Global Markets Watch! What Will Donald Trump Say in His 9 PM 'National Address'?

At 9:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday (9:00 AM on the 2nd, Beijing Time), Donald Trump will deliver a national television address regarding the conflict with Iran. This marks Donald Trump's first prime-time national address since the launch of the joint U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran over a month ago, and global energy and financial markets are holding their breath. According to media reports citing six individuals familiar with the matter, Donald Trump is expected to declare in the speech that all military objectives have been achieved and state that the hostilities will conclude within the next two to three weeks. At the same time, he will also address the fact that the Strait of Hormuz has yet to reopen, directing his criticism at NATO allies and demanding that European countries resolve the issue themselves. Oil prices have broken through the $100 per barrel mark due to the blockade of the strait, and the global energy supply chain remains under continuous pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, Donald Trump has instructed Vice President Vance to privately convey a message to the Iranian side: he remains open to a ceasefire as long as "specific requirements," such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are met. Vance conveyed a "tough" message, stating that Donald Trump has "lost his patience" and warning that if Iran does not reach an agreement, it will face increasing pressure from strikes on its infrastructure. Announcing "Victory": Countdown to the End of Hostilities According to media reports citing six individuals familiar with the preparations for the speech, the core tone of Donald Trump's address will be to declare victory and outline how the next steps will be advanced. Former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon summarized it : "'I came, I saw, I conquered'—we'll stay a few more weeks to continue conquering—and then perhaps a ceasefire." White House officials stated that Donald Trump will explain to the American people that the U.S. is meeting or exceeding all established benchmarks in this conflict. Donald Trump had already previewed this message multiple times on Tuesday, warning the Iranian regime that the U.S. could still conduct "targeted strikes" against it in the future. The timing of this speech is quite subtle—approximately two weeks remain until the end of the four-to-six-week military operation timeline that Donald Trump had previously mentioned. Meanwhile, an additional 2,500 U.S. Marines are rushing to the Middle East, indicating that military deployments have not ceased. The Hormuz Dilemma: Ceasefire Negotiations at a Stalemate The issue of the Strait of Hormuz is the core sticking point that cannot be avoided in this speech. Donald Trump posted on social media early Wednesday morning stating that the "president of the new regime" in Iran has requested a ceasefire from the U.S., but the U.S. condition is that it "will only be considered when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and unimpeded." The Iranian side immediately and forcefully refuted this. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry dismissed the claim of a ceasefire request as "baseless," while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is under the "absolute and firm control" of Iran and will not be opened to "enemies." According to content forwarded by the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran cited by Xinhua News Agency, the Iranian side reiterated its use of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure. The Strait of Hormuz is the only waterway from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, through which more than one-fourth of the world's seaborne oil and approximately one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas are transported. The blockade of the strait has directly driven significant volatility in global energy prices and triggered widespread economic turmoil. Blasting NATO: European Allies as Scapegoats On the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump has clearly directed his spearhead at European allies. On Tuesday, he publicly urged European allies to "gather your courage" and "go get your own oil." He then further escalated his rhetoric, telling the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph in an interview that NATO is a "paper tiger" and stating that he is reconsidering the core position of the U.S. in the transatlantic alliance, noting that it has "gone beyond the scope of reconsideration." At an Easter luncheon on Wednesday, Donald Trump said the U.S. has "some very good allies, and some very bad NATO allies," specifically naming and criticizing French President Emmanuel Macron for refusing to provide ship support for the conflict. He also stated, "If a major war really breaks out, NATO will not be there." According to media reports, a senior White House official said Donald Trump's anger is "very real," especially since European countries such as Italy and the UK have prohibited the U.S. military involved in the Iran hostilities from using their bases and airspace. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rejected a U.S. request this week for aircraft to land at a military base in Sicily, stating the move was "fully in compliance with existing international agreements." In response, a senior EU official said, "No one believes the narrative he is trying to sell regarding Iran, specifically the 'I told you Europe wouldn't help us' part." Market Focus: Can the Speech Calm Unease? The political backdrop of this speech is equally significant. According to media reports, Donald Trump's approval ratings continue to decline, the war in Iran is generally unpopular within the U.S., and high oil prices along with energy market volatility have deeply unsettled Wall Street. Informed sources pointed out that this speech is a major challenge for Donald Trump: "This is not his natural environment; he cannot be confrontational and needs to be reassuring," while also "needing to be very direct, because he is not only communicating with the American people but also sending signals to the Iranians, regional allies, and European allies." Currently, more than 20 countries have pledged to join a joint operation to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after the hostilities end. However, against the backdrop of no substantive progress on a ceasefire agreement and the blockade of the strait remaining in place, investors will wait and see if Donald Trump's speech can truly stabilize market expectations.