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Summary
After the &#34;New Year Opening Red&#34; market has basically been realized, last week (2026/03/02-2026/03/06), the market focused on policy speculation and digesting external shocks, with a broad correction in thematic sectors. Hydrogen energy, quantum communication, industrial mother machines, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are related to policy catalysis, saw slight gains. The trading sentiment in thematic sectors has declined, with most thematic daily turnover rates for the week being below the average since &#34;924,&#34; and significant net outflow of main funds. In terms of hot sectors, the market chased the resource price increase chain and AI inflation, with the price increase chain revolving around the oil price fluctuations due to the US-Iran conflict, driving the oil and petrochemical sector to lead the gains for the week; the AI inflation narrative traded around the &#34;AI power shortage&#34; narrative, with power equipment leading the growth sector.
The style rebalancing is evident, with large caps relatively resilient while small caps face greater adjustment pressure. The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, stated that excessive speculation will be restricted according to regulations, and strict investigations and penalties will be imposed on those who ride on hot topics and speculate on concepts. Coupled with the uncertainty of the prolonged US-Iran impact, it is expected to have a certain impact on thematic investment topics that have a relatively high proportion of small and medium-sized stocks, and caution is needed regarding the risk of declining risk appetite.
In terms of thematic rotation, there was no significant structural change among themes before last Friday, with the rotation intensity MA5 crossing below μ-σ; on Friday, driven by the recovery of innovative drugs and Hengke, as well as adjustments in rare earth permanent magnets, the thematic rotation intensity slightly rebounded. Historical observations show that when the rotation intensity MA5 crosses below μ-σ, the rotation intensity often experiences a phase rebound, and attention can be focused on lagging themes. Currently, the left-side lagging varieties mainly include AI applications and commercial aerospace. Funds for AI applications are still at the bottom, focusing on the potential catalysts brought by the hot OpenClaw and the upcoming release of Deepseek 4.0. Recent fund sentiment in commercial aerospace has shown significant recovery, but stock prices are generally consolidating, with attention on the first Shanghai Commercial Aerospace Conference and Exhibition; hydrogen energy and energy storage related to new energy, quantum and controllable nuclear fusion related to new productive forces, and industrial mother machines benefiting from policy boosts have generally seen upward fund sentiment, with excess returns relative to the CSI 800 rising and good profit effects. However, caution is needed regarding the potential for phase inflows of funds or even overcrowding after overbuying, which can be easily disturbed by market noise; other broad-based indices can focus on the continued warming fund sentiment in the sci-tech chip sector.
In terms of cutting-edge technology and industrial progress: AI applications have recently seen concentrated catalysts: 1) DeepSeek V4, equipped with Engram memory traces, will be released in March 2026; 2) The Longgang District Artificial Intelligence (Robot) Bureau in Shenzhen has recently solicited opinions on the &#34;Several Measures to Support the Development of OpenClaw &amp; OPC in Longgang District, Shenzhen (Draft for Comments).&#34;
In terms of AI hardware, representatives from seven companies, including Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Amazon, Meta, x AI, and Oracle, went to the White House and signed a written document committing to supply or purchase the electricity needed for AI data centers, addressing the highly concerning issue of AI power shortages in North America. In the commercial aerospace sector: 1) The Shanghai Commercial Aerospace Exhibition will be held from March 12-14, 2026; 2) The &#34;Blue Flame&#34; 220-ton liquid oxygen-methane full-flow staged combustion engine independently developed by Landspace has completed long-range testing of the entire system.
Risk Warning: Risk appetite declines beyond expectations; industry progress falls short of expectations; statistical data may contain errors, etc.
After the &#34;Year of the Horse Opening Red&#34; market has basically been realized, the market from March 2 to March 6, 2026, mainly focused on policy speculation and digesting external shocks, with a broad correction in thematic sectors. Among the sample themes, only hydrogen energy, quantum communication, industrial mother machines, and controllable nuclear fusion saw slight gains, while other themes generally declined. In terms of market sentiment, the trading sentiment for thematic investments has receded, with most themes having an average turnover rate for the week below the average turnover rate since &#34;924&#34;; the capital flow showed significant net outflow of main funds. Structurally, the strong performance of hydrogen energy, quantum communication, industrial mother machines, and controllable nuclear fusion may be related to policy catalysis. In terms of hot sectors, the market continues to chase the resource price increase chain and AI inflation, with repeated speculation around oil prices under the US-Iran conflict driving the oil and petrochemical sector to lead gains for the week; the AI inflation narrative is also structurally significant, with repeated trading around the &#34;AI power shortage&#34; narrative, leading the power equipment sector to outperform among growth sectors.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OJ9FU46Fih8fas0KXPzwhDfmG_i_oIG6V4c3iAR7BBpFwAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OJ9FU46Fih8fas0KXPzwhDfmG_i_oIG6V4c3iAR7BBpFwAA/641"/>
In terms of style, the market shifted from small and mid-cap dominance to large-cap dominance throughout the week. During the significant market adjustment on March 3, the gap between small and large caps quickly narrowed. Since then, the rotation intensity between small and large caps has fluctuated slightly, but overall, large caps have shown relative resilience while small caps face greater adjustment pressure. Due to the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing's regulatory restrictions on excessive speculation and strict investigation and punishment of those riding on hot topics and speculative concepts, along with the uncertainty of the prolonged US-Iran impact, it is expected to have a certain impact on thematic investment topics that have a relatively high proportion of small and mid-caps, necessitating vigilance against the risk of declining risk appetite.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-sAgn6-fnIebShOdYWYia4jQ1kLpIcv6kECHbLOWMjiYAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-sAgn6-fnIebShOdYWYia4jQ1kLpIcv6kECHbLOWMjiYAA/641"/>
In terms of thematic rotation, from Monday to Thursday, there were no significant structural changes among the themes, with rare earth permanent magnets, nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy, and quantum performing well, and the rotation intensity MA5 falling below μ-σ; on Friday, driven by the recovery of innovative drugs and Hengke, as well as the adjustment of rare earth permanent magnets, the thematic rotation intensity saw a slight rebound. Based on historical observations, when the rotation intensity MA5 falls below μ-σ, it often experiences a phase of rebound, and structurally, attention can be focused on lagging themes
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxZripYneVwACy5qinoRehR53aAyoXpfWOAeFIuhHNiWUAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxZripYneVwACy5qinoRehR53aAyoXpfWOAeFIuhHNiWUAA/641"/>
Specifically, in the new energy sector related to hydrogen energy and energy storage, as well as new productive forces related to quantum and controllable nuclear fusion, there has been a capital emotional inflow that has even led to an overbought situation due to policy boosts, making them susceptible to market noise disturbances; currently, the left-side stagnation varieties mainly include AI applications and commercial aerospace. The funding for AI applications is still at the bottom, focusing on the potential catalysts brought by the hot OpenClaw and the upcoming release of Deepseek 4.0. Recent funding sentiment in commercial aerospace has shown significant recovery, but stock prices are generally consolidating, with attention on the first Shanghai Commercial Aerospace Conference and Exhibition; other broad-based indices can focus on the continued warming of funding sentiment in the sci-tech chip sector.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OPK97GkdN-fW6GbRc_-h1BkYkVLYRI_m9jAi69qUDpqo8AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OPK97GkdN-fW6GbRc_-h1BkYkVLYRI_m9jAi69qUDpqo8AA/641"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OyyxvkgsmMrTCq4_nL6hbfuAoQsz0PF6NIcqEJ1BV2eLkAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OyyxvkgsmMrTCq4_nL6hbfuAoQsz0PF6NIcqEJ1BV2eLkAA/641"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OM4rzKT8yOXy8w7qS7CjFetbRju_HsYHmo5FARX5PvGPoAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OM4rzKT8yOXy8w7qS7CjFetbRju_HsYHmo5FARX5PvGPoAA/641"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/ODy2ABCzZKxXMfwCANGyMMup_tKLM54m2RpNSL_SzvJw0AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/ODy2ABCzZKxXMfwCANGyMMup_tKLM54m2RpNSL_SzvJw0AA/641"/>
The full report and related database are available upon request.
Risk Analysis
<ol>
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Risk appetite declines beyond expectations: If the intensity and duration of military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran exceed expectations, the risks of global stagflation and recession may increase, leading to a potential decline in global equity asset risk appetite.
</li>
<li>
Industry progress falls short of expectations: If the progress of related thematic industries does not meet expectations, uncertainties regarding mass production timelines or commercialization may lead to significant stock price fluctuations.
</li>
<li>
There may be errors in data statistics.
</li>
</ol>
Content excerpted from: &#34;Thematic Rotation Intensity May Have Recovery, Focus on Potential Catalysts in Low-Level Stagnation Sectors - Thematic Weekly Observation&#34;
Report Date: 2025/03/10
Securities Analyst: Chen Guo, S1160525040001
Securities Analyst: Yang Zeyu, S1160525100001
Contact Person: Yang Zeyu

The intensity of theme rotation may recover, and the potential catalysts for low-performing sectors deserve attention. Last week, the market was mainly influenced by policy games and external shocks, with theme sectors generally retreating, while hydrogen energy and quantum communication saw slight increases. Major funds experienced significant outflows, and the resource price increase chain and AI inflation became hot topics. The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed that excessive speculation would be restricted, which is expected to impact small and mid-cap theme investments. The rotation intensity has slightly rebounded, focusing on lagging themes, with AI applications and commercial aerospace as key areas

腾讯新闻 - 财经

The intensity of theme rotation may be repaired, focusing on the potential catalysts of low-level stagnant sectors - Weekly Theme Observation [East Money Strategy Chen Guo Team]