Iran War to Date: Middle East is the Biggest Loser, US 'Internal Transfer', Russia is the Biggest Winner

An energy crisis is redrawing the global wealth map. According to reports from the Zhuifeng Trading Desk, George Saravelos, Head of Foreign Exchange Research at Deutsche Bank, published an Analyst Report on March 30th, quantifying and analyzing the impact of the Iran war on the external accounts of various global economies from a Balance Of Payments perspective. The report reaches three core conclusions: the Middle East is the biggest loser, US wealth is undergoing an internal transfer rather than a net increase, and Russia is the biggest winner. The report's modeling assumptions are based on 2024 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) trade data, simulating a scenario where energy prices rise by approximately 50% from current levels (roughly corresponding to oil and gas prices at the time of the report's release), while assuming a 75% decline in export volumes from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Middle East: Divergence in Price and Volume, Hit from Both Sides There is an anomaly in this energy crisis: the world's largest energy-exporting region has instead become the biggest victim. The reason is straightforward: prices have risen, but the goods cannot be sold. The report's model shows that export volumes from the Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to decline by 75%. While prices have doubled, the volume has dropped by three-quarters, leading to a significant contraction in net income. Even worse, Middle Eastern countries previously accumulated large amounts of US dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves and private savings. Now, these savings are being used passively to bridge the income gap—foreign exchange reserves are decreasing, and private savings are being liquidated. The report points out that this money will eventually flow to energy-exporting countries. Wealth in the Middle East is being transferred outward. Europe and Asia are also losers, joining the Middle East as the three regions suffering the largest income losses in this crisis. United States: Energy Wins, Overall Losses The US is the world's largest energy producer, and rising oil prices should theoretically be beneficial. However, the report's conclusion is more nuanced. "From a national income perspective, the US has not significantly benefited," the report states. "What is happening is a massive transfer of wealth from consumers to energy producers." This is an internal redistribution rather than an external net inflow. The US exports only a small fraction of its energy production, with the majority consumed domestically. When oil prices rise, consumers pay more and producers earn more, but the improvement in the nation's overall external accounts is very limited. This also explains a market puzzle: why hasn't the US dollar strengthened significantly in line with historical patterns despite the escalating energy shock? The logic provided by the report is that Middle Eastern countries are selling off USD reserves, while the incremental gains obtained by energy exporters like Russia are unlikely to flow entirely back into US assets. If these dollar savings are reinvested in other assets such as the RMB or gold, rather than being recycled back into US Treasuries, the dollar faces sustained structural pressure. Russia: The Biggest Winner, Followed by a Group of Smaller Nations Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter and does not face the same collapse in export volumes as the Middle East. The logic is simple: it can sell, and at higher prices. The report explicitly identifies Russia as the biggest beneficiary of this energy crisis. Following closely is a group of small and medium-sized energy exporters, including Norway, Australia, Canada, and Iran itself. Dollar Under Pressure, US Treasury Market Faces Challenges From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, the report's core warning falls on the US dollar and US Treasuries. The decline in foreign exchange reserves poses direct pressure on the US Treasury market—those holding the most US Treasuries are precisely the countries currently depleting their reserves. At the same time, the flow of new wealth from energy exporters will determine the medium-term trend of the dollar. The report indicates that if these funds do not return to the US but instead flow toward the RMB or gold, the dollar will remain under sustained pressure. The report also candidly acknowledges the limitations of its analysis: the model is a static analysis and does not account for demand destruction effects. If the crisis further deteriorates, a decline in actual demand will be inevitable. Additionally, countries like China hold significant oil reserves and can buffer the shock by consuming inventory, while potentially benefiting from the accelerated development of renewable energy.