Strong employment data suppresses interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the U.S. bond market and strengthening the dollar. Due to the holiday, the U.S. stock market's spot market is closed all day.
According to Wall Street News, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined. Due to the Good Friday holiday, the U.S. stock market and most major markets are closed on Friday, with the U.S. bond market only open for half a day.
After the data was released, the sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 3.86%, while the 10-year yield also increased by more than 5 basis points.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f7d0502b-0b00-4451-aae8-032fe1812146.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f7d0502b-0b00-4451-aae8-032fe1812146.png"/>
U.S. stock futures also fell, with S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.4%. Prior to this, the Asia-Pacific stock markets generally rose on news that Iran and Oman might reach an agreement on the regulation of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, some data provides a buffer against interest rate cut expectations. The previous February non-farm data was revised, showing greater job losses than previously reported, while March wage growth also slowed more than expected, somewhat offsetting the potential inflationary pressure from the strong employment data.
Tony Farren, Managing Director of Interest Rate Sales and Trading at Mischler Financial Group, stated:
<blockquote>
This data will not push the Federal Reserve closer to raising rates, but it also does not provide a reason for cutting rates.
</blockquote>
Thomas Simons, Chief U.S. Economist at Jefferies, wrote in a client report that this report is unlikely to materially change the Federal Reserve's decision-making path. Thomas Simons stated:
<blockquote>
The data mostly reflects past conditions and likely does not yet incorporate the recent rise in energy prices or risks related to the Iran war. As it stands, there are no signs that the Federal Reserve needs to take immediate action.
</blockquote>
Despite the employment data causing disturbances, the current deep driving force in the market remains the trajectory of the Middle East war.
Wall Street News mentioned that, according to reports from Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media on Friday, Iran has officially informed mediators that it is unwilling to meet with U.S. officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the coming days, clearly stating that the U.S. request for a ceasefire is unacceptable.
Additionally, CCTV cited U.S. media reports that two U.S. warplanes may have crashed on Friday, with Trump stating that the downed planes do not affect negotiations. The dual obstacles of warfare and diplomacy have further deepened market concerns about the situation in the Middle East.
According to a recent poll jointly released by media and Ipsos Group cited by CCTV, 86% of U.S. respondents are concerned about the safety of U.S. military personnel, 56% believe the conflict will negatively impact their personal financial situation, and more than three-quarters of respondents oppose sending ground troops to Iran.
Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, stated:
<blockquote>
Asset prices are experiencing significant fluctuations in response to every news headline. Economic growth will continue to be under pressure until a clear agreement is reached and an acceptable plan for reopening the Strait is established, which will also put upward pressure on overall inflation. This means indigestion for both stock and bond investors.
</blockquote>
Rina Oshimo, a senior strategist at Tokyo Okasan Securities, pointed out:
<blockquote>
The market is highly alert to the potential developments over the weekend, especially the first weekend following Trump's nationwide speech. If attacks escalate or retaliatory actions occur, oil prices may remain elevated for a longer period.
</blockquote>
The crude oil market was closed on Friday due to the holiday. On Thursday, oil prices closed at extremely high levels, with WTI crude exceeding $110 and Brent near $109.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/aff1d048-428c-4b2a-943c-c1ab152cde5b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/aff1d048-428c-4b2a-943c-c1ab152cde5b.png"/>
Strong employment data boosted the dollar, causing G10 currencies to generally weaken. The cryptocurrency market is also under pressure, with Bitcoin down 0.3% to $66,704.7 and Ethereum down 1% to $2,047.83.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
Markets are risky, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk

.NDX

NUGT

Strong non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, leading to suppressed interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the U.S. bond market and strengthening the dollar. In March, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined. U.S. stocks were closed for the Good Friday holiday, with stock index futures slightly down. Despite the strong employment data, analysts believe it will not drive the Federal Reserve to raise or cut interest rates, and the market remains influenced by the situation in the Middle East

- Strong U.S. employment data for March, with 178,000 jobs added, suppresses interest rate cut expectations, leading to pressure on the U.S. Treasury market and a stronger dollar.  
- The data supports a rise in 2-year Treasury yields by 6 basis points and a 0.3% decline in S&P 500 futures, with ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict impacting market stability.  
- Despite robust job numbers, analysts believe they don't change the Fed's course significantly, with market dynamics largely influenced by geopolitical tensions and oil prices remaining high.

华尔街见闻资讯

NASDAQ-100

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X

SPDR Gold Minishares

ProShares Ultra QQQ

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

Us Gbl GLD & Met

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

Pro Ultr GLD

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

NASDAQ Composite Index

Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

Nasdaq

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

Dow Jones Utility Average

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

VG Financial

ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

Invesco QQQ Trust

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

GLOBAL X Gold Explorers

S&P 500

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

Pacer Cash COWZ 100-Nasdaq100RotatorETF

Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, putting pressure on interest rate cuts; U.S. Treasuries under pressure, U.S. stock index futures slightly down, and the U.S. dollar strengthened