Donald Trump's national televised address on Wednesday evening US time has completely shattered investors' expectations for an imminent end to the Middle East conflict. The market shifted rapidly: stocks fell, oil prices surged, the dollar strengthened, and risk aversion made a comprehensive comeback.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated in his speech that the United States would launch more intense strikes against Iran in &#34;the next two to three weeks&#34; and threatened to &#34;bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.&#34; Although he claimed the US military was &#34;about to&#34; complete all military objectives, he provided no specific timeline for ending the conflict.
The market had initially expected Trump's national televised address to release a de-escalation signal, but instead received threats of escalation. Institutions such as Nomura and NAB have pointed out that the speech did not issue a clear de-escalation signal, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with global oil prices potentially remaining under upward pressure until late April. Trump's speech was &#34;truly disappointing.&#34;
After Trump's speech, Brent crude oil futures rose by about 7%, briefly touching $108 per barrel. US stock futures fell by over 1%, European stocks dropped by over 2%, and major Asia-Pacific stock indices were almost universally in the red.
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<h2>Hope Dashed: Market Suffers &#34;Great Disappointment&#34;</h2>
Earlier this week, Trump had released signals of a potential early end to the conflict, which boosted global stocks and caused the dollar to retreat from recent highs. Investors used this window to increase their exposure to risk assets, betting on a calming of hostilities.
However, Wednesday's televised address completely dismantled this narrative.
&#34;The speech itself didn't have much new, the key point is that he confirmed they will fight for another two to three weeks,&#34; said Mike Houlahan, director at Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland. &#34;This pushes the window for conflict resolution further out.&#34; He further pointed out that whether this extension will put additional pressure on the fuel supply chain will be the next issue to watch.
The Westpac Banking Corporation strategy team noted that the speech undermined the de-escalation trade, and they also mentioned:
<blockquote>
&#34;If anything, the speech re-introduced the threat of a more 'decisive final blow' before a unilateral conclusion.&#34;
</blockquote>
On the eve of the Easter holiday, traders who had previously increased their positions quickly closed them and withdrew, leading to increased market volatility.
<h2>Ceasefire Prospects Dim, Standoff Persists</h2>
Following the speech, there were no signs of substantive easing in the diplomatic situation.
According to CCTV International News, citing Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian armed forces issued a warning that they would launch a &#34;more destructive and larger-scale&#34; counterattack, with official Iranian statements claiming the war would continue until the enemy &#34;permanently regrets and surrenders.&#34;
Concurrently, the Israeli military reported detecting missiles flying from the direction of Iran. Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi intercepted incoming drones or missiles on the same day, and the US Embassy in Baghdad urged its citizens to evacuate Iraq.
On the diplomatic front, Reuters, citing Pakistani security sources, reported that Islamabad had proposed a temporary ceasefire plan, but had not yet received a response from either side.
Sources revealed that US Vice President JD Vance last conveyed a message through a Pakistani intermediary on Tuesday, indicating that Trump would accept a ceasefire plan under certain conditions. However, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran insists on a guaranteed ceasefire agreement.
Analysts point out that if Trump ends the war unilaterally without reaching an agreement, Iran might instead benefit with a stronger stance and greater leverage.
<h2>Energy Crisis Lingers, Stagflation Risks Escalate</h2>
What disappointed the market most in Trump's speech was the complete lack of any arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transport passes, has triggered one of the most severe global energy supply shocks in history since Iran imposed a blockade.
Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Stonex in Brisbane, stated that &#34;with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and no plan for reopening, oil prices will remain high for an extended period,&#34; and the market will have to face &#34;a new wave of inflation.&#34;
The combination of high oil prices and slowing economic growth is causing stagflation risks to continue to ferment. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 5 basis points to 4.376% after Trump's speech, reflecting market concerns about the inflation outlook compressing the room for accommodative monetary policy.
Toichiro Asada, a new member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, also warned this week that the war in Iran could expose Japan to stagflation risks that are difficult to manage with monetary policy. Chesler stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;We are entering a stagflationary environment of coexistence between low growth and high inflation expectations.&#34;
</blockquote>
<h2>Will the War Continue Until June?</h2>
Amidst multiple intertwined uncertainties, analysts generally expect the market to continue its risk-off pattern in the short term.
Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said, &#34;Given our expectation that the war will last at least until June, the dollar is fully positioned to strengthen further.&#34;
She also pointed out, &#34;It is indeed difficult to be optimistic about the direction of the war, as Israel and Iran are, after all, the other two parties to the conflict, not just the United States.&#34;
Oil prices and the dollar are seen by analysts as the most supported assets in the near term, while risk assets will remain under pressure until the situation shows a clear turning point. Currently, the most critical answer the market is waiting for—when the war will end—remains unanswered.
Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer
Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this article is suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

Trump's tough stance: Is the war with Iran nearing its end?

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Trump stated in a national televised address that the United States would launch more intense strikes against Iran in the next two to three weeks, shattering market expectations for an imminent end to the Middle East conflict. Following the speech, stocks fell, oil prices rose, and risk aversion returned. The market had anticipated a de-escalation signal, but Trump's threat intensified the situation, leading investors to quickly close positions and increasing market volatility

- Trump's national televised address shattered investor hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict, causing U.S. stock markets to drop while oil prices surged.  
- He claimed that the U.S. would intensify strikes on Iran in the coming weeks but provided no clear timeline for ending the conflict, leading to increased market volatility and prolonged high oil prices.  
- Analysts expect a continued risk-averse market stance until there is a definitive resolution to the war, with expectations it may last until at least June.

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Stagflation Trade Returns! Market Awakened by Trump's Words: Stop Fantasizing, War Isn't Ending So Soon!