Trump's signature deal-making strategy (using maximum pressure as leverage) is encountering systemic failure on the Iran issue. More than five weeks into the conflict, military action has failed to compel Tehran to comply, and diplomatic breakthroughs are nowhere in sight. This war has, to a considerable extent, slipped out of the White House's control.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on Wednesday local time, Trump delivered his first national television address since the US attack on Iran on February 28th. However, the 19-minute speech was filled with contradictory statements, completely dashing market expectations for a de-escalation, and international oil prices immediately surged.
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The root of this situation lies in the complete bankruptcy of Trump's negotiation credibility in Tehran. Iran views Washington's so-called &#34;productive negotiations&#34; as a smokescreen to manipulate markets or buy time for a renewed offensive. Behind this lies a deep crisis of mutual trust between the two sides that is almost irreconcilable.
Xinhua also reported that Trump has set April 6th as the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran. At that time, the military strikes that Trump promised to &#34;destroy&#34; Iran's energy facilities may resume. Meanwhile, Trump's approval ratings continue to decline, and the Republican party faces pressure from the mid-term elections in November, narrowing his domestic political space.
<h2>&#34;The Art of the Deal&#34; Encounters a Trust Crisis</h2>
In his best-selling 1987 memoir &#34;The Art of the Deal,&#34; Trump wrote, &#34;Leverage is the greatest power you can have in negotiations.&#34; However, this negotiation philosophy of &#34;step-by-step pressure&#34; is being openly mocked by Iran.
Senior Iranian official Saeed Jalili sarcastically referred to the frequent shifts in Trump's stance as a &#34;signal of American gradual retreat and the disillusionment of its president.&#34;
Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran at Johns Hopkins University, pointed out that Iran's basic judgment now is: the United States must endure &#34;a sufficient degree of pain and cost&#34; to compel it to negotiate on &#34;truly meaningful terms for Iran.&#34; He stated that in Tehran's view, Trump lacks credibility as a negotiator.
This distrust is not unfounded. Nasr and other experts said that Trump launched attacks during two rounds of preliminary negotiations, completely destroying any trust Iran had in him. &#34;When he promises to negotiate with Iran, they simply don't believe him,&#34; Nasr said, &#34;They don't actually think anything he says means anything.&#34;
Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University, was more direct in his assessment. He said, &#34;'The Art of the Deal' simply doesn't work in this situation, because it's not just about two parties sitting down to negotiate to maximize their interests. What he anticipated is far from what actually happened.&#34;
<h2>Contradictory Signals, Market Disappointment</h2>
Trump's speech on Wednesday juxtaposed two contradictory positions: he claimed the Iranian regime had been &#34;severely hit militarily, economically, and in all aspects,&#34; while at the same time threatening to &#34;deliver extremely tough blows&#34; to Iran in the coming weeks and warning that failure to reach an agreement would lead to the destruction of its power facilities.
On the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's statements were equally contradictory. He stated that the strait would reopen &#34;naturally,&#34; but then implied that if it did not, it would be &#34;someone else's problem,&#34; not America's responsibility.
&#34;There are three macro options on the table: escalation, retreat, or reaching a deal,&#34; said Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. &#34;The president clearly wants a deal, but the problem is that Iran denies this and may not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.&#34;
He added:
<blockquote>
&#34;The outcome of Iran controlling the strait indefinitely is hardly an American victory. This is the predicament we face.&#34;
</blockquote>
<h2>The Hormuz Dilemma: Lost War Aims</h2>
Trump's expectation of Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz was unexpected. This move caused drastic fluctuations in global energy markets, driving up gasoline prices in the United States, and creating an unexpected war aim for Trump: reopening this shipping artery.
Since then, Trump's approach has been to continuously increase pressure, threatening to destroy Iran's power and oil infrastructure if it did not open the strait. However, in his speech on Wednesday, he changed tack, saying, &#34;We don't need it,&#34; and suggesting that countries &#34;desperately relying&#34; on the strait could resolve it themselves.
Richard Fontaine was blunt about this:
<blockquote>
&#34;He can claim he doesn't care, or that it's someone else's problem, but everyone will clearly see that a major consequence of this war is handing over control of a key energy artery to a deeply hostile force.&#34;
</blockquote>
<h2>No Easy Way Out, Political Pressure Mounts</h2>
Domestically, the political cost of this war is rapidly accumulating. Trump's approval ratings continue to decline, the Republican party is in a defensive position before the November mid-term elections, and the Democratic party is poised to capitalize on the economic impact of the war.
Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said, &#34;I think Trump is beginning to realize that we are not winning this war.&#34; He added:
<blockquote>
&#34;Yes, we sunk Iran's navy and destroyed a large number of missile launchers, but gasoline prices are heading towards $5 a gallon, which will be a fatal blow to his political future, and to the political futures of Republicans who have been bowing to him for a year.&#34;
</blockquote>
&#34;So I think he is desperately looking for a way out now, and the problem is, there is no obvious way out,&#34; Himes said.
According to Xinhua News Agency, White House Press Secretary Levitt confirmed at a press conference that Trump has set April 6th as the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran. At that time, the military strikes that Trump promised to &#34;destroy&#34; Iran's energy facilities may resume. Tehran's response is: expecting Washington to make concessions and denying that any negotiations are underway.

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

Trump's tough stance: Is the war with Iran nearing its end?

More than five weeks into the conflict, Trump's signature "maximum pressure" strategy is failing across the board against Iran. Experts point out that Trump's attacks during negotiations have thoroughly destroyed Iran's trust in him, making "The Art of the Deal" completely ineffective here. With the negotiation deadline of April 6th approaching, Trump faces mounting domestic political pressure

Trump's "Art of the Deal": Why It's Failing on Iran?