CITIC International lowered the target price for China National Pharmaceutical Group to 8.7 yuan, accelerating global layout

Zhaoyin International's research report indicates that China Biologic Products Holdings (01177.HK) announced its 2025 performance, with revenue increasing by 10.3% year-on-year to RMB 31.83 billion (same below), of which revenue from innovative products grew by 26.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.52 billion, accounting for 47.8% of total revenue; adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 31.4% year-on-year to RMB 4.54 billion. Excluding the dividends from Sinovac Biotech, the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company still grew by 15% year-on-year. With the stabilization of generic drug revenue and the continued strong sales of innovative drugs, the firm believes that the company's performance will continue to grow steadily this year.

Based on DCF, the firm has lowered the target price for the group from HKD 9.4 to HKD 8.7 to reflect the downward adjustment of expectations for non-BD revenue. It is expected that the company's revenue will grow by 13.5%, 7.1%, and 9.2% year-on-year from 2026 to 2028 (non-BD revenue: 10.5%, 10%, 9.2%), and adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company will grow by 5.4%, 8.3%, and 10.5% year-on-year; maintaining a "Buy" rating