Two Qatari LNG vessels were intercepted and turned back by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after being granted passage, while Saudi Aramco simultaneously raised crude oil premiums for Asian buyers to record levels. Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Middle East energy crisis on Asian supply chains is entering a critical third phase.
According to media reports, the IRGC intercepted two Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers heading toward the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning and ordered them to stand by.
These two vessels were originally permitted to transit under a framework agreement brokered by Pakistan. If successful, they would have been the first LNG shipments to transit the strait since the conflict broke out following U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28. Ship tracking data shows that as of Monday evening, the two vessels remained in waters near the UAE coast, failing to pass through the strait.
Concurrently, Saudi Aramco announced it would raise the premium for its flagship Arab Light crude for May delivery to Asian buyers to a record $19.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark. Regarding Qatar, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi disclosed that Iranian attacks have damaged 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, resulting in an estimated annual loss of $20 billion, with a production downtime of three to five years.
Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Grigsby pointed out that the transmission of the current energy crisis to Asian supply chains is entering its third phase—rising energy and petrochemical feedstock costs will fully permeate the pricing systems of products from export-oriented economies in Asia.
<h2>LNG Vessels Turn Back: Hormuz Passage Remains Effectively Blocked</h2>
According to media citing informed sources, the IRGC intercepted two LNG carriers, the &#34;Al Daayen&#34; and &#34;Rasheeda,&#34; belonging to QatarEnergy on Monday, ordering them to halt their advance. The two vessels had previously obtained transit permission under a negotiation framework led by Pakistan, with their original destinations being China and Pakistan, respectively.
Ship tracking data indicates that the &#34;Al Daayen&#34; changed course and began switching its destination signal back to the Port of Ras Laffan in Qatar, while the &#34;Rasheeda&#34; switched to &#34;standby&#34; status. Both vessels completed loading at the Port of Ras Laffan in late February and have been stranded for over five weeks during the blockade of the strait.
Previously, a Japanese LNG vessel, the &#34;Sohar LNG,&#34; successfully passed through the strait. Its joint owner, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, confirmed the news last Friday, though the vessel was empty at the time of transit.
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG flow. Since the conflict began, the waterway has fallen into an effective blockade. On March 26, Donald Trump stated that Iran had agreed to release 10 oil tankers for transit, but this interception of LNG vessels indicates that the execution of such agreements remains highly uncertain.
<h2>Saudi Premium Hits Record High: Export Rerouting via Red Sea Costs Passed to Buyers</h2>
According to a price list obtained by Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco set the premium for its flagship Arab Light crude for May delivery to Asia at $19.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark, a historical high. However, this figure was still lower than the $40 per barrel expected by traders and refiners in previous institutional surveys.
Oil traders explained that the premium fell short of market expectations partly due to sharp fluctuations and a slight retreat in Middle East crude oil prices during the last week of March. A more important structural factor is that Saudi Aramco has now fully switched its export channel from the Port of Ras Tanura in the Arabian Gulf to the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Since the crude oil pricing benchmark is still based on loading at Ras Tanura, buyers must bear the additional shipping costs themselves.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated in a conference call on March 10 that the company has suspended most of its medium and heavy crude production and is currently focusing on selling light and ultra-light crude through the Port of Yanbu. Aramco's pipeline to the Red Sea coast has reached its maximum transport capacity of 7 million barrels per day, with current daily exports averaging about 5 million barrels of crude—approximately 70% of total pre-war exports.
Brent crude has risen by over 50% since the conflict began. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only two oil producers in the Gulf region with significant alternative export channels that can bypass the Hormuz bottleneck.
<h2>Qatari LNG Severely Hit: $20 Billion Annual Loss, Eurasian Supply Faces Long-Term Gap</h2>
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated that Iranian attacks damaged two of Qatar's 14 LNG production lines and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities, resulting in the shutdown of 12.8 million tons of LNG production capacity per year. The repair cycle is expected to be three to five years, with estimated annual losses of $20 billion.
Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG exporter, with its export markets primarily concentrated in Asia. QatarEnergy may be forced to declare force majeure on long-term contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China for up to five years. U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil is a partner in the damaged facilities, holding a 34% stake in the &#34;S4&#34; production line and a 30% stake in the &#34;S6&#34; production line.
The impact of the attacks also extends to other energy products: condensate exports are expected to decrease by 24%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 13%, helium by 14%, and naphtha and sulfur by 6% each. Al-Kaabi said, &#34;I never dreamed that Qatar—and the entire region—would suffer such attacks, especially from a fellow Muslim nation, and during Ramadan.&#34;
<h2>Adjacent Facilities Damaged: Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain Hit in Succession</h2>
The destructive scope of this conflict has spread to the energy infrastructure of several Gulf nations.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) reported that Iranian drone attacks caused &#34;serious material damage&#34; to its facilities, targeting infrastructure belonging to Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) and Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC). Fires broke out in multiple locations, but emergency teams have since brought them under control. Previously, the Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries, as well as Kuwait Airport, had also been targeted.
In the UAE, the Borouge petrochemical plant in Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi, was forced to temporarily halt production on Sunday due to a fire sparked by debris from intercepted airstrikes. Borouge is a joint venture between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Borealis, with a nominal capacity of approximately 5 million tons of polyolefin products per year. Two days prior, the Habshan gas facility, Abu Dhabi's largest gas processing plant, was also forced to shut down due to a fire. Bapco Energies, the national oil company of Bahrain, also reported that an Iranian drone attacked a storage facility and caused a fire, which has since been extinguished.
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency published a &#34;target list&#34; including electricity, water, steam facilities, and oil, gas, and petrochemical assets—including PIC—hours before these attacks occurred.
<h2>Goldman Sachs Warning: Asian Supply Chain Shock Enters Third Phase</h2>
According to analysis by Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Grigsby, the impact of the Middle East energy crisis on global supply chains follows three progressive stages.
The first stage is the disruption of Middle East oil exports, which occurred at the beginning of the conflict. The second stage is the shrinkage of import volumes in key markets—this began to manifest in the second half of March as oil tankers that departed from the Middle East in late February reached their destinations.
Currently, the crisis is entering its third phase: rising input costs for energy and petrochemical feedstocks (including plastics, etc.) will gradually be transmitted into the global commodity pricing systems dominated by Asian export-oriented economies.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1112024b-69be-44e5-94dd-fd7c1a72e4e7.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1112024b-69be-44e5-94dd-fd7c1a72e4e7.jpeg"/>
Goldman Sachs' analysis implies that the impact of this shock will spread from the energy market to the broader manufacturing and consumer goods sectors, posing systemic pressure on Asian economies deeply embedded in global supply chains. Although Iraq has received an exemption from Iran and has notified Asian buyers that loading can resume, buyers are still seeking further confirmation of transit security guarantees, and market uncertainty is unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

Iran claims the foundation for negotiations has been undermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again; the White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. The situation is drawing attention. Do you think the talks can proceed smoothly?

Iran claims the foundation for negotiations has been undermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again; the White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. The situation is drawing attention. Do you think the talks can proceed smoothly?

The Hormuz National Park closes again, leaving US-Iran peace talks in limbo.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intercepted and turned back two Qatari LNG vessels, as the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Saudi Aramco has raised crude oil premiums for Asian buyers to a record high of $19.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark. Goldman Sachs warns that the energy crisis has entered its third phase—energy and petrochemical feedstock cost shocks are now fully permeating Asian export-oriented economies

- Two Qatar LNG vessels were intercepted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, preventing their passage through the Strait of Hormuz, following permission obtained through negotiations in Pakistan.  
- Saudi Aramco raised the price of its Arab Light crude oil to a record premium of $19.50 per barrel for Asian buyers, while QatarEnergy reported a 17% reduction in LNG export capacity due to the Iranian attacks, resulting in an estimated annual loss of $20 billion.  
- Goldman Sachs warned that the ongoing energy crisis is entering a critical phase, with rising costs in energy and petrochemicals impacting the pricing structure of export-oriented Asian economies.

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First LNG Vessel "Fails" to Transit Strait of Hormuz; Saudi Arabia Hikes Oil Prices for Asia Significantly; Goldman Sachs Predicts "Asian Supply Chain Shock" Entering New Phase