Media reports "How Trump decided to launch the war against Iran," regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela, and plans to end the war

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 14th that Trump, knowing that it could trigger a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and impact the global energy market, insisted on launching a military strike against Iran, while the expectation of a quick regime change has been shattered by reality, and the end of the war remains distant. According to the report, the U.S.-Israel joint military operation was launched on February 28 and has resulted in at least 13 American soldiers' deaths, with over 1,300 casualties on the Iranian side. Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz—a key waterway that carries 20% of global oil exports—and the newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to continue the blockade. Last Friday, Trump announced the bombing of the important oil export hub of Kharg Island in Iran to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait. The war has now entered its third week, and Trump remains "resolute." According to media reports citing a senior White House official, the internal timeline being considered by the White House is to continue for another four to six weeks. Meanwhile, Trump faces pressure from Republican allies and external advisors to end the conflict quickly, and Gulf allies are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction—Iran's strikes on civilian targets such as refining facilities and hotels are shaking external confidence in the commercial safety of the Gulf region. Knowing the Risks of Hormuz, Still Insisting on War According to The Wall Street Journal, before the U.S.-Israel joint operation was launched, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine had repeatedly briefed Trump, warning that a U.S. attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant disruption to the global economy. Trump acknowledged that this was a possibility but still decided to push forward with the action. His judgment was: Tehran would likely surrender before it had the capability to block the strait or cause significant economic damage; even if the situation escalated, the U.S. military would be capable of responding. However, the developments have contradicted expectations. Iran not only blocked the strait but also launched missiles and drones across a wide area from Azerbaijan to Oman. Reports indicate that the scale of Iran's retaliatory actions surprised Trump and some advisors. Military Confidence is the Core Driving Force of Decision-Making The Wall Street Journal cited government officials and insiders stating that the core logic driving Trump to go to war is his deep confidence in the U.S. military's ability to achieve a decisive victory quickly. Trump often publicly praises the combat effectiveness of the military and has a particular appreciation for General Caine, frequently referring to him by his nickname "Razin Caine." Despite setbacks in the conflict, Trump maintains confidence in military missions in public appearances. However, the costs continue to accumulate. The deaths of 13 American soldiers make this war against Iran the deadliest military action during Trump's two terms. The Venezuela Experience Strengthened the Fantasy of Regime Change Reports indicate that last summer's "Midnight Hammer" operation targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities convinced Trump that he could bomb Iran, endure a brief backlash, and then personally lead the exit strategy. The action to overthrow Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January further reinforced Trump's judgment—that by supporting a moderate successor through precisely executed military actions, a quick regime change could be achieved without triggering broader instability But this time the outcome in Iran is completely different. The joint strike by the U.S. and Israel killed Iran's supreme leader Khamenei, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei immediately succeeded him, publicly vowing to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself also expressed regret, stating that this military action killed Iranian leaders who could have potentially fostered friendly relations between Iran and the United States. Decision-making in a small circle, excluding dissenting voices According to The Wall Street Journal, the planning for military action against Iran was conducted within a very small circle, involving participants such as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, bypassing the standard decision-making process that typically involves multiple rounds of review by the National Security Council, written proposals, and interdepartmental opinions. This approach helps reduce leaks and speed up decision-making, but it also compresses the range of opinions and dissenting voices that Trump can consider when assessing the risks of going to war. According to U.S. officials, some key questions remain unanswered, including: how to evacuate American citizens in the event of an escalation of conflict, and how to ensure that Iran's next leader maintains friendly relations with Washington. No clear timetable for the end of the war Although Trump has repeatedly stated that the war "could end soon" and has declared victory, The Wall Street Journal reports that a senior White House official indicated that Trump is currently "firm," with an internal consideration of a timetable to maintain the situation for another four to six weeks. Last Friday, Trump stated that he would end the war when he instinctively senses that the time is right. Currently, he is under pressure from external advisors, within the Republican Party (facing a difficult midterm election situation), and from Gulf allies to terminate the conflict as soon as possible