"Forecast" Brokers expect Tencent's adjusted net profit in the fourth quarter of last year to rise by over 16%, focusing on AI strategy and capital expenditure plans (Update)
Tencent (00700.HK) will announce its fourth-quarter results for last year tomorrow (18th). Driven by the stable performance of the evergreen game "Honor of Kings," the rising revenue from secondary games like "Delta Action," and growth in advertising revenue, a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages estimates that Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 61.16 billion and RMB 67.945 billion, compared to RMB 55.312 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% to 22.8%, with a median of RMB 64.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.4%.
According to a comprehensive forecast from 8 brokerages, Tencent's net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 50.863 billion and RMB 58.917 billion, compared to RMB 51.324 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a year-on-year decline of 0.9% to an increase of 14.8%, with a median of RMB 53.616 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. A comprehensive forecast from 14 brokerages indicates that Tencent's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 191.627 billion and RMB 197.739 billion, compared to RMB 172.446 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.1% to 14.7%, with a median of RMB 193.514 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.
Recently, there have been concerns in the market regarding Tencent's development in artificial intelligence. However, with Tencent announcing the formal integration of the QQ open platform into the OpenClaw AI agent platform, it has sparked a new wave of "lobster" enthusiasm among Chinese internet users, which is expected to quickly educate its users on using AI agents, allowing it to accumulate user behavior data that will aid in the development and evolution of systems and agent platforms within the WeChat ecosystem in the future. The market is paying attention to Tencent's latest AI strategies, AI budgets and capital expenditures, whether AI mini-programs will connect e-commerce, travel, and local life scenarios, as well as management's comments on macro outlook, regulatory environment, game product line planning, advertising market sentiment, and advertising load, along with the latest performance of video accounts and WeChat AI search.
JP Morgan believes that investors should focus on AI signals that can simultaneously influence market sentiment and fundamentals: this year's capital expenditure intensity and progress, visibility of GPU/AI chip procurement and supply, specific progress and iteration frequency of foundational model quality (especially multimodal and reasoning capabilities), and empirical evidence of monetization driven by distribution through WeChat search, information flow, and mini-program workflows, as well as improvements in advertising technology efficiency, such as targeted delivery, creative automation, and return on investment, along with the impact of expanding these plans on profit margins and operating costs.
【Market Focus on Tencent's AI Investment Plans】
Citigroup predicts that Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of last year will increase by 17% year-on-year to RMB 64.7 billion, with a profit margin of 33.7%. Quarterly revenue is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to RMB 191.9 billion. Among them, online game revenue is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to RMB 56.7 billion, while domestic and international game revenues are expected to increase by 14% and 18%, reaching RMB 37.8 billion and RMB 18.8 billion, respectively Online advertising revenue is expected to increase by 17% year-on-year to RMB 41 billion, while fintech and enterprise services revenue is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year to RMB 59.8 billion. This includes RMB 14.2 billion in cloud business revenue and RMB 45.5 billion in fintech revenue, which are expected to grow by 18% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. The bank indicated that the company has recently restructured its artificial intelligence team and accelerated the model update process, expecting management to share the latest AI strategy during the earnings release and hoping to see the "agent AI" WeChat ecosystem upgraded.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of last year will increase by 11% year-on-year to RMB 61.2 billion, with quarterly revenue expected to rise by 12% year-on-year to RMB 192.7 billion. Among them, value-added services revenue is expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, and online gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16.7%, reflecting domestic and international game growth of 12.5% and 25.4%, respectively, benefiting from an estimated 17% total revenue growth in the first three quarters of last year based on deferred revenue, and considering the non-recurring income from copyright sales and mergers and acquisitions in the third quarter of last year. According to Sensor Tower data, "Delta Force" set a new revenue record last November, while the annualized revenue of the mobile game "Valorant" remained stable, offsetting declines in evergreen games such as "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Dungeon & Fighter." The bank predicts that quarterly advertising revenue will grow by 18.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by upgrades in AI advertising technology. Due to weakness in fintech, fintech and enterprise services revenue is expected to grow by 7.5% year-on-year. Business payments will drag down fintech revenue. Despite GPU supply constraints, enterprise services revenue growth is still expected to accelerate to 17%.
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages, Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 61.16 billion and RMB 67.945 billion, compared to RMB 55.312 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% to 22.8%, with a median of RMB 64.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%.
Brokerage│2025 Q4 Non-International Financial Reporting Standards Net Profit (RMB) Forecast│Year-on-Year Change
CICC│RMB 67.945 billion│+22.8%
JP Morgan│RMB 65.606 billion│+18.6%
Haitong International│RMB 65.301 billion│+18.1%
BOCI│RMB 65.044 billion│+17.6%
Citi│RMB 64.752 billion│+17.1%
Citi│RMB 64.504 billion│+16.6%
Huatai Securities│RMB 64.3 billion│+16.2%
Nomura│RMB 63.878 billion│+15.5%
Daiwa│RMB 62.636 billion│+13.2% Goldman Sachs │ RMB 62.551 billion │ +13.1%
CICC │ RMB 62.022 billion │ +12.1%
Morgan Stanley │ RMB 61.16 billion │ +10.6%
Calculated based on the company's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit of RMB 55.312 billion for Q4 2024.
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According to the forecasts of 8 brokerages, Tencent's net profit for Q4 2025 is expected to be between RMB 50.863 billion and RMB 58.917 billion, compared to RMB 51.324 billion for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% to an increase of 14.8%, with a median of RMB 53.616 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.
Brokerage │ Q4 2025 Net Profit Forecast (RMB) │ Year-on-Year Change
CICC │ RMB 58.917 billion │ +14.8%
BOCI │ RMB 56.282 billion │ +9.7%
Haitong International │ RMB 54.312 billion │ +5.8%
Citi │ RMB 54.01 billion │ +5.2%
Goldman Sachs │ RMB 53.221 billion │ +3.7%
Citi │ RMB 51.756 billion │ +0.8%
CICC │ RMB 51.372 billion │ +0.1%
Morgan Stanley │ RMB 50.863 billion │ -0.9%
Calculated based on the company's net profit of RMB 51.324 billion for Q4 2024.
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According to the forecasts of 14 brokerages, Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to be between RMB 191.627 billion and RMB 197.739 billion, compared to RMB 172.446 billion for the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1% to 14.7%, with a median of RMB 193.514 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.
Brokerage │ Q4 2025 Revenue Forecast (RMB) │ Year-on-Year Change
Goldman Sachs │ RMB 197.739 billion │ +14.7%
Citi │ RMB 195.722 billion │ +13.5%
Haitong International │ RMB 195.137 billion │ +13.2%
BOCI │ RMB 195.133 billion │ +13.2%
Huatai Securities │ RMB 194.4 billion │ +12.7%
JP Morgan │ RMB 193.71 billion │ +12.3%
Daiwa │ RMB 193.554 billion │ +12.2%
Nomura │ RMB 193.474 billion │ +12.2%
CICC │ RMB 193.247 billion │ +12.1%
CICC │ RMB 193.226 billion │ +12.1%
Morgan Stanley │ RMB 192.725 billion │ +11.8% BNP Paribas │ CNY 192.714 billion │ +11.8%
Citigroup │ CNY 191.882 billion │ +11.3%
Bank of America Securities │ CNY 191.627 billion │ +11.1%
Calculated based on the company's revenue of CNY 172.446 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024
