Polymarket bettors spent most of Q1 pricing Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) deliveries below 350,000.



Wall Street’s consensus sat at 372,160. 



The actual number, 358,023, handed traditional analysts a miss but validated the prediction market bettors who pivoted to the correct bracket days before the print.



Dan Ives, the Wedbush analyst with the Street’s highest Tesla price target at $600, called the delivery numbers “quite underwhelming” but said it was “not a shock” given the current EV backdrop. 



He maintained his Outperform rating, arguing Tesla is shifting gears to focus on its AI strategy.



<h2>What The Prediction Markets Showed</h2>



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For most of the quarter, the “below 350,000” bracket was the favorite, trading above 60%. 



That aligned with UBS’s bearish 345,000-unit forecast, which sat roughly 7% below the company-compiled consensus. 



Prediction market traders were more pessimistic than Wall Street for weeks.



Then on March 26, Tesla published its own analyst consensus of 365,645 vehicles on its investor relations page. 



The Polymarket chart shows an immediate flip: the 350,000-375,000 bracket surged from around 25% to near-100% within days. 



The bracket collapsed.



The actual 358,023 landed in that range. 



<h2>Where Tesla Goes From Here</h2>



The 6.3% year-over-year increase looks respectable until you remember Q1 2025 was when Tesla shut down Model Y lines across all four factories for the Juniper refresh. 



The more honest comparison is Q4 2025’s 418,227 deliveries, making this a 14.4% sequential drop.



TSLA is down about 13.5% year-to-date. 



Canaccord slashed its price target by $100 this week. The analyst consensus is a Hold at roughly $395.



Earnings are expected on April 28, with the focus depending less on cars sold and more on what Musk says about Cybercab production, which is slated to begin this month.



Image: Shutterstock

TSLA

TESL

Tesla reported disappointing Q1 sales, delivering 358,023 vehicles, missing Wall Street's consensus of 372,160. Prediction market traders had anticipated lower deliveries, pricing them below 350,000. Analyst Dan Ives described the results as underwhelming but not surprising, maintaining an Outperform rating. The year-over-year increase of 6.3% is overshadowed by a 14.4% drop from Q4 2025. TSLA shares are down 13.5% year-to-date, with Canaccord reducing its price target to $395. Upcoming earnings on April 28 will focus on Cybercab production rather than sales figures.

- Polymarket bettors assessed Tesla Inc deliveries for Q1 at below 350,000, while Wall Street expected 372,160, resulting in an actual count of 358,023.  
- Dan Ives of Wedbush deemed the numbers underwhelming yet unsurprising, maintaining his Outperform rating as Tesla shifts focus towards its AI strategy.  
- The prediction market shifted dramatically after Tesla's internal estimate, but year-over-year growth appears misleading against prior quarter performance, contributing to a recent price target reduction from Canaccord.

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Tesla Posts One Of Its Worst Sales Quarters In Years—Prediction Markets Saw It Coming