Nio's Q4 2025 performance basically met expectations, but the management's guidance for sales and profits for the entire year of 2026 far exceeded market expectations, which surprised investors.
According to the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, a research report released by JP Morgan on March 11 indicated that Nio's management set a sales growth target of 40% to 50% for 2026, corresponding to approximately 463,000 to 496,000 vehicles, significantly higher than JP Morgan's previous forecast of about 30% growth and 433,000 vehicles.
At the same time, the management maintained the full-year Non-GAAP profit guidance, despite facing pressure from weak demand and rising costs of raw materials such as memory chips, lithium, and copper in the first quarter. This statement was described by JP Morgan as &#34;a major surprise to the market.&#34;
After the news was released, Nio's U.S. stock surged 15%, and JP Morgan maintained its overweight rating on Nio, with a target price of $7 (by December 2026).
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<h2>2026 Sales Guidance Exceeds Expectations, Full-Year Profit Target Remains Unchanged</h2>
JP Morgan's report pointed out that Nio's management's core strategy for 2026 revolves around driving sales growth through new and refreshed models. The management targets a sales growth of 40% to 50% this year, reaching 463,000 to 496,000 vehicles, higher than JP Morgan's original forecast of 433,000 vehicles. JP Morgan stated that it currently conservatively maintains its original sales forecast but believes there is potential for an upward revision.
In terms of profitability, the management expects the gross margin for complete vehicles in the first quarter to be around 18%, the same as in the fourth quarter, despite a quarter-on-quarter sales decline of about 37% and rising raw material costs. The management explained that the strong sales mix of the high-end ES8 model and limited cost impacts are the main factors supporting the gross margin. With sales expected to rebound from the second quarter, the management maintains the full-year Non-GAAP profit guidance.
Based on this, JP Morgan significantly revised its profit forecast: the adjusted loss per share for 2026 is narrowed from RMB 2.18 to RMB 1.33, while the adjusted profit per share for 2027 is raised from a loss of RMB 0.09 to a profit of RMB 0.15, an increase of 256%.
<h2>The Lido L80 SUV May Become a &#34;Killer&#34; Volume Model</h2>
JP Morgan emphasized in the report that the Lido brand's L80 SUV is a key highlight for Nio's volume and profitability in 2026. This model is expected to debut at the Beijing Auto Show in April and begin deliveries in May. JP Morgan believes that the L80 is likely to become a potential best-selling volume model, alongside the Lido L90 and Nio ES9 SUVs, forming the core pillars of sales in 2026.
JP Morgan's China Automotive Sentiment Index also supports the above judgment. This AI-driven index shows that buyer sentiment for Nio is rebounding from a low point, with its sentiment index jumping from the historical 75th percentile to a historical high, outperforming peers.
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In addition, Nio is developing its own ADAS chips through its subsidiary Shenji Technology (holding over 60%), and JP Morgan believes this move will not only enhance Nio's autonomous driving capabilities but also has the potential to expand external customers (including automakers or suppliers), possessing long-term strategic value. The overseas market layout of the Firefly brand is currently small, but JP Morgan views it as a long-term potential benefit.
JP Morgan's target price of $7 for December 26 is based on a blended average of 0.9 times the expected price-to-sales ratio for 2026 and 0.6 times the expected EV/sales for 2026, with the valuation multiples still below the average of 1 times price-to-sales ratio and 0.8 times EV/sales for new energy vehicle startups

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JP Morgan stated that Nio's 2026 sales guidance greatly exceeded expectations, with management targeting a growth of 40%-50% to approximately 496,000 vehicles, surpassing the forecast of 433,000 vehicles, while maintaining the full-year Non-GAAP profit target. The Lido L80 SUV may become a "killer" volume model, forming the core pillars of 2026 sales alongside the Lido L90 and Nio ES9 SUVs. JP Morgan maintains an overweight rating on Nio's US stock, with a target price of $7

- NIO's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, but its 2026 sales and profit guidance exceeded market predictions, impressing investors.  
- Morgan Stanley reported that management targets a 40% to 50% sales increase for 2026, estimating 463,000 to 496,000 vehicles, significantly above the previous 30% growth forecast.  
- The L80 SUV is highlighted as a key vehicle for 2026, with its launch expected at the Beijing Auto Show, and Morgan Stanley maintains a $7 target price based on updated financial projections.

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JP Morgan: Nio's 2026 sales guidance greatly exceeds expectations, the new model may become a "killer" vehicle