From January to February, exports increased significantly year-on-year to 21.8%, and import growth rose to 19.8%. Specifically, the year-on-year export growth rates for January and February were 10% and 39.6%, respectively, with export growth significantly exceeding expectations.
The late Spring Festival and low base are the main reasons for the unexpected export growth. Generally, the later the Spring Festival, the longer the delivery time for enterprises, resulting in higher export growth. Based on seasonal adjustments around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate for February, after adjusting for the Spring Festival, is around 10%, lower than the pre-adjustment rate of 39.6%. The low base from last year is also one of the reasons for the high export growth in January and February this year, as the year-on-year export growth rate for January and February 2025 was only 2.1%, below the average annual growth rate of 5.5%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cb8f5618-a9e1-4a72-b40a-05de766dec55.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cb8f5618-a9e1-4a72-b40a-05de766dec55.jpeg"/>
Aside from short-term factors, China's integrated circuit exports grew by 72.6% year-on-year from January to February, leading among various subcategories. Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components increased by 20.6%, cumulatively boosting export growth by 4.5 percentage points.
Driven by demand, the export prices of AI-related products have also seen significant increases. From January to February, the export price of integrated circuits rose by 55.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the export volume growth rate of 13.7%. The export price index for the motor and electrical equipment industry rose from -4% in March 2025 to 5.3% in December 2025. The PPI for electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose year-on-year from -2.4% in June 2025 to 0.8% and -1.6% in January 2026, while the computer and electronic equipment manufacturing sector rose from -2.4% to -0.9% in February 2026.
Excluding mainland China, other East Asian regions also experienced high export growth, with a commonality of high proportions of AI-related products. From January to February, exports from Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam grew by 44.5%, 31.3%, and 18.3%, respectively, significantly higher than last year's levels. In January, Hong Kong and Japan's year-on-year export growth rates were 33.8% and 16.8%, showing strong performance.
Integrated circuits and automatic data processing machines and their subordinate units accounted for 33% and 29% of Taiwan's exports, with export growth of 43.6% and 95.5% from January to February, collectively boosting export growth by 34.6 percentage points. The export growth rate for storage media and switches also exceeded 50%. Semiconductors and computers accounted for 26.9% of South Korea's exports, with year-on-year export growth soaring by 130% from January to February, collectively boosting export growth by 35 percentage points. In Vietnam, computers, electronic products, and components accounted for 20% of export value, with an export growth rate of 40.9%, contributing to an 8 percentage point increase in year-on-year export growth.
In contrast, regions with low AI relevance, such as India and Australia, saw January export growth rates of only 0.6% and -0.9%, sharply contrasting with the East Asian AI circle
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8a1aaf30-0b63-4ac4-b8b7-4fce7665fee6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8a1aaf30-0b63-4ac4-b8b7-4fce7665fee6.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/83fc37d6-bbce-40fe-a110-cd108e78896b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/83fc37d6-bbce-40fe-a110-cd108e78896b.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ca2322e1-63f6-48a5-bb6c-d9067074214a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ca2322e1-63f6-48a5-bb6c-d9067074214a.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2bc41d65-c764-44ef-bf24-d0ae12325f8c.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2bc41d65-c764-44ef-bf24-d0ae12325f8c.jpeg"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/de46b811-d724-46b6-af10-eb1c8d3ac28c.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/de46b811-d724-46b6-af10-eb1c8d3ac28c.jpeg"/>
Overall, the global AI investment cycle is continuing to drive high growth in global AI trade, with regions such as Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China, which have a high proportion of AI trade, experiencing significant export growth. China's high export growth in commodities such as semiconductors, new energy, power infrastructure, electronic components, and fine chemicals is supported by China's industrial chain advantages and resonates with the emerging &#34;HALO&#34; trade (heavy assets, low elimination) involving physical assets. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts disrupting supply chains have made China's export data increasingly exhibit &#34;HALO&#34; characteristics.
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China's exports in January-February 2023 saw a significant year-on-year growth of 21.8%, while import growth was 19.8%. The late timing of the Spring Festival and a low base were the main driving factors. Integrated circuit exports grew by 72.6%, becoming the main driver of growth, and the export prices of AI-related products also rose significantly. Other regions in East Asia, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam, also showed strong export performance, indicating high demand for AI-related products

- In January and February, China's exports surged 21.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 19.8%, driven largely by a delayed Lunar New Year and low baselines from the previous year.  
- Notably, semiconductor exports rose by 72.6%, significantly pushing overall export growth, while AI-related product prices also soared, with integrated circuit prices increasing 55.7% year-on-year.  
- In contrast, regions with lower AI trade intensity, such as India and Australia, showed minimal export growth, highlighting a distinct disparity influenced by the ongoing global AI investment cycle.

The "HALO" Moment of China's Exports