The most popular question in the market recently is: Are global central banks selling gold? Has the 15-year official &#34;gold hoarding wave&#34; come to an end?
According to Pursuit Trading Desk, UBS strategist Joni Teves gave a clear judgment in the latest precious metals research report released on April 2: The possibility of a structural shift and large-scale gold selling by central banks is extremely low. Official institutions will remain net buyers, though the pace of purchases will slow moderately—expected to be around 800 to 850 tons for the full year of 2026, slightly lower than the approximately 860 tons in 2025.
The report targets the most conspicuous recent example—the news of Turkey &#34;selling about 50 tons of gold within a few weeks.&#34; Teves believes that Turkey's official gold data is mixed with traces of commercial bank positions, swaps, and other operations. Relying solely on headlines to infer that &#34;central banks have started selling&#34; carries high risks; it is better to wait for more detailed segmented data before making a judgment.
At the price level, UBS defines the short term as &#34;noisy&#34;: the geopolitical news cycle will keep gold prices volatile and consolidating; however, the medium-term logic still points to new highs, and the 2026 average gold price forecast has been lowered to $5,000 (previously $5,200, mainly a mark-to-market adjustment for the first quarter), while the year-end target price of $5,600 (set at the end of January) is maintained.
<h2>Evidence for &#34;Central Bank Gold Sales&#34; as the Primary Reason for This Pullback is Not Solid; 800-850 Tons is More Like &#34;Slowing Down&#34;</h2>
The scenario the market fears is specific: if Middle East conflicts become prolonged, oil prices push up inflation, growth weakens, and local currencies depreciate, some central banks might be forced to sell gold to cope with the pressure. The report does not deny that &#34;individual central bank sales&#34; might occur, but it emphasizes that this does not equate to a trend reversal for the official sector.
A key reminder in the report is that during the continuous increase in gold holdings by the official sector over the past 15 years, it is not rare for &#34;sales&#34; to appear in a single month. The reasons may also be pragmatic—central banks that bought cheaply in early years may engage in tactical profit-taking outside of their core holdings; a surge in gold prices triggers rebalancing; or the &#34;natural inflows&#34; of gold-producing countries convert into outbound shipments at certain points. In other words, selling can be an action, but not necessarily a stance.
The baseline judgment is that net buying remains, but the speed is slowing. The detail here lies in the trading habits of the official sector: they are more like &#34;physical buyers,&#34; often providing a floor during pullbacks, allowing the market to stabilize more quickly on a higher platform; conversely, the official sector typically does not chase rallies and tends to intervene when prices are more appropriate and volatility is more convergent.
This also explains why, when volatility rises, the market suddenly feels that &#34;central banks have disappeared.&#34; An observation mentioned in the research is that recently, the official sector and other long-term holders have preferred to wait and see, rather than immediately replenishing positions during every decline.
<h2>The Narrative of Turkey's &#34;50-Ton&#34; Sell-Off Has Been Amplified; Short-Term Gold Prices Are Driven More by the Dollar and Real Interest Rates</h2>
The case of Turkey is sensitive because it appears to fit the narrative of &#34;central banks starting to sell gold.&#34; However, Turkey has certain specificities: some of the changes may be swaps rather than direct sales; more importantly, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has long used gold as a policy tool to support liquidity management for the domestic banking system.
A portion of the total gold disclosed by the Central Bank of Turkey corresponds to commercial bank positions. Combined with policies after 2017 that allow banks and other entities to use gold more extensively within the financial system, this means &#34;changes in total volume data&#34; do not equate to &#34;central bank selling in the market.&#34; The report's suggestion is clear: wait for the disclosure of more detailed data that can separate categories before discussing trends.
The trading environment in March was characterized by &#34;dual uncertainty&#34;: on the one hand, when news related to Iran fermented, gold prices were already seeking a new stable range after the sharp rises and falls in January and February; on the other hand, the impact of Middle East conflicts on macroeconomics and asset pricing is non-linear, and long-term funds are reluctant to place bets easily.
When strategic funds that &#34;buy on dips&#34; are absent, gold prices are more likely to return to a traditional framework in the short term: a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. real interest rates suppress gold prices; bulls are further squeezed out, and some short-selling pressure even emerges. In addition, Chinese demand played a supporting role in the downside during this phase, with gold prices stabilizing near $4,500 before returning to oscillate around the $4,700 level.
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<h2>The Underlying Logic of Central Bank Gold Holdings: Buy and Hold</h2>
The World Bank's &#34;Fifth Biennial Reserve Management Survey (2025)&#34; explains a more fundamental question: what central banks actually think about gold. The survey covers holdings as of December 2024, with the participation of 136 institutions being the highest ever, and a gold chapter was set up separately for the first time.
A few figures can clarify the boundaries of central bank behavior: about 47% of central banks determine their gold holdings based on &#34;historical legacy,&#34; and about 26% are based on qualitative judgment; only about a quarter include gold in a formal Strategic Asset Allocation framework.
More importantly, only about 4.5% make short-term tactical adjustments to gold reserves, while the gold investment style is predominantly buy-and-hold (about 62%). This profile means that even if the pace of buying slows, the official sector does not act like a group of news-driven traders who frequently churn their positions.
Regarding the motivation for increasing holdings, more than half list &#34;diversification&#34; as the primary reason; local gold purchase plans account for about 35%, and geopolitical risks for about 32%; only about 6% list &#34;liquidity needs&#34; as a reason. The official sector's reasons for holding gold have not been invalidated by recent volatility.
<h2>Short-Term Volatility is Inevitable, but &#34;New Highs Ahead&#34; Remains the Main Theme</h2>
Returning to the trading level, gold is not on a straight-line upward path: it may continue to consolidate and be bumpy in the coming weeks as the market constantly reassesses geopolitical risks. However, the report believes that the two lines driving capital allocation into gold in the medium to long term—the combined risk of growth and inflation, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions—are making &#34;diversifying into gold&#34; a more common portfolio action.
Under this framework, the pricing anchor provided by the report is: an average gold price of $5,000 in 2026 and a year-end target of $5,600. It also mentions that speculative positions are already &#34;cleaner,&#34; while long-term participants remain underweight; if pullbacks occur again, they are closer to a &#34;strategic accumulation window&#34; rather than a signal of a trend ending.
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JNUG

UBS strategists provide a clear answer: Unlikely. Turkey's "50-ton sell-off" is suspected to involve swap operations, and there is a serious risk of misinterpreting the data. A survey shows that 62% of central banks follow a "buy and hold" strategy, with only 4.5% making short-term tactical adjustments; the official sector does not act like news-driven traders. UBS maintains its year-end 2026 gold price target of $5,600, noting that current speculative positions are "cleaner" and long-term participants remain underweight

- Recent discussions focus on whether global central banks are selling gold, questioning the end of a 15-year accumulation trend.  
- UBS analysts predict that central banks will maintain net gold purchases, albeit at a slower pace, estimating 800 to 850 tons for 2026.  
- Although some individual central banks may sell, this does not indicate a larger trend reversal; rather, the consistent long-term strategy involves buying and holding gold as a strategic asset.

Has the Era of Global Central Bank "Gold Hoarding" Ended?