Host | Yin Xing
Highly Focused on Three Directions
Host: This week, the price increase chain continues to fluctuate upward, and the performance of power equipment is also exceptionally bright. Are you still optimistic about these two sectors, Xiao Fan?
Fan Zhou: We must be optimistic! Both power equipment and the price increase chain benefit from the trend of rising oil prices. The situation in the Middle East is currently in a stalemate and won't ease up anytime soon.
Host: Although it won't ease in the short term, oil prices have indeed experienced wide fluctuations this week.
Fan Zhou: I believe this wide fluctuation is due to the correction of the short-term extreme overbought conditions. From last Friday to this Monday, in just two trading days, crude oil prices rose from $78 to $119. A more than 50% increase in two days is extremely rare in history. This has led to serious overbought conditions in both the short and medium term for crude oil, and a correction is necessary to go further.
Host: Understood! Anyway, you still have a bullish trend outlook on crude oil. This week, tech stocks performed average.
Fan Zhou: Compared to the two sectors mentioned above, it is indeed average. But there are still highlights. The optical communication index reached a new high this week. The stage increase may not be much, but the overall trend is still in a fluctuating upward movement. Also, power equipment was part of the tech sector in the last bull market. Currently, it may not be considered tech for us, but for other countries, power equipment is an insurmountable technology, or we can say it is the mother of technology. Without electricity, how can technology be used? That is the core!
Host: Alright! Anyway, the three directions you are highly focused on remain the same. How do you view the index?
Fan Zhou: The index has no clear direction in the short term. Don't think it's weak! You should know that against the backdrop of rising crude oil prices and the simultaneous rebound of the dollar, other markets, such as South Korea, Japan, and even the US stock market, have also experienced significant fluctuations. We are merely experiencing a low opening rebound and a narrow consolidation at high levels, which is already quite strong! Anyway, this round of the bull market has not ended; it's just that the subsequent time and space will be slightly adjusted due to the rise in oil prices. This rise in oil prices is a sudden systemic risk, and I will spend some time discussing this topic with everyone in Beijing at the end of March. After all, this will have a profound impact on various global asset classes and major stock markets.
Resilience Remains, Courage Lacks
Host: The spring market has been ongoing for three months. Xiao Xiao, can you make a judgment on whether we are nearing the end of this rhythm?
Hai Feng Ruo Yu Xiao Xiao: The time-space factors of the spring market also need to distinguish between bull and bear markets, and there is a very obvious characteristic of &#34;long bull, short bear.&#34; According to statistical data from the past 20 years, the average duration of the spring market in a bull market is 52 trading days, with the longest being the bull market of 2007, where the spring market continued until May 30 when the stamp duty was adjusted, lasting 72 trading days. As of this Thursday, the spring market has lasted for 55 trading days (taking December 16 of last year as the benchmark), which clearly falls within the average range of the spring market in a bull market. In the last three years, the post-meeting market has continued a round of offensive, for example, in 2023, it continued until late April, and in 2025, it continued until late March
Host: How will this year be?
Hai Feng Ruo Yu Xiao Xiao: This year's situation is somewhat special; regional conflicts are currently a problem, and there are no signs of relief in the short term. The high volatility of oil prices has almost hit the &#34;fatal flaw&#34; of overseas markets, and the S&amp;P 500 is clearly testing its annual line. The major tariff fluctuations from late February to early April 2025 have also dragged us down, which everyone should remember vividly. Currently, it can be observed that due to the strong performance of heavyweight stocks like CATL and PetroChina, the market's resilience is still relatively strong. Last week, we discussed the impact of regional conflicts on our market, with the main beneficiaries being the power grid, new energy, and chemicals, while the main losses are in sectors closely related to overseas markets, such as chips and computing power. This week, the structural market trend has further deepened, with two directions starting to diverge, evolving into a &#34;K-shaped&#34; structure. Since the technology growth sector has always been the market's popularity leader, although the index maintains resilience, the &#34;guts&#34; are already insufficient, making it difficult to form an upward synergy.
Insights from the Booming Power Grid
Host: This week is quite challenging, with war-related concept stocks and tech stocks oscillating. What do you think should be done?
Jiao Yang: It is essential to strictly set stop-loss orders to ensure account safety. In the short term, it is indeed difficult to operate. I think, apart from short-term trading, we should pay attention to three points logically: 1. Core domestic computing power stocks, using the adjustment opportunity to find suitable layout points for oneself; the process of AI localization will not be changed. 2. The energy and chemical sector, looking for varieties that benefit from the war but are not affected by a ceasefire, such as those that benefit from &#34;anti-involution&#34; and have controllable raw materials, which can likely ensure high growth in performance over the next 1-2 years. 3. If you really can't do it, take a good rest and patiently wait for the situation to stabilize.
Host: You detailed the power grid and energy self-sufficiency last week, and this week it has been booming, even traditional power has been excavated by funds. What insights does this bring to the market?
Jiao Yang: Traditional power mostly overlaps with future energy, so it has long-term logic, and most varieties have not risen in the past year, making it very easy for funds to pull up the resistance. In the future, funds are likely to look for targets from the perspective of previous stagnation.
Host: For example?
Jiao Yang: State-owned infrastructure or core local infrastructure. They haven't risen in the past year, and their valuations are very low.
(This article was published in the March 14 issue of the Securities Market Weekly. The individual stocks mentioned are for analysis purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.)

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This week's price increase chain continues to fluctuate upward, with power equipment performing well, benefiting from the trend of rising oil prices. Although oil prices have experienced wide fluctuations in the short term, the overall trend remains optimistic. Technology stocks performed moderately, with the optical communication index reaching a new high. The index has no clear direction in the short term, but the market remains strong against the backdrop of soaring crude oil prices and a rebound in the dollar. The spring market has lasted for three months, and attention should be paid to the distinction between bull and bear markets

Folk Wisdom | The Structural Market Trend Further Deepens