Fitch: The start of new home sales in China in 2026 is weak, and a smaller decline is expected in the second quarter

Fitch believes that the sales of new homes in China started weakly in 2026, with sales in the first two months declining by 22% year-on-year, sales area down by 16%, and average prices down by 7%. The decline in sales is greater than Fitch Ratings' previous forecast of a 7% to 8% drop for the entire year, but the sales in these two months account for about 11% of the expected annual sales, which is basically consistent with the levels since 2021.

Fitch believes that local easing policies and the central government's promotion of housing provident fund reforms may boost home buying demand to some extent. Additionally, the potential rebound in the number of new projects entering the market may help narrow the sales decline in the second quarter of 2026. The second quarter typically accounts for a higher proportion of annual sales, averaging about 28% over the past five years.

The quarterly decline in second-hand housing prices across various cities has narrowed, but against the backdrop of a weak employment situation, high housing inventory, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties, market sentiment remains fragile. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the aforementioned improvement trend can be sustained.

Downside risks remain, especially if the stabilization of sales in core areas of high-tier cities comes at the expense of further weakening in suburban and lower-tier cities experiencing population outflow. Meanwhile, if homebuyers accelerate their shift towards second-hand housing transactions, it may drag down new home sales, leading to a greater-than-expected decline in annual sales