Daiwa: Nio's performance in the fourth quarter of last year was strong, expects a robust model cycle and urges "buy"

Daiwa Research Report indicates that Nio (09866.HK) will have strong performance in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 35 billion, representing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of 76% and 59%, respectively. The non-GAAP net profit recorded is RMB 728 million, while the third quarter reported a loss of RMB 2.8 billion. The full-year revenue for 2025 is expected to grow by 33% year-on-year to RMB 87 billion, with a non-GAAP net loss of RMB 12 billion, narrowing by 39% year-on-year.

Management guidance for Q1 2026 indicates delivery volume of 80,000 to 83,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 90% to 97%; total revenue is projected to be RMB 24.5 billion to RMB 25 billion, a year-on-year growth of 103% to 109%; expected sales volume growth is 40% to 50%, with plans to launch three new models within the year. Additionally, management guidance suggests that Nio could reach non-GAAP operating profit breakeven in 2026.

Based on the strong model cycle and ongoing cost-saving measures, the firm gives Nio's U.S. stock (NIO.US) a "Buy" rating