Three Omani vessels appear to have bypassed the Iranian-controlled North Route, taking the &#34;South Route&#34; to transit the Strait of Hormuz—marking the largest single-day crude oil outflow since the start of the war with Iran and the first attempt by an LNG carrier to exit, yet the situation remains far from calm.
On Thursday, April 2, local time, Bloomberg reported that three vessels broadcasting Omani registration—two supertankers and one LNG carrier—appeared to be sailing along the Omani coastline, heading east through the southern waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. This route significantly deviates from the North Route used by most vessels recently, which passes between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm.
All three vessels are operated by Oman Ship Management Company and are of the largest tanker class. If the LNG carrier successfully passes, it will be the first liquefied natural gas vessel to exit the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of the war with Iran.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b30e523f-aa78-4b2e-a991-60b3fabce633.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b30e523f-aa78-4b2e-a991-60b3fabce633.png"/>
<h2>4 Million Barrels: Largest Recent Single-Day Outflow, but Still a &#34;Fraction&#34;</h2>
Javier Blas, an energy and commodities journalist, posted on X: &#34;All signs indicate that at least 4 million barrels of crude oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz today, marking the largest single-day outflow since the first day of the Third Gulf War.&#34;
However, he simultaneously pointed out: &#34;This is merely a fraction of the 20 million barrels that normally flowed out on any given day before the war.&#34;
The two oil tankers each carry approximately 2 million barrels of crude. One loaded in Saudi Arabia in late February, with its destination listed as Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar—a port connected to an oil pipeline leading to western China; the other loaded Abu Dhabi crude, with its destination undisclosed. Tracking data for the LNG carrier shows it is in ballast.
All three vessels stopped transmitting automatic position signals around 9:30 AM London time, as they were approaching or rounding the tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Analysts noted that due to severe signal interference and spoofing in the area, it remains uncertain whether the transit was completed, though a normal crossing typically takes several hours.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9788959e-c064-42c6-ae34-21bc13708a9d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9788959e-c064-42c6-ae34-21bc13708a9d.png"/>
<h2>&#34;South Route&#34; vs. &#34;North Route&#34;: Bypassing Iran, Taking Deeper Waterways</h2>
The significance of this &#34;South Route&#34; lies in its bypassing of the northern shipping lanes under Iran's de facto control.
The North Route passes between Iranian islands, featuring shallower waters and sharper turns. For fully loaded supertankers and LNG carriers, the North Route may be physically unsuitable.
Reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blockaded since the conflict erupted. Iran previously only allowed a few vessels associated with &#34;friendly nations&#34; to pass, and they were required to take the North Route. The use of the South Route by these three vessels is a noteworthy new variable.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/de925736-1a87-485e-8cd3-acb4295a5aca.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/de925736-1a87-485e-8cd3-acb4295a5aca.png"/>
A Wallstreetcn article previously mentioned that amid the instability in the main shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers had begun diverting in batches to the route near Larak Island along Iran's &#34;North Route&#34; to ensure safe passage. Larak Island is located in Iranian-controlled waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and leveraging its geographical advantage, Iran has been able to implement de facto transit control over diverted vessels. Some shipping companies have opted to accept the transit arrangements set by Iran at an operational level.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8d6f764d-fb79-4dc6-9be9-f4cc4a33b9ce.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8d6f764d-fb79-4dc6-9be9-f4cc4a33b9ce.png"/>
<h2>Iran and Oman Draft &#34;Co-Management Agreement,&#34; Plan to Charge Transit Fees</h2>
Meanwhile, new developments have emerged on the diplomatic front.
According to Iran's official news agency IRNA, Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. He said: &#34;The navigation of vessels passing through the strait should be conducted under the joint supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman. These arrangements are not about setting restrictions but are intended to promote and ensure safe navigation while providing higher quality services to transit vessels.&#34;
According to Xinhua News Agency, UAE Minister of State Khalifa also stated that the UAE is willing to participate in any measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the strait as an &#34;important international passage subject to international law.&#34;
Furthermore, according to CCTV News, Gharibabadi stated on April 2 that Iran is studying the imposition of transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He also mentioned that the fee standards are still under review and a specific amount has not yet been determined.
However, Gharibabadi emphasized: &#34;I must point out that we are currently in a state of war, and we cannot expect pre-war rules to apply to wartime conditions. We are facing two aggressor nations and other countries supporting the aggression, so it is natural that restrictions and prohibitions need to be imposed.&#34;
Rumors suggest that Iran is attempting to establish a toll mechanism, with plans to charge each transiting vessel up to $2 million.
Following this statement, the three major US stock indices briefly turned positive during intraday trading, and the gains in Brent crude oil futures once narrowed from about 8.5% pre-market to approximately 4.1%.
<h2>Spot and Futures Severely Diverged: Market Torn Between &#34;De-escalation&#34; and &#34;Scarcity&#34;</h2>
Tallulah Adams, a commodities expert at Goldman Sachs, analyzed that there is a significant &#34;spot-futures divergence&#34; in the current energy market: the futures market is increasingly pricing in ceasefire expectations, while the spot market continues to price in supply scarcity.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/befd4f11-c623-440f-8035-41f119f8bd24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/befd4f11-c623-440f-8035-41f119f8bd24.png"/>
Core data points are as follows:
<ul>
<li>The bank estimates that after policy responses and before supply-demand adjustments, the net loss of global commercial crude inventories has reached 11.4 million barrels per day.</li>
<li>The average daily flow through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 95% compared to normal levels (4-day moving average).</li>
<li>Since the outbreak of the conflict, global visible crude inventories have cumulatively decreased by 130 million barrels, consuming 30% of the projected inventory increase for the entire year of 2025.</li>
</ul>
On the spot side, Dated Brent (North Sea spot crude, the most important pricing benchmark for physical crude oil globally) briefly touched $141.37/barrel, its highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures fell by approximately $2/barrel.
Goldman Sachs noted that professional physical market clients generally believe current futures prices are underpriced relative to the actual scale of supply disruption, and argued that even without further escalation, current supply-demand imbalances are sufficient to trigger acute supply tightness.
<h2>Situation Still Escalating, Limited Signs of Easing</h2>
It should be noted that these &#34;signs of easing&#34; emerged against a backdrop of ongoing overall escalation.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump declared in a speech Wednesday night that he would &#34;strike Iran extremely hard&#34; in the next two to three weeks, with no mention of a ceasefire.
Subsequently, Iran's highest bridge—the bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj—was destroyed. According to reports cited by Xinhua News Agency, the target of the US-Israeli attack that day was the Beyke Road Bridge, a landmark project of Iranian engineering hailed as one of the world's most complex engineering achievements. It is a core piece of road infrastructure for the Tehran-Karaj transport corridor and was originally scheduled to officially enter operation soon.
Trump later posted on social media: &#34;Iran’s biggest bridge just came down, never to be used again—more to come!&#34; and issued a warning in all caps: &#34;IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL, WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME, WHILE THERE IS STILL SOMETHING LEFT OF THIS PLACE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN A GREAT NATION.&#34;
Dated Brent surged again to $141.37/barrel following Trump's speech.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3aaa59b0-ef6b-49dd-beec-464fa9f1217d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3aaa59b0-ef6b-49dd-beec-464fa9f1217d.png"/>

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

Trump's tough stance: Is the war with Iran nearing its end?

CRAK

Three Omani vessels appear to have taken the "South Route" near the Omani coast to transit the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing the Iranian-controlled North Route. This fleet includes the first LNG carrier attempting to exit the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. Energy analysts noted that approximately 4 million barrels of crude oil flowed out of the strait that day, the largest single-day outflow recently—though still a fraction of the pre-war daily average of 20 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that they are drafting a "co-management agreement" with Oman and plan to charge transit fees. Spot crude briefly touched $141.37/barrel, the highest level since 2008

- Three Oman-flagged vessels reportedly navigated the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the largest single-day oil outflow since the start of the Iran conflict, with around 4 million barrels released.  
- This route avoids the northern lane controlled by Iran, which has seen limited passage since the outbreak of hostilities, raising safety concerns among tankers.  
- Amid escalating tensions, Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor maritime activities in the Strait, potentially imposing transit fees on vessels, which could further impact market dynamics.

Wallstreetcn

Us Natural Gas

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

VG Energy

VanEck Oil Services ETF

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

BP p.l.c.

Occidental Petroleum

Range Global LNG Ecosystem ETF

SPDR O&G Equip

Us Brent Oil

SPDR Energy Select

United States Oil Fund LP

HSPC

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

"New Signs" in the Strait of Hormuz: 4 Million Barrels of Crude, First LNG Carrier "Appears" to Have Passed via "South Route" Near Omani Coast