Bitcoin, crude oil, and gold price movements and investment opportunities amid the US-Iran conflict

If the situation ultimately leads to compromise or a temporary easing, commodity prices may see a significant correction; conversely, gold and oil prices risk further surges. 1. Short-term and Long-term Trends of Bitcoin, Crude Oil, and Gold 1.1 Opening on Monday, March 2, 2026 On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched a joint airstrike against Iran, causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet to $63,000. Within hours, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in the airstrike, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded strongly, surging from a low of $63,000 to around $68,000. This move caused an $80 billion market capitalization fluctuation in just a few hours, coinciding with the weekend when liquidity was at its lowest. Approximately 157,000 traders were forced to liquidate their positions, resulting in a total loss of $657 million. During the sell-off, traders flocked to decentralized platforms to trade oil and gold perpetual contracts around the clock, seeking to hedge while traditional markets were closed. This flow of funds weakened the buying depth in cryptocurrencies, exacerbating downward pressure on Bitcoin as it desperately needed support. This interaction between cryptocurrency spot selling and commodity perpetual contract buying during weekend geopolitical shocks represents a relatively new market dynamic.Figure: 7-day trading data for tokenized gold and Bitcoin1.2 Long-term trend and correlation analysisFor a long time, Bitcoin has been regarded as a safe-haven asset and has also been called "digital gold". For example, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out at the end of February 2022, the market once believed that Russian funds might shift to crypto assets, and Bitcoin surged by about 20% in the short term, with the price once exceeding $45,000. In June 2025, when the geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran escalated, Bitcoin also showed a significant short-term increase.Figure: Comparison of US Implied CPI Year-on-Year Growth ExpectationsThe current market pricing logic is in a highly sensitive and volatile phase: if the situation ultimately leads to compromise or a temporary easing, a scenario similar to the "Venezuela incident" at the beginning of the year could repeat itself, then the previously accumulated geopolitical premium could be quickly given back, triggering a significant correction in commodity prices; conversely, if the conflict escalates in a spiral and spreads to a deeper level, gold and oil prices risk further surging.2.1.1 BTC and other crypto assetsImpact already caused:During the escalation of news regarding the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin prices experienced significant volatility. Looking at the chart structure (15-minute timeframe), BTC briefly dipped to around $63,000 before rebounding above $68,000, subsequently entering a period of high-level consolidation. Short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) repeatedly crossed with the medium-term moving average (MA30), indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment. Overall, the performance resembled that of "high-volatility risk assets" rather than stable safe-haven assets—a liquidity-driven sell-off occurred at the beginning of the conflict, followed by a rebound as risk assets recovered. This suggests that short-term funds prioritized reducing leverage and risk exposure in the face of geopolitical shocks. ... Chart: BTC/USDT 15min K-lineInstitutional Predictions:Mainstream institutions have differing opinions on BTC, but generally lean towards the logic of "short-term pressure, medium-term depending on liquidity":• Bloomberg Intelligence points out that in the early stages of geopolitical conflicts, the market usually adopts a "haven-first strategy" (prioritizing the purchase of traditional safe-haven assets), and crypto assets often fluctuate in the same direction as risky assets such as stocks, which may be under pressure in the short term. • JPMorgan's digital asset team previously noted in its geopolitical conflict research that Bitcoin behaves more like a "risk-averse asset," with its price more highly correlated with liquidity conditions, the US dollar index, and real interest rates, rather than being a purely safe-haven asset. • CoinShares Research, in its weekly fund flow report, pointed out that if conflict drives up oil prices and leads to a rebound in inflation expectations, thereby delaying the Fed's easing cycle, the crypto market may face temporary capital outflow pressure. • Standard Chartered's digital asset research department previously argued that in scenarios of extreme financial instability or increased sovereign risk, BTC may regain buying interest as an "alternative asset," but this logic typically lags behind the initial risk sell-off. Overall Assessment: • If the conflict remains regional and oil price increases are limited → BTC may maintain a high-volatility range. • If oil prices rise sharply and expectations of interest rate cuts are delayed → BTC may face liquidity pressure. • If the conflict triggers systemic concerns in the global financial system → BTC may receive buying to hedge credit risk in the second phase. 2.1.2 US Stocks Already Caused Impact: Against the backdrop of escalating US-Iran conflict, the Nasdaq clearly shows characteristics of risk assets under pressure. From a technical perspective, the index experienced a rapid decline after previously surging above 25,400 points. Subsequently, during the news-driven market reaction, a sharp, one-sided sell-off occurred, breaking through the previous consolidation range and reaching a low near 24,500 points. The 15-minute chart shows a typical pattern of "high-level weakness → breaking through structural support → weak rebound → new lows," with gradually decreasing rebound heights and a clear bearish rhythm. Technology stocks are sensitive to liquidity and interest rate expectations. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts leading to rising oil prices and inflation concerns, funds have significantly reduced their risk exposure, with growth stocks bearing the brunt of the pressure. Overall, this round of conflict has already compressed the Nasdaq's risk premium in the short term, and the market has shifted from "risk-on-rating" to "defense-first." Chart: NAS100/USDT 15min K-lineInstitutional Forecasts:• Bloomberg Intelligence points out that during the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, the market typically adopts a "risk-off + haven-first" strategy, with technology growth stocks often experiencing a correction first.• JPMorgan's global strategy team believes that if oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, it may limit the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts, thereby putting valuation pressure on highly valued technology stocks. • A Goldman Sachs strategy report points out that in the initial stages of a geopolitical shock, stock market volatility typically increases, with growth indices like the Nasdaq often experiencing larger pullbacks than the S&P 500. • Morgan Stanley previously stated in its risk scenario model that if energy prices continue to rise above a certain threshold, the risk of valuation compression for growth stocks increases. • Overall assessment: • If the conflict remains regional and oil prices remain stable → the Nasdaq may enter a period of high volatility and consolidation. • If oil prices break through a key range and push up inflation expectations → technology stocks may continue to be under pressure. • If the conflict quickly de-escalates → risk appetite recovers, and the Nasdaq may experience a technical rebound. From the current structure, the Nasdaq has entered a short-term downtrend channel. Its future direction will depend on oil price movements, changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and whether the conflict escalates further. US stocks are slightly affected by geopolitical sentiment in the short term, but in the long term, they will return to fundamentals and valuations. The risk of an AI bubble bursting is low; on the contrary, the application of AI technology in war is clearly beneficial to the US AI sector. 2.1.3 Gold (Gold / XAUT) Impact already caused: Against the backdrop of escalating US-Iran conflict, gold quickly exhibited typical safe-haven asset characteristics. From the market structure, gold prices experienced a vertical surge during the news's development phase, breaking through previous highs and reaching new highs in a short period, before entering a period of high-level consolidation. On the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, the moving averages show a bullish divergence structure, with prices repeatedly testing short-term moving averages before continuing their upward momentum, indicating strong capital inflows. Especially during periods of significant volatility in risk assets (such as BTC), gold has maintained relative strength, reflecting the safe-haven migration of funds during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, this round of conflict has clearly increased gold's "risk premium." Chart: XAUT/USDT 15min K-lineInstitutional Forecasts:• Bloomberg Intelligence points out that in a scenario of escalating conflict in the Middle East, gold is usually the preferred safe-haven asset, with funds flowing into gold and US Treasuries first, rather than crypto assets.• Goldman Sachs' commodities team previously pointed out in its geopolitical conflict model that if energy supply risks persist, gold will benefit from the dual drivers of "safe-haven demand + rising inflation expectations". JPMorgan's global macro strategy report suggests that if rising oil prices drive down real interest rate expectations or the US dollar weakens, gold may further test its historical highs. The World Gold Council, in its past geopolitical research, has pointed out that major military conflicts often significantly boost gold ETF inflows and net long positions in futures in the initial stages. Overall assessment: If the conflict remains regional → gold may maintain a high-level, slightly bullish structure. If the conflict continues to escalate and pushes up inflation expectations → gold may enter a trend-up phase, potentially breaking through $6,000/ounce. • If the conflict eases quickly → the safe-haven premium may be given back, and prices may retrace to key moving average support. 2.1.4 Oil Impact Already Caused: Against the backdrop of escalating US-Iran conflict, WTI crude oil experienced a typical "risk premium jump." Looking at the chart structure, oil prices rose rapidly after the news was triggered, briefly reaching above $75, before experiencing a sharp decline, falling to a low of around $69, and then entering a technical rebound phase, currently rising to the $72-$73 range. The 15-minute chart shows a structure of "emotional peak → rapid profit-taking → secondary correction," with significantly increased volatility. In the initial stages of the conflict, the market quickly priced in Middle East supply risks (especially shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz), pushing up risk premiums; the subsequent price decline reflected that some markets believed supply had not been substantially disrupted. Overall, this round of conflict has significantly widened the range of oil price fluctuations. [Image: Light Crude Oil Futures 15min K-line] Institutional Forecasts: • Goldman Sachs' commodities team points out that if the conflict continues but does not affect physical supply, oil prices may remain within the risk premium range; if the supply chain is disrupted, prices may rise further. JPMorgan Energy Research believes that during geopolitical conflicts, the key variable for oil prices is whether the Strait of Hormuz is substantially threatened; if transportation is restricted, prices could rise rapidly. Rystad Energy analysis indicates that if Middle Eastern supply experiences temporary disruptions, oil prices may enter a period of high volatility and rise to higher levels. Bloomberg Intelligence believes that the current rise in oil prices is more due to risk premiums than inventory changes, and future trends depend on whether the conflict substantially affects exports. Overall assessment: If the conflict remains a localized military strike and does not affect oil exports → WTI may maintain a range-bound movement between $70 and $75. • If transportation or production capacity is substantially affected, oil prices may break through the current high and enter a rapid upward trend. • If the conflict eases quickly, risk premiums will fall, and oil prices may retreat to the previous trading range. From the current structure, oil prices have completed the first round of emotional shock and are currently in a "recovery phase after high volatility." The subsequent direction will highly depend on news and the actual extent of supply damage. If the conflict intensifies and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, international crude oil prices may reach new highs. 2.2 Market Forecasting Perspective Analysis Based on the latest odds from Polymarket's relevant markets as an event tree, the geopolitical conflict of a US-Israeli invasion or escalation of attacks on Iran can be broken down into several key branches. 2.2.1 Event Tree(1) The market has a very low probability of predicting a "full-scale invasion"Polymarket has about 7% Yes ratings for "the US will invade Iran before March 31st". The market defines "invasion" as a US military offensive that establishes control over parts of Iran. This definition distinguishes between short-lived airstrikes, targeted strikes, escalation of proxy conflicts, and "ground occupation invasion", meaning the market prices the latter as a low-probability tail.2.2.1 Event Tree(1) The market predicts a very low probability of a "full-scale invasion"Polymarket has about 7% Yes ratings for "the US will invade Iran before March 31st".Figure: Predictions on whether the United States will invade Iran before March 31(2) Macro Core: The tail risk of the Strait of Hormuz being cut off is not lowCompared to a full-scale invasion, Polymarket's pricing for "Iran closing or severely restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31" is much higher: approximately 42% for March 31, approximately 44% for June 30, and approximately 49% for December 31. This is the core reason why commodity markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical news. The Hormuz is an energy choke point; Reuters cited analysis stating that over 20% of global crude oil passes through here, and a sustained disruption could push oil prices close to or even above $100 per barrel. Figure: Prediction that Iran will close or severely restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31(3) The duration of the conflict is expected to cool down within a few weeks, but a formal ceasefire will be laterIn terms of pace, Polymarket has a probability of about 47% that "the conflict will end before March 31", but it should be noted that this rule is determined by 14 consecutive days without new military operations.Figure: Prediction that the conflict will end before March 31Another more official prediction for a ceasefire is "when the US and Iran will reach a formal ceasefire agreement," with the market giving approximately 55% for before March 31 and approximately 71% for before April 30.Figure: Predictions on when the US and Iran will reach a formal ceasefire agreementThe combined message from these two markets is that traders are betting that the intensity of the conflict will subside within a few weeks, but the pricing of a final formal ceasefire will be placed at a later date.The combined message from these two markets is that traders are betting that the tensions surrounding the conflict will subside within a few weeks, but the final price for a formal ceasefire will be set for a later date.2.2.2 Asset Impact Forecast(1) Crude oil is the most direct geopolitical pricing assetIn this conflict, the pricing of crude oil is based on two overlapping logics: geopolitical risk premium and supply and transportation disruption. The former is driven by the escalation of the conflict and the increase in shipping risk, while the latter depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz is restricted and whether oil and gas facilities are attacked, which will determine whether oil prices will be pushed to a more extreme right tail.In the short term, the market considers the continued rise in oil prices as a "consensus." Even if a complete blockade does not ultimately occur, as long as "shipping/insurance/detour costs" increase, the risk premium of oil will also rise significantly in the short term. Polymarket predicts a 99% probability of crude oil rising today (March 2nd); it also gives a 64% probability of reaching $80, a 32% probability of reaching $90, a 16% probability of reaching $100, and a 10% probability of reaching $110 by the end of March. Figure: Probability of Crude Oil Rising on March 2Figure: Forecast of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation at the End of March（2）Gold BenefitFigure: Gold Price Forecast Before the End of JuneFor gold, the key may not be whether it will rise, but rather the structure of its upward momentum. If the conflict cools down within weeks as predicted by the market, gold may enter a period of high-level consolidation; if the Hormuz risk continues to rise and triggers reflation in oil prices, gold may experience a second wave of upward momentum driven by the repricing of inflation expectations and policy paths. (3) BTC is more risk-oriented in the short term. In geopolitical conflicts, BTC is often priced as a risk asset initially, increased volatility triggers deleveraging, and then the validity of the safe-haven narrative is discussed. In terms of short-term sentiment, Polymarket's "BTC 3/2 Daily Change" gives an up odds that are significantly different from those for oil and gold, indicating higher uncertainty. Chart: BTC March 2nd Daily Price ForecastThe Hormuz risk is a key point in the short-to-medium-term price game for BTC. If the risk continues to escalate, rising oil prices will bring discussions about reflation or a more hawkish interest rate path to the forefront, and BTC may replicate the trend of first facing pressure and then choosing a direction. The medium-to-long-term turning point lies in whether the conflict will drag on into a longer period of uncertainty. If the market expects a cooling down within a few weeks and a formal ceasefire is reached shortly afterward, BTC is more likely to return to a trading framework dominated by the US dollar, liquidity, and risk appetite.Figure: Schematic diagram of the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz2. Whether the United States will be forced into a ground war. If the United States sends ground troops, or is forced into a protracted war due to Israel's hardline stance, the nature of the conflict will fundamentally change. The United States will face dual pressures: first, soaring oil prices will push up inflation, forcing monetary policy to tighten; second, long-term military expenditures will drag down fiscal and national strength, increasing the risk of a "war of attrition" similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.3. Uncertainty in Iran's internal power structure.The successor leadership's control over the state apparatus and the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its policy orientation towards the United States, remains uncertain. Whether the interim leadership can integrate internal factions and prevent a split within the military will determine whether Iran moves towards a more militarized, hardline regime or experiences a power imbalance under internal and external pressure, thus affecting whether the conflict escalates. Overall, current market pricing revolves around a "limited conflict," but tail risks have not been fully cleared, and fluctuations in geopolitical premiums will remain a core variable for asset prices in the coming weeks. 3. Potential Investment Opportunities From a strategic perspective, overseas markets are likely to follow a "risk aversion first, then recovery" path in the short term, but medium- to long-term uncertainties remain. According to Bloomberg's model calculations, crude oil prices have risen by approximately $11 per barrel since the beginning of the year, with "geopolitical risk premium" and "improved demand" contributing about $6 and $5 respectively, indicating a significant increase in the proportion of risk premium in the current oil price structure. Combined with statements from Israel, the conflict is expected to continue in the coming week, with risk aversion anticipated to persist in the short term. This would be bullish for safe-haven assets such as gold, crude oil, and bonds, but bearish for global equity markets. If the conflict shows signs of easing within 2-3 weeks, the risk premium is expected to gradually recede, with oil prices potentially falling back to the $60-70 range, and gold prices possibly retreating to around $5,200. However, the structural demand from global central banks continuously increasing their gold reserves will provide a bottom support for gold prices in the medium to long term. Looking further ahead, the frequency and intensity of global geopolitical conflicts are on the rise, and uncertainties regarding energy security and monetary credibility persist. From a strategic allocation perspective, gold and crude oil possess both inflation-hedging and geopolitical risk-hedging attributes, and therefore still hold value as core holding assets for medium- to long-term allocation.