U.S. IPO Market Falls into "Wartime Stagnation": Is SpaceX's $75 Billion Listing the Collective Hope?

The U.S. IPO market is facing dual impacts from the war in Iran and the artificial intelligence wave. Performance in the first quarter was mixed, forcing several companies to shelve their listing plans. Market attention has consequently shifted to SpaceX’s potential mega-IPO—a deal of such magnitude that it could independently sustain the entire year’s underwriting performance. On March 31, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is expected to file a confidential application within days, targeting a fundraising scale as high as $75 billion, with a listing date potentially as early as June this year. This landmark transaction has become the most significant beacon of hope for Wall Street bankers amidst a volatile market. The ongoing war in Iran continues to exacerbate market volatility, driving U.S. IPO activity in March to its lowest level in nearly a year. Bloomberg data shows that the weighted average decline for IPOs in the first quarter of 2026 was approximately 3%. Although this outperformed the S&P 500 Index's decline of over 7%, seven of the top ten IPOs still saw their share prices break their issue prices, with a median decline of 28%. War and AI Shocks Narrow the Listing Window The war in Iran has become the primary source of uncertainty in the current U.S. IPO market. Evan Riley, Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets at BNP Paribas, stated that the situation in Iran has introduced market disturbances, and combined with this year’s disruptive effects in the AI sector, several deals have already been withdrawn, which will alter the overall landscape of the IPO market. In February, Clear Street Group and Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile both suspended their listing plans as they approached pricing. Michal Katz, Head of Investment and Corporate Banking for the Americas at Mizuho, stated bluntly that under current uncertainties, the IPO market will largely reach a standstill. She noted that once parties begin to come to the negotiating table and work on a resolution framework, the market should gradually stabilize. Katz emphasized that investors are most focused on the ability to assess various potential scenarios, particularly trends in the energy market and oil prices—both of which are closely linked to geopolitical dynamics related to Iran. Bankers Urge Companies to Seize the Window Despite the complex market environment, several bankers still advise prospective listing candidates not to wait indefinitely. John Kolz, Global Head of Equity Capital Markets at Barclays, noted that issuers who paused a few weeks ago might still face a similar environment in early April. "In the current turmoil, is it necessary to summon the courage and rely on a robust roadshow process to find long-term investors?" Rob Stowe, Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets at Barclays, also pointed out that there is an expectation that a resolution could come at any time, and all parties want to be prepared. Bloomberg data shows that, over the past 12 years, the second quarter has historically been the most active period for IPO activity. David Bauer, Head of Equity Capital Markets at JPMorgan Chase, stated that the forward-looking calendar still appears constructive, with healthy IPO pipelines in the financial, industrial, and technology sectors. SpaceX May Be the Key to the Year's Success or Failure Against the backdrop of overall market pressure, SpaceX’s potential listing is viewed as a variable that could shift the landscape for the entire year. Evan Riley remarked that if a mega-IPO goes through, the complexion of the whole year will change, as a single deal could easily reach the total annual IPO volume. Meanwhile, some industrial firms have taken the lead in testing the market. Indoor air quality company Madison Air Solutions is expected to seek at least $2 billion in financing, and drone manufacturer Aevex Corp. has also recently filed for a public listing. Bankers stated that other companies are being advised to remain ready at all times before their financial data expires in mid-May. Market performance in April will be decisive for the IPO trend in the second quarter and even the entire year.