UBS raises NONGFU SPRING's target price to 41.6 yuan, increases profit forecast but maintains "Sell" rating

UBS published a research report indicating that NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK) is expected to exceed performance expectations for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 22.5% and 30.9% year-on-year, reaching RMB 52.553 billion and RMB 15.868 billion, respectively. In the second half of last year, revenue and net profit grew by 30% and 40% year-on-year, reaching RMB 26.931 billion and RMB 8.246 billion. During this period, the gross profit margin benefited from a decrease in the costs of raw materials such as PET, cardboard boxes, and white sugar, increasing by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 60.5%.

Management did not provide specific guidance on the gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2026, mainly considering the volatility of PET prices and plans to increase marketing investments. The company has locked in part of its PET usage and has no plans for price increases while maintaining strict cost management. In terms of overseas expansion, the focus will be on the Hong Kong and ASEAN markets in the short term. UBS has raised the group's profit forecast, increasing the target price from RMB 37.24 to RMB 41.6, equivalent to a projected 24 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 and a projected 22 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2027, maintaining a "Sell" rating