Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global GDP will be impacted

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas stated that if the war in Iran leads to a disruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz lasting until June, the annualized global economic growth rate for the second quarter will decrease by 2.9 percentage points. Researchers at this regional Fed conducted a modeling analysis of the economic impact of different closure duration scenarios for this maritime passage. If the Strait reopens after one quarter, oil prices in the third quarter will fall back to $68 per barrel, while GDP growth will increase by 2.2 percentage points. The researchers noted that if the closure lasts for two quarters, oil prices will rise to $115 in the third quarter, then drop to $76 in the fourth quarter. If the closure lasts for three quarters, oil prices could reach as high as $132 by the end of the year