The Iran war has become the strongest geopolitical shock to the global energy market since the Gulf War in 1990.Since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 26, 2026, Brent crude oil has surged by 44% in just 25 days, US gasoline wholesale prices (Rbob) have risen by 48%, US diesel prices have increased by 51%, and European diesel prices have risen by 58%.Barclays Capital's latest research report warns: When the war ends will directly determine whether crude oil prices return to the benchmark scenario of $85/barrel or break through $110/barrel. For investors, the five key catalyst factors – progress of military objectives, congressional funding games, US military casualty figures, gasoline retail prices, and Trump's personal judgment – are the critical pricing variables in the current energy market.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/20c2bd74-b645-445e-a91f-8790d2d9d411.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/20c2bd74-b645-445e-a91f-8790d2d9d411.png"/>Barclays believes that oil price trends will diverge at three key time nodes: If the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage in early April, Barclays will maintain its benchmark forecast of an average Brent crude oil price of $85/barrel for 2026; if delayed until the end of April, the average price could be repriced to about $98/barrel; if delayed until the end of May, the average price could reach $111/barrel. Each day of delay will cause the cumulative inventory gap to be transmitted backward with a snowball effect, pushing up the price center.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/568ad5c5-32d9-445d-a98f-9b008d1cb80c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/568ad5c5-32d9-445d-a98f-9b008d1cb80c.png"/><h2>Five Key Factors: The Core Variables Determining the End of the War</h2>Barclays Public Policy Analyst Michael McLean has identified five catalyst factors that could end the Iran war:<h2>Key Point One: Achievement of Military Objectives</h2>According to CCTV News, the United States previously clarified three objectives for Iran: to destroy Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities; to strike Iran's navy to maintain passage through the Strait of Hormuz; and to destroy Iran's military and industrial base, rendering it incapable of external attacks for many years. It is worth noting that regime change or Iran's nuclear program are not included in the objectives.President Trump estimated at the beginning of the war that operations would last &#34;four to five weeks.&#34; The war is now in its third week, and according to White House statements, it may be at its midpoint.However, in terms of the number of targets struck, the US Central Command has not yet shown a clear inflection point of reduced action, with additional forces continuing to be deployed. Although the frequency of Iran's ballistic missile and drone attacks on the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain has significantly decreased, it has not completely stopped, indicating that Iran still retains some offensive capabilities. Barclays believes that it cannot be determined that the military objectives have been achieved until relevant indicators further decrease.<h2>Key Point Two: Congressional Constraints – The War Powers Act Constitutes a Hard Deadline of May 31st</h2>The War Powers Act stipulates that the President must obtain congressional authorization (AUMF) within 60 days of deploying armed forces and reporting to Congress. The President may extend this by an additional 30 days, and military action must be terminated after 90 days. Trump submitted a report on March 2nd, pushing the 90-day hard deadline to May 31st.AUMF requires 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and the Republican party currently holds only 53 seats. The Democratic party has already expressed its stance through two opposing resolutions – making the AUMF highly unlikely to pass, and May 31st is the institutional hard boundary for the end of the war.The economic cost of the war is also rapidly accumulating: the first week cost approximately $11 to $12 billion, the current daily operating cost has fallen to about $500 million, with total accumulated expenditure estimated at approximately $21 billion to date.In comparison, the Iraq War cost $815 billion in nominal terms over 13 years; the defense discretionary spending for fiscal year 2026 totals $839 billion. Furthermore, &#34;One Big Beautiful Bill&#34; has pre-allocated $150 billion to the Department of Defense, providing a temporary funding buffer.<h2>Key Point Three: Rising US Military Casualties Will Further Erode Public Support</h2>Barclays stated that support for this war in the US is fragile and shows clear partisan divisions.As of March 22nd, the RealClearPolitics poll average showed support at only 41% and opposition at 49%. President Trump's overall approval rating slightly decreased from 43% to 42%, hitting a record low for his second term (his lowest in his first term was 37% in December 2017).There have been 13 US military personnel casualties so far.Historical experience shows that wars usually bring a &#34;rally-around-the-flag&#34; effect, temporarily boosting presidential support, but Trump has not experienced this effect. The general rule is: the longer the war, the higher the casualties, and the more pessimistic the public is about the prospect of victory, the stronger the anti-war sentiment will be.<h2>Key Point Four: Gasoline Prices Touching a &#34;Political Red Line&#34; – $5/gallon is a Key Threshold</h2>In July 2022, the peak national average gasoline price during Biden's administration was $5.01/gallon.For the Republican party, not exceeding this &#34;Biden peak&#34; is a political psychological defense line, corresponding to a WTI oil price of around $120/barrel, which is more than 20% higher than current oil prices.Currently, Republican officials remain relatively optimistic, believing that even if oil prices face short-term pressure, there will be enough time for them to fall back with the end of the war before Labor Day (when investors truly start paying attention before the midterm elections). The administration has also taken a series of measures to try to alleviate oil price pressure, including releasing strategic reserves and exempting relevant sanctions.<h2>Key Point Five: Trump's &#34;Declaration of Victory&#34; – A Proactive Pivot</h2>Barclays believes that regardless of the actual battlefield progress, there is always a possibility that Trump may proactively declare victory and end the war at some point. When previously asked how he would know when the war was over, Trump's answer was telling – &#34;when I feel it in my bones.&#34;Barclays explicitly pointed out that the timing of this catalyst factor is almost completely unpredictable.In communication with clients, a mainstream analogy suggests that Trump's policy U-turn after the &#34;Liberation Day&#34; (tariff announcement on April 2, 2025) has conditioned investors to believe that market downturns can drive Trump to pivot.However, Barclays believes that the current market reaction is not &#34;panicked&#34; enough: after Liberation Day, the S&amp;P 500 index fell by about 12%, while it has only fallen by about 5% since the current war began; the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped by 60 basis points after Liberation Day, while it has only risen by about 40 basis points this time; investment-grade credit spreads widened by 26 basis points after Liberation Day, while the peak this time has only widened by 9 basis points. More importantly, suspending a tariff executive order is far easier than ending a real war.<h2>Significant Upward Risk Bias in Oil Prices</h2>Barclays' core judgment is that the current rise in oil prices is not speculative foam, but a reflection of real supply-demand imbalances.Before the war, the historical fair value implied by Brent crude oil relative to OECD inventory levels was underestimated by about 19%, and by about 15% relative to the replacement cost model; net speculative long positions for Brent and WTI were at historical lows, at the 2nd percentile since 2014, at the end of 2025.The dynamic evolution of the five catalyst factors – progress of military objectives, congressional funding games, US military casualty figures, gasoline retail prices, and Trump's personal judgment – will be the most important high-frequency tracking dimensions for judging the future direction of the energy market. Barclays explicitly stated that under uncertainty, the risk of the $85/barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2026 is skewed upwards.

Barclays believes that the progress of military objectives, congressional funding games, US military casualty figures, gasoline retail prices, and Trump's personal judgment are the five key catalyst factors that will be the most important high-frequency tracking dimensions for the future direction of the energy market. When the war ends will directly determine whether oil returns to $85 or breaks through $110

Predicting 'When Trump Will End the War': Here Are Five Key Points