The U.S. job market rebounded strongly in March, far exceeding market expectations, but the impact of the Iran war has not yet been fully reflected in the data, and deep structural concerns in the job market persist.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that Non-Farm Employment increased by 178,000 in March, far exceeding the 65,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, marking the largest single-month increase since the end of 2024. Employment in February decreased by 92,000 (revised down to a decrease of 133,000).<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cca3a51f-68e3-408f-a3fb-0b1d82eb5685.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cca3a51f-68e3-408f-a3fb-0b1d82eb5685.png"/>Notably, the Non-Farm Employment figures for January and February were revised down by a total of 7,000, with the base for the previous two months slightly lowered.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4f0dfcdf-c589-47d3-89a4-90e1bda9ddcf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4f0dfcdf-c589-47d3-89a4-90e1bda9ddcf.png"/>Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate in March fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and also better than the previous value of 4.4%.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/eca173b4-1f4f-41eb-98e6-398381e52698.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/eca173b4-1f4f-41eb-98e6-398381e52698.png"/>Following the data release, the market responded immediately. The U.S. Dollar Index jumped by more than 10 points in the short term to 100.12; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose accordingly, currently trading at 4.351%. As it coincided with the Good Friday holiday, the U.S. stock market was closed for the day.<h2>Main Reasons for Rebound: End of Strikes and Warmer Weather</h2>The significant rebound in employment data for March was already foreshadowed.The unexpected decline in February employment data was primarily due to the dual drag of strikes by over 30,000 Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers in California and Hawaii, as well as severe winter weather.With the aforementioned strikes resolved in March, employment in the healthcare industry rebounded significantly, becoming the largest contributor to employment growth for the month. Employment in the construction and leisure and hospitality sectors also followed suit in rebounding, which the market generally believes reflects a seasonal recovery effect brought about by improved weather to some extent.<h2>War Impact Yet to Show, Fed More Focused on Inflation</h2>Despite the bright data, analysts pointed out that the March report has limited reference value for assessing the impact of the Iran war.The data collection period for the Department of Labor was around mid-March, only about two weeks after the outbreak of the war; furthermore, since many companies' hiring plans are typically formulated months in advance, the substantive impact of the war on the job market is expected to gradually appear in subsequent monthly data.The rapid rise in energy prices triggered by the situation in the Middle East is intensifying the Federal Reserve's vigilance against inflation risks. Strong employment data will further solidify the Fed's stance of prioritizing inflation control and maintaining policy stability at this stage.<h2>Structural Concerns: Stalemate of Low Hiring and Low Layoffs</h2>Although the Unemployment Rate remains low, the job market as a whole still presents a stagnant state of &#34;low hiring and low layoffs.&#34; Employees have a certain sense of job security, but job seekers often face the dilemma of too many candidates for too few positions.Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research at job site Indeed, stated: &#34;If you are searching for a job in business, finance, or technology, it is actually very difficult to find one right now.&#34;From an industrial structural perspective, the healthcare and social assistance sectors have almost single-handedly supported the overall job market in recent months—in the 12 months ending in February this year, this sector added a total of about 700,000 jobs; excluding this field, the rest of the economy saw a net decrease of approximately 500,000 jobs during the same period.<h2>Tightened Immigration Compresses Labor Supply, &#34;Break-even&#34; Employment Threshold Lowered</h2>Another important reason the Unemployment Rate can remain low amidst slowing employment growth is the Trump administration's tightening of immigration policies, which has led to a contraction in labor supply. Reduced supply means employers do not need to create as many positions as in the past to maintain a stable Unemployment Rate.Economists have differing views on the current &#34;break-even&#34; employment growth threshold: some believe tens of thousands of new jobs are still needed each month to prevent the Unemployment Rate from rising, while others believe that even a mild contraction in the job market will not lead to more willing workers becoming unemployed.However, there is broad market consensus: this threshold has shifted down significantly during the Trump administration.Updating...

- In March, the U.S. job market showed a strong rebound, adding 178,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing expectations and indicating the largest growth since late 2024.  
- Although the unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, concerns remain regarding structural weaknesses in the job market and the potential future impact of the Iran conflict, which may not yet be reflected in the current data.  
- The tight labor supply due to reduced immigration policies has contributed to maintaining a low unemployment rate, but the job market is experiencing a stagnant state of low hiring and low layoffs.

Wallstreetcn

Rebound Far Exceeds Expectations! U.S. Non-Farm Employment Adds 178,000 in March, Hitting Over One-Year High, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 4.3%!