As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to capture global attention, Iran and Oman are advancing a new maritime traffic regulatory agreement, signaling a limited de-escalation. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain volatile at high levels, and US stocks and global risk assets are experiencing sharp fluctuations, with the market oscillating between &#34;escalating conflict&#34; and &#34;partial easing.&#34;
On Thursday, April 2, Eastern Time, according to Iran's state media citing Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping activities through the strait are to be conducted under the joint supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman.
Subsequently, according to Xinhua News Agency citing UAE media, UAE Minister of State Khalifa stated on Thursday that the UAE is willing to participate in any measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is a vital international waterway governed by international law. The UAE will protect its legitimate rights and interests while also being willing to participate in collective actions to maintain regional stability.
Gharibabadi's remarks initially boosted stock market sentiment. The three major US stock indices, which had fallen by more than 1% at the open, all briefly turned positive in early trading. International crude oil retraced some of its gains; Brent crude oil futures, which had risen by nearly 8.5% pre-market, narrowed their gains to about 4.1%, but the overall risk premium remained high.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8794f8fb-30d6-49aa-9936-5b066d1aafca.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8794f8fb-30d6-49aa-9936-5b066d1aafca.jpeg"/>
However, from a broader perspective, as the world's most critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz remains in a de facto &#34;semi-blockade&#34; state, and the supply shock caused by the conflict has not yet eased.
<h2>Iran Plans to Establish a &#34;Regulatory Mechanism&#34; for Passage with Oman</h2>
According to Iran's state media, Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman concerning vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which will be jointly supervised and coordinated by both parties to regulate shipping order. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that this arrangement does not impose restrictions but &#34;aims to promote and ensure safe passage, while also providing better services to vessels transiting the route.&#34;
Key points include:
<ul>
<li>Vessel passage must be conducted under the supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman</li>
<li>Emphasis is placed on &#34;safety and service,&#34; downplaying &#34;control&#34; terminology</li>
<li>Represents a degree of correction compared to previous hardline stances such as &#34;charging fees&#34; and &#34;restricting vessels from certain countries&#34;</li>
</ul>
This statement contrasts with a previous &#34;fee-collection bill&#34; promoted by the Iranian parliament. That previous proposal suggested charging transit fees for passing vessels or even restricting passage for some countries, which triggered a sharp reaction in international markets.
From a policy evolution standpoint, Iran is attempting to shift from unilateral control towards nominal bilateral coordination, leaving room for future diplomatic negotiations or de-escalation.
<h2>From &#34;Blockade Risk&#34; to &#34;Contest for Pricing Power&#34;</h2>
Although Iran emphasizes that the agreement does not constitute restrictions, the market is more focused on its potential implications:
<ul>
<li>De facto &#34;conditional passage&#34;</li>
</ul>
&#34;Supervision + coordination&#34; itself implies that passage requires approval, effectively strengthening Iran's control over the strait. Although passage through the Strait of Hormuz is nominally unrestricted, combined with previous reports stating that vessels transiting the strait were required to provide documentation or even pay fees, and some shipping has been forced to sail closer to the Iranian coast, it indicates that control is already occurring in reality.
According to CCTV News, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi also stated on Thursday that Iran is studying the imposition of transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the standards for these fees are still under study and the specific amount has not yet been determined.
<ul>
<li>Risk of reshaping the global energy supply chain</li>
</ul>
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. Current traffic volume has seen a sharp decline, severely disrupting the supply chain, and impacting multiple industries including LNG, fertilizers, and metals simultaneously.
<ul>
<li>Escalation of geopolitical game</li>
</ul>
Countries like the UK and France are promoting multinational cooperation to ensure waterway safety, while the US stance remains uncertain. Iran is using &#34;rule-making&#34; to strengthen its bargaining chips.
US President Trump, in his national address on Wednesday evening Eastern Time, insisted that the energy supply shock would eventually ease but did not clarify how the US would persuade Iran to allow the strait to resume normal traffic. He urged allies reliant on Middle East oil supplies to &#34;take responsibility for safeguarding the security of this waterway themselves.&#34;
In other words, the agreement between Iran and Oman will not only be a shipping arrangement but also an institutional attempt to control the &#34;sovereignty of the strait.&#34;
<h2>Short-Term Outlook: Easing Signals Unlikely to Change High Volatility Pattern</h2>
Based on current information, the shipping agreement between Iran and Oman releases marginal easing signals, but it does not address the core of the conflict—namely military confrontation and the sanctions game. Passage through Hormuz remains highly uncertain.
The market has entered a phase with typical characteristics:
<ul>
<li>Oil prices remain in a high volatility range</li>
<li>Risk assets are highly sensitive to news</li>
<li>&#34;Geopolitical premium&#34; has become the dominant variable</li>
</ul>
Until a substantial de-escalation of the conflict occurs, any news regarding &#34;technical arrangements&#34; will be more of a short-term disturbance than a trend reversal.

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

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Trump's tough rhetoric reversed market expectations, putting pressure on global stock markets, while oil prices surged 9% and energy stocks soared. This marks the fifth week of the Middle East conflict, establishing a pattern: gains at the beginning of the week, followed by a collapse on Thursday and Friday.In this market environment, how would you trade?

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Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz should be conducted under the joint supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman, with the agreement aimed at ensuring safe passage. Following his remarks, the three major US stock indices briefly turned positive, and Brent crude oil retraced more than half of its gains

- Iran and Oman are drafting a navigation regulatory agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a limited easing of tensions while maintaining high oil prices.  
- The agreement aims to monitor maritime traffic jointly, emphasizing safety and service rather than control, contrasting previous proposals for fees and restrictions on certain vessels.  
- Despite this, the Strait remains effectively "semi-blocked," and geopolitical dynamics continue to influence the global energy supply, leading to high volatility in oil prices and regional instability.

Iran and Oman Draft Agreement for Joint Management of Hormuz; UAE Expresses Readiness to Join Strait Security Efforts