"Big Banks" - Societe Generale: GCL TECH's gross margin improved in the second half of last year, reiterating the "Outperform" rating

According to a research report by Societe Generale Securities, GCL TECH (03800.HK) is expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 39.4% to RMB 8.69 billion in the second half of 2025, with a gross margin turning positive to 23.4%, compared to a negative 12.2% in the first half; net loss is expected to narrow to RMB 1.09 billion, in line with market and the bank's expectations. The earnings are mainly affected by last year's asset impairment of RMB 1.76 billion, compared to an impairment of RMB 989 million the previous year.

The bank believes that GCL TECH still has advantages among its peers in the polysilicon industry; it expects limited downside for polysilicon prices, market consolidation will continue, and anticipates that GCL TECH's new business will bring multiple catalysts. The bank has lowered its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, adjusting the target price from HKD 1.90 to HKD 1.80, and reiterates the "Outperform" rating