The U.S. blockade of Iran's Strait of Hormuz and the strikes on Hark Island are pushing the global energy market toward the most severe supply crisis in decades.
Major Wall Street institutions such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and RBC Capital Markets collectively issued warnings this week, expecting the supply gap to widen sharply in the coming days, with a risk of further significant increases in oil prices.
Meanwhile, shortages of refined products such as diesel and aviation fuel have begun to spread to the real economy, causing energy prices to soar across Asia, Europe, and North America. Brent crude oil has risen by about 40% since the U.S. launched its war, surpassing the $100 per barrel mark.
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According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump stated on social media on the evening of the 13th that the U.S. military has launched &#34;intense airstrikes&#34; on military targets at Iran's oil export hub, Hark Island. He also warned that if Iran obstructs any vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will destroy the island's oil facilities. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a strong statement on Thursday, declaring that the blockade of the strait will continue and warning the world to prepare for oil prices of $200 per barrel.
<h2>Supply Gap Widens Rapidly, Shortages of Refined Products Spread to Real Economy</h2>
JP Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva noted in a research report that by next weekend, the reduction in crude oil supply is expected to approach 12 million barrels per day, &#34;the gap will be highly visible in the physical market.&#34; She also warned that the market is facing severe shortages of diesel, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha, &#34;these products cannot be consumed at all because they simply do not exist.&#34;
Goldman Sachs estimates that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from normal levels of over 19 million barrels per day to about 600,000 barrels— the latter being close to a fraction of U.S. total oil production. This narrow waterway typically carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
U.S. gasoline retail prices rose to $3.63 per gallon on Friday, marking the 13th consecutive trading day of increases, approaching the psychologically significant $4 per gallon mark.
<h2>Investment Banks Raise Oil Price Forecasts, Impacting Historical Highs</h2>
RBC Capital Markets stated that it expects oil prices to surpass the $128 per barrel high set just weeks after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and is likely to challenge the historical record of about $147 from 2008. The bank's global commodities head, Helima Croft, indicated that RBC is revising its forecasts regarding the duration of the Iran war and its impact on oil prices, with the conflict potentially &#34;continuing into next spring.&#34;
The war has entered its third week. Trump stated that Washington has &#34;unlimited ammunition&#34; and can &#34;fight Iran forever.&#34; Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike energy infrastructure in the Gulf region and has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, an Iranian drone attacked the Dubai financial district, causing market panic, while several European countries sought to negotiate with Tehran to push for the reopening of the strait
Daleep Singh, who previously served as Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs in the Biden administration, stated, &#34;The new supreme leader clearly has no intention of negotiating until he demands a heavier price to rebuild deterrence.&#34;
<h2>Emergency measures from all parties fail to mask market concerns, with Asia being the hardest hit</h2>
The Trump administration has taken several measures to stabilize the market, including proposing naval escorts and emergency insurance for tankers crossing the Strait, easing some sanctions on Russian oil, and coordinating with other G7 countries to release strategic oil reserves at record levels. However, these measures have not effectively curbed the market's pessimistic expectations.
Asian countries, heavily reliant on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz, are particularly hard hit. Australia announced on Friday that it would release domestic fuel reserves to address potential supply shortages and panic buying.
Jim Krane from Rice University's Baker Institute stated, &#34;A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should have been the doomsday scenario for the oil market, and the situation may get worse.&#34; Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned, &#34;Higher energy prices will begin to affect consumer behavior, leading people to reduce discretionary spending such as air travel and road trips.&#34;

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, and Halk Island has been attacked, causing Brent crude oil to surge 40% within three weeks, breaking the $100 mark. JP Morgan warns that the supply gap will approach 12 million barrels per day next week; Goldman Sachs data shows that oil flow through the strait has plummeted from 19 million barrels to 600,000 barrels. RBC expects to challenge the historical high of $147 per barrel, as the global energy market is sliding into the most severe supply crisis in decades

- The ongoing U.S. blockade of Iran's Hormuz Strait and strikes on Hark Island are causing a severe energy supply crisis globally.  
- Major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, predict the supply gap will widen drastically, pushing oil prices beyond $100 per barrel and impacting diesel and aviation fuel availability.  
- Efforts to stabilize the market, such as naval escorts for tankers and releasing strategic reserves, have failed to assuage fears, especially in Asia, which relies heavily on energy imports through the Strait.

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Wall Street "Fully Turns"! Multiple Investment Banks Warn "Iran War Triggers Long-term Energy Crisis"