On March 20, Friday, as the military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran entered their 21st day, reports from domestic and foreign media indicated that the Middle Eastern energy system is facing systemic shocks: Iraq is preparing to relax contract restrictions on foreign oil companies, Iran is responding strongly to the U.S. claim of &#34;relaxing sanctions,&#34; and regional production and export capacity are significantly impaired. The market generally believes that this marks the conflict's full spillover from the military level to the energy and sanctions systems.
Analysis points out that under the dual drivers of supply disruptions and policy games, the global oil market is entering a &#34;wartime pricing&#34; phase—on one hand, production and transportation are restricted, while on the other hand, the U.S. is attempting to hedge against rising oil prices by easing sanctions, but geopolitical risks still dominate market expectations.
<h2>Iraq Decides to Grant &#34;Force Majeure&#34; Exemption, Alleviating Pressure on Foreign Oil Companies</h2>
According to CCTV news this Friday, sources from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil stated that the Iraqi government has decided to implement &#34;force majeure&#34; measures for all oil fields developed by foreign oil companies in Iraq. If unforeseen or unavoidable emergencies occur during the performance of oil field development contracts, leading to a suspension of production, the Iraqi government will not hold foreign oil companies liable for failing to meet production or investment obligations under &#34;force majeure&#34; factors.
This news from Iraq is interpreted as a policy safety net in response to the disruption of energy production caused by the war. As the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, Iraq aims to provide &#34;policy support.&#34; Previously, due to deteriorating security conditions and supply chain disruptions, several international energy companies faced pressure to fulfill contracts.
Meanwhile, production in Basra, the core production area in southern Iraq, has significantly declined.
According to CCTV, sources from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil stated that due to the halt of oil exports from southern Iraqi ports, Basra Oil Company's daily production has dropped from 3.3 million barrels to 900,000 barrels. Current production has been reduced to about 30% of the output before the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28.
Industry insiders pointed out that Iraq's move is aimed at stabilizing foreign investment confidence and preventing further withdrawals of international oil companies, which would exacerbate supply contraction.
<h2>Iran Responds Strongly to &#34;Easing of Sanctions,&#34; Escalating the Game</h2>
In response to the U.S. claim of &#34;possibly easing sanctions on Iranian oil,&#34; Iran denied and issued a strong response.
According to CCTV news, on the evening of the 20th, Iranian Oil Ministry spokesman Saman Godusi stated through his personal social media account that currently, Iran has basically no remaining crude oil stranded at sea, nor any excess crude oil available for supply to other international markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's related statements are purely to create hope for buyers, provide psychological comfort, and psychologically regulate the market.
Yellen stated on Thursday that the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil to continue being transported through the Gulf region, and the U.S. may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days.
On the same day, Yellen mentioned that the U.S. has begun to lift sanctions on approximately 130 million barrels of Russian oil that have been shipped or stored at sea, and may take similar measures for about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that have been shipped or stored at sea.
However, Iran emphasized that any negotiations must be predicated on stopping military actions and fully respecting sovereignty, indicating that the differences between the two sides on energy and sanctions issues remain significant
<h2>From Military Conflict to Energy Game: Spillover Effects Continue to Expand</h2>
From the supply side, this round of conflict has entered the stage of &#34;striking energy infrastructure.&#34;
Multiple media outlets have pointed out that the attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iranian energy facilities, as well as Iran's retaliatory strikes on regional energy targets, have led to damage to key facilities, with transportation through the Strait of Hormuz nearing a standstill; this passage accounts for about 20% of global oil and gas transportation.
At the same time, Iran's attacks on energy facilities in neighboring countries and countermeasures have also intensified the uncertainty of regional supply. Some data indicates that oil exports from the Middle East have dropped by more than half compared to pre-war levels.
According to reports from domestic and foreign media, the current U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has evolved from initial military strikes into a comprehensive game encompassing energy supply, shipping security, financial markets, and sanction systems.
On one hand, the U.S. is attempting to suppress oil prices and stabilize the market through &#34;limited sanction easing&#34;; on the other hand, Iran is responding with a tough stance and countering pressure by influencing energy supply.
In this context, oil-producing countries like Iraq are forced to adjust their policies to cope with the impact, further illustrating the deep restructuring of the regional energy system due to the conflict.
As the war enters its fourth week, energy is no longer just an &#34;affected variable,&#34; but is becoming a core tool in the game among various parties.
The core contradiction in the current oil market is shifting from a single supply shock to a dual-variable drive of &#34;supply + policy&#34;:
<ul>
<li>Supply side: production decline, transportation obstruction, infrastructure damage</li>
<li>Policy side: the U.S. considering sanction waivers, G7 preparing to release reserves</li>
<li>Geopolitical side: conflict continues to escalate, energy facilities become direct targets of attack</li>
</ul>
Some institutions have pointed out that this combination means oil price volatility will significantly increase, while also rendering traditional supply-demand models ineffective, with the market becoming more reliant on geopolitical expectations for pricing.
In addition, Iran's suspension of natural gas supplies to certain countries and the frequent occurrence of regional &#34;force majeure&#34; events further disrupt the global energy trade structure.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk

As the military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran enter the 21st day, the Middle Eastern energy system is facing systemic shocks. Iraq has decided to implement "force majeure" measures on foreign oil companies to alleviate its compliance pressure, with production dropping from 3.3 million barrels to 900,000 barrels, a decline of over 70%. Meanwhile, Iran has responded strongly to U.S. remarks about "easing sanctions," indicating heightened tensions. The market generally believes that the global oil market is entering a "wartime pricing" phase, with geopolitical risks dominating market expectations

- The ongoing military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran have led to significant disruptions in the Middle Eastern energy sector, with Iraq easing constraints on foreign oil contracts and regional output visibly declining.  
- Iran has categorically rejected US claims of potential sanctions relief, insisting that any negotiations must respect its sovereignty amid rising tensions over energy supply.  
- The conflict has expanded beyond military engagements to encompass issues regarding energy infrastructure and policies, significantly altering the dynamics of oil pricing and regional supply chains.

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The war has impacted the lifeline of energy, with Iraqi oil companies' production dropping by more than 70%, and they are seeking to "exempt" foreign companies. Iran retaliates against the U.S. by calling for "easing sanctions."