<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><div> <h2>Key Points</h2><ul><li>Bitcoin is a scarce store of value.</li><li>Similar assets tend to do well during times of war.</li><li>One crypto insider is convincingly disputing that view.</li><li>10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›</li></ul>When a major conflict or war breaks out, many investors respond by running toward hard assets like gold or land -- anything that can't be conjured from thin air by a government with urgent bills to pay.Thus, you might expect that the U.S. conflict with Iran would have crypto insiders scrambling to load up on scarce assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). But not Arthur Hayes, a famous crypto investor and the co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, who said on the Coin Stories podcast on March 10 that he would not put even a single dollar into the coin right now.Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »He also claimed that the widespread idea that war is favorable for Bitcoin is inaccurate. So what exactly is it that's stopping him from buying the coin here, if not the attack on Iran?<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/>Image source: Getty Images. <h2>Money printing tends to move Bitcoin</h2>Elaborating on his Bitcoin stance, Hayes argued that war is not something that lifts Bitcoin's price -- it's the money printing that wars sometimes generate that sends the coin higher. Hayes says that he will start buying Bitcoin again when the Federal Reserve starts running the presses, and also that the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk of there being a major plunge for Bitcoin as well as for stocks.Let's unpack what he's saying in a bit more detail.In short, the relationship between Bitcoin and what gives a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin its value comes down, in large part, to liquidity. When central banks expand the money supply (a broad measure of circulating cash, savings, and near-cash instruments), risk assets like crypto tend to climb. Bitcoin has tracked this pattern with unusual fidelity, and its bull markets have consistently overlapped with periods of expanding global liquidity, often with a lag period of a few months.But there's a problem with Hayes' model. The Fed isn't easing (increasing the amount of circulating money in the supply) right now, and it isn't hinting at it either.Consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year in February, and the potentially imminent energy shock from the disruption to oil traffic in the Iran-adjacent Strait of Hormuz threatens to push that figure frighteningly higher. If energy costs rise sharply and stay elevated, which is more and more likely with every day the conflict continues, inflation could reach 3% by year's end, well above the Fed's 2% target. Therefore at present it appears to be the case that the confrontation is making interest rate cuts less likely, not more, which is the opposite of what Hayes' thesis requires to green light buying Bitcoin.This means that investors waiting for a printing press signal before buying may be in for a long wait, and they might miss out on some gains as a result.<h2>Don't try to predict the future</h2>You don't need to tie yourself to taking the same approach to investing in Bitcoin as Arthur Hayes. It's actually probably best to take a longer-term perspective, because whether the Fed loosens policy this year, and regardless of the reasons for its course of action, Bitcoin's supply dynamics will continue to tighten on autopilot.Only about 450 new coins enter the market each day as a result of Bitcoin mining, and that figure will get cut in half at the next halving event in early 2028. Changes in liquidity might boost or depress the coin's prices between now and then, as well as afterward. No matter what happens, there will never again be as much new supply entering the market as there is now, so future buyers will be competing over a smaller quantity of coins, which biases the price to the upside over the very long term.Hayes may well be right that the optimal conditions for a Bitcoin macro-driven rally arrives after the Fed begins cutting rates. But most investors don't have the luxury of waiting for a perfect macro signal. The more practical approach is to build a position gradually by buying at regular intervals whether the price is up or down, and then hold it for years so as to capture the long-term tailwinds that scarcity provides. And that's what I will continue doing.The war doesn't make Bitcoin a buy, but its scarcity does. And scarcity doesn't need permission from the Federal Reserve to pay off, though it sure might help once in a while.<h2>Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?</h2> Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $508,877!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,115,328!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 936% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 189% for the S&amp;P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of March 19, 2026. Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. </div></div>

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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues against the common belief that war boosts Bitcoin prices. He states that it's not conflict but money printing that drives Bitcoin's value. Currently, the Federal Reserve is not easing monetary policy, which could hinder Bitcoin's price growth. Hayes suggests waiting for the Fed to increase liquidity before investing in Bitcoin. However, he acknowledges Bitcoin's scarcity as a long-term value driver, recommending a gradual investment approach regardless of short-term price fluctuations.

- Bitcoin is viewed as a scarce store of value, yet investor Arthur Hayes argues that war does not necessarily boost its price.  
- Instead, he links Bitcoin's value to money printing during conflicts, noting current market conditions do not indicate imminent easing from the Federal Reserve.  
- Hayes suggests a long-term investing approach, emphasizing Bitcoin's scarcity while cautioning that waiting for ideal market signals could result in missed gains.

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This Crypto Insider Is Waiting to Buy Bitcoin – and It Has Nothing to Do With War