S. demand and the acceleration of emerging demand remain the two key logics supporting exports. Based on the data adjusted for the Spring Festival, exports to the U.S. (up 13.4 percentage points to -16.7%) have rebounded significantly from developed economies. We continue to emphasize that the current real imports in the U.S., excluding disturbances from special goods, remain weaker than U.S. consumer demand, which means that the U.S. has a continuous motive to increase imports, and the easing of tariff conditions is also conducive to strengthening this logic; The rebound in exports to the European Union was 7.5 percentage points; in terms of emerging economies, exports to Africa (up 18.3 percentage points to 40.1%) and to ASEAN (up 9.2 percentage points to 20.3%) showed significant strength, which is directly related to the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies and the release of domestic demand, reflecting the driving logic of policy expansion in emerging economies, accelerated FDI inflows, and the release of demographic dividends. From the perspective of imports, the strengthening of processing trade imports may also reflect the continued improvement in exports. In January-February, imports (in USD) rose by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year to 19.8%. Among them, processing trade imports rose by 19.1 percentage points in January-February to 37.9%. From the commodity level, the import growth rate of electromechanical products significantly improved compared to the previous month, rising by 14.9 percentage points year-on-year to 23.7%; structurally, integrated circuit exports strengthened, rising by 23.2 percentage points year-on-year. Imports of bulk commodities such as copper and iron ore also performed well, rising by 9.5 and 1.7 percentage points respectively to 42.7% and 11.8%. Looking ahead: the "displacement of the Spring Festival" may lead to a decline in March export figures, but exports for the whole year are still expected to maintain high growth. This year's Spring Festival is later than last year, and exports will only return to normal intensity about one month after the New Year's Eve, which means that the "displacement of the Spring Festival" will boost exports in January-February but lower the export figures for March. However, the export growth rate is expected to stabilize after the "Spring Festival adjustment." Moreover, the strong export data for January-February also reflects the mid-term logic of improving external demand, which is directly related to the replenishment of inventories in the U.S. import sector, easing tariff situations, accelerating industrialization in emerging economies, and the increase in China's export share. It is expected that the export growth rate for the whole year will still maintain high growth. ! 2. Regular Tracking: Exports and Imports Strengthened in January-February In terms of consumer goods, exports of consumer electronics and light industrial products have both rebounded. According to the key commodity data released by customs for January-February, the export growth rate of consumer electronics continued to rebound (+7.0 percentage points to 26.0%), with integrated circuits (+19.9 percentage points to 67.6%) and audio-video equipment and parts (+15.8 percentage points to 20.8%) showing recovery, while mobile phones (-21.4 percentage points to -10.8%) saw a decline. The export growth rate of light industrial products in January-February decreased (+25.9 percentage points to 16.1%), with furniture and parts (+32.8 percentage points to 24.2%), textile yarns (+24.6 percentage points to 20.4%), and footwear (+23.5 percentage points to 6.1%). The export growth rates of capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources have all rebounded. In terms of capital goods, the export growth rates of general machinery (+14.2 percentage points to 17.7%), medical instruments and devices (+17.2 percentage points to 19.2%), and ships (+29.4 percentage points to 54.4%) have all increased. For intermediate goods, the export growth rates of integrated circuits (+19.9 percentage points to 67.6%) and automotive parts (+13.1 percentage points to 12.3%) have rebounded. Additionally, the export growth rate of energy resources has increased (+6.2 percentage points to 10.4%), with significant rebounds in ceramic products (+41.1 percentage points to 28.8%) and plastic products (+27.3 percentage points to 24.8%), while refined oil (-37.5 percentage points to 4.9%) and rare earths (-69.8 percentage points to 16.5%) saw significant declines. In terms of countries, the export growth rate to the United States has rebounded, and the export growth rates to non-US developed economies, emerging economies, and regions have also increased. Among developed economies, the export growth rates to the United States (+13.4pct to -16.7%), the European Union (+7.5pct to 19.1%), and the United Kingdom (+5.3pct to 18.3%) have all rebounded, while the export growth rate to Japan (-3.7pct to 1.5%) has declined. Among emerging economies and regions, the export growth rates to Russia (+9.5pct to 13.1%), ASEAN (+9.2pct to 20.3%), and Africa (+18.3pct to 40.1%) have all increased, while the growth rate to Latin America (-1.3pct to 8.5%) has declined. The import growth rate in January-February has significantly rebounded, with a large increase in the import of electromechanical products. In January-February, imports (in USD) increased by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year to 19.8%. Specifically, the import growth rate of electromechanical products has significantly rebounded compared to the previous month (+14.9pct to 23.7%), with integrated circuits (+23.2pct to 39.8%) showing a large rebound. Among bulk commodities, imports of copper (+9.5pct to 42.7%) and iron ore (+1.7pct to 11.8%) have both increased, while imports of crude oil (-9.5pct to -4.7%) and soybeans (-7.5pct to -3.3%) have declined. Source: [Shenwan Hongyuan Macro Zhao Wei Team](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5ODE3MzAyOQ==&mid=2651021678&idx=1&sn=368ca70f02c3ec87b97f0ded0d43b6d5&chksm=8af7594355229e3862b288df0d281f21aa4449bbc8c5f5f34c6b3d2969c570b88baf2aa08552&scene=0&xtrack=1? Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk