<p>Amidst the largest oil supply disruption on record triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has sent oil prices soaring to nearly $120/barrel, OPEC+ is considering a symbolic production increase to signal to the market that producers are ready to ramp up supply once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.</p>
<p>According to two OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters, eight core member countries of the organization are scheduled to meet on Sunday, where they may discuss further increasing oil production quotas. Sources stated that the practical supply impact of such a move would be limited, serving more as a symbolic gesture to pave the way for potential easing of export restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. One source bluntly said, &#34;We need to respond at least on paper.&#34; Another source emphasized, &#34;The current market needs every barrel that can be produced.&#34;</p>
<p>Oil prices have been highly volatile this week, reflecting the market's extreme sensitivity to the conflict's trajectory. On Wednesday, prices briefly dipped towards $100/barrel after Trump said the US would end the war with Iran &#34;soon&#34;; however, they violently rebounded on Thursday as Trump later modified his stance, indicating continued strikes against Iran.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/27d00c57-9dea-4577-af66-01870225c3c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/27d00c57-9dea-4577-af66-01870225c3c5.png"/></p>
<h2>Largest Supply Disruption on Record, Oil Prices Near Four-Year High</h2>
<p>The US-Israel conflict with Iran has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record.</p>
<p>The Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively closed, yet this waterway accounts for over 20% of global oil transit. Major OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have been forced to cut production as a result, driving Brent crude prices to a four-year high of nearly $120/barrel. Meanwhile, Russian oil production has also been disrupted by drone attacks, further exacerbating supply tightness.</p>
<p>The last OPEC+ meeting was held on March 1st, where the organization agreed to a modest increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, after maintaining production unchanged in the first quarter due to concerns about oversupply – precisely when the US-Israel conflict with Iran began disrupting oil exports from Middle Eastern members.</p>
<h2>Symbolic Production Increase, Pausing Increases Also an Option</h2>
<p>Sources indicated that Sunday's meeting is typically held to set production quotas for May. Although there are no signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening yet, any production increase agreed upon by OPEC+ would have little immediate effect on actual supply. Its core intention is to send a signal to the market that producers are ready to quickly increase output once tankers can resume passage through the strait.</p>
<p>Notably, two sources stated that formal consultations among member states have not yet begun, and both declined to be named. A third source suggested that given the current reality of export restrictions, pausing monthly production increases is also a possible option. OPEC and authorities in Saudi Arabia and Russia have not commented on this.</p>
<h2>Alternative Export Routes Nearing Saturation, Production Flexibility Limited</h2>
<p>Among the eight core members, Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are not directly affected by the Hormuz blockade, but their capacity to increase production is also limited.</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have alternative export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but these are operating close to full capacity. Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu have surged to approximately 4.6 million barrels per day, nearing the pipeline's capacity limit. The UAE continues to export from the port of Fujairah, located outside the strait. According to Kpler data, Fujairah's crude and condensate exports in March increased to 1.61 million barrels per day from 1.17 million barrels per day in February, accounting for nearly half of the UAE's total pre-conflict exports.</p>
<p>In a longer-term perspective, these eight OPEC+ member countries cumulatively increased their production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, about 3% of global demand, before pausing production increases from January to March 2026.</p>

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

<p>At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?</p>

Trump's tough stance: Is the war with Iran nearing its end?

<p>Eight core member countries of OPEC+ are scheduled to hold a meeting on Sunday, during which they may discuss further increasing oil production quotas. Sources told Reuters that the practical supply impact of such a move would be limited, serving more as a symbolic gesture to pave the way for potential easing of export restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz</p>

- OPEC+ is considering a symbolic production increase to signal readiness to ramp up output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens amid a significant disruption in oil supplies due to the US-Israel conflict.  
- Core members will meet to discuss potential adjustments to production quotas, although actual supply changes may be minimal and mainly serve to reassure the market.  
- As oil prices surge to a four-year high, potential alternative export routes are nearing capacity, limiting the flexibility of key producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

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Report: OPEC+ Meeting on Sunday May Increase Production to Counter Extreme Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz