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China Economic Reporter Tan Zhijuan Beijing Report
&#34;Recently, our company exchanged some RMB for USD. If the USD amount is relatively large, our company generally exchanges it back to RMB through cross-border payment service providers, but we need to pay a certain handling fee,&#34; said the head of a foreign trade company in Guangdong in an interview with China Business News on March 11.
After the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate against the USD has continued to strengthen.
On March 10, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the RMB central parity rate against the USD was 6.8982, a significant increase of 176 basis points from the previous trading day, reaching a new high since April 25, 2023. On the same day, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate closed at 6.8718, up 465 basis points from the previous trading day.
On March 11, the RMB central parity rate against the USD was reported at 6.8917, an increase of 65 basis points from the previous trading day.
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, stated in an interview that &#34;the current appreciation of the RMB is the result of multiple internal and external factors.&#34;
Bai further analyzed that the first factor is the continuous weakening of the USD. After the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts in December 2025, market expectations for continued rate cuts in 2026 heated up, putting continuous pressure on the USD index.
Yang Delong, chief economist and fund manager at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, also stated that the Federal Reserve has made multiple interest rate cuts over the past year, and the market still expects further cuts in the second half of this year. Against this backdrop, the USD index has shown a noticeable decline, thereby supporting the appreciation of the RMB.
The second factor is the stable and improving economic fundamentals. China's economic operation remains generally stable and shows a trend of improvement, with the demand for foreign exchange settlement significantly stronger than seasonal levels by the end of 2025. Before and after the National Two Sessions, market expectations for a series of stable growth policies have heated up, boosting market confidence.
The third factor is capital flow. Changes in the global geopolitical landscape have highlighted the safe-haven attributes of RMB assets, attracting some overseas capital inflows. At the same time, domestic companies previously held a large number of long USD positions, and the recent appreciation of the RMB has triggered a short covering of USD positions, increasing the market's foreign exchange settlement volume, which has formed a positive feedback loop of &#34;appreciation - settlement - further appreciation&#34; to some extent.
Yang Delong believes that the current round of RMB appreciation is the result of multiple factors working together and reflects the continued optimism of global capital towards RMB assets.
Not only is global capital optimistic about the RMB, but the use of the RMB by global enterprises is also becoming increasingly widespread. A recent report released by Standard Chartered Bank shows that the use of the RMB by global enterprises in trade and supply chain areas is continuously expanding. About 23% of the revenue and 25% of the costs of the surveyed enterprises involve RMB exposure, while only 14% of the debt is denominated in RMB. There is still a certain gap between enterprises' operational exposure and financing strategies, indicating that there is still significant room for expansion of the RMB in the field of corporate financing. This report is based on a survey of nearly 300 large enterprises across 19 global industries
Standard Chartered Bank Managing Director and Head of China Open and Renminbi Internationalization Team, Wu Yasi, stated in an interview: &#34;An increasing number of global enterprises are now widely using the Renminbi in cross-border trade, procurement, and supply chain processes. As the infrastructure of the cross-border Renminbi market continues to improve and liquidity continues to rise, the use of Renminbi is increasingly driven by the operational needs of enterprises, including trade settlement and currency matching for balance sheets.&#34;
Regarding exchange rate policy, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated at the economic-themed press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 6 that the Renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar this year, which is related to the continuous improvement of our economy, the overall weakening of the US dollar index, and the seasonal foreign exchange settlement by enterprises. Currently, the bilateral exchange rate level of the Renminbi against the US dollar is in the median range of recent years.
Looking ahead, interviewed experts generally expect that the Renminbi exchange rate will likely continue to exhibit a pattern of two-way fluctuations and overall moderate appreciation.
Lin Xianping, Associate Professor at Zhejiang University City College and Executive Deputy Secretary-General of the China Urban Experts Think Tank Committee, stated in an interview: &#34;In the future, the Renminbi exchange rate is likely to continue the pattern of two-way fluctuations and moderate appreciation, with the exchange rate center possibly in the range of 6.85 to 6.95.&#34;
From an annual trend perspective, Bai Wenxi expects that the Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate will show two-way fluctuations and maintain basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level.
Minyin Research also stated that looking ahead, against the backdrop of a stable and improving domestic economic fundamental, the attractiveness of Renminbi assets will continue to rise, and the Renminbi exchange rate is expected to return to a pattern of both appreciation and depreciation with two-way fluctuations.
Regarding foreign trade enterprises, Lin Xianping stated that for those relying on US dollar settlements, the appreciation of the Renminbi is both an opportunity and a challenge, and enterprises should adhere to the principle of exchange rate risk neutrality.
Bai Wenxi suggested that foreign trade enterprises should abandon one-sided betting thinking and use a variety of methods, including comprehensive financial derivatives, optimizing settlement methods, natural hedging, and adjusting operational structures, to transform exchange rate fluctuations from a &#34;cost item&#34; into an opportunity to enhance risk management capabilities, achieving stable operations in a complex and changing international environment.
(Editor: Hao Cheng Review: Zhu Ziyun Proofreading: Zhang Guogang)

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The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continues to strengthen, with the midpoint rate reported at 6.8982 on March 10, reaching a new high for 2023. Analysts believe that the appreciation of the RMB is influenced by multiple factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, improving economic fundamentals, and capital flows. The market's expectations for stable growth policies have boosted confidence, and global geopolitical changes have also attracted foreign capital inflows, creating a positive feedback loop

腾讯新闻 - 财经

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The RMB central parity rate has been significantly adjusted upward to a new high, and it is expected to continue a two-way fluctuation pattern in the future