<p>As the deadline set by Trump for Iran ceasefire negotiations approaches on Tuesday evening US Eastern Time, global market sentiment has tightened again: international oil prices have fluctuated higher, US stock futures have fallen, and Bitcoin has erased the previous day's gains. Limited ceasefire signals and continuous escalation risks are in a tug-of-war, leading investors to generally adopt a wait-and-see approach.</p>
<p>According to Xinhua News Agency, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 6 that mediators are pessimistic about Iran &#34;yielding&#34; and reopening the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline set by US President Trump, and the hope of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement is &#34;diminishing.&#34; The report stated that some US officials said that before the deadline of 8 PM US Eastern Time on the 7th set by Trump, the positions of the US and Iran were &#34;too far apart to bridge.&#34;</p>
<p>Brent crude rose 1.2% to over $110 a barrel, but had repeatedly swung between gains and losses previously; US stock index futures fell 0.4%; Asian stock markets narrowed their morning gains to 0.5%, led by tech stocks – the latter is seen as a sector relatively less affected by the Middle East conflict; Bitcoin fell over 2% to about $68,800, erasing all of the previous day's gains after briefly surpassing $70,000.</p>
<p>Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned in an interview with Bloomberg Television that &#34;the market is certainly not fully pricing in the worst-case scenario at the moment,&#34; and the economic shockwaves from this war could worsen. Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, stated, &#34;This is a market driven entirely by headlines&#34; – news of a ceasefire framework caused stocks to rise and oil prices to fall, followed by Trump's threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure, which reversed sentiment, exposing market fragility.</p>
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>US stock index futures fell 0.4%; European stock futures point to a flat opening;</li>
<li>Asian stock markets narrowed their morning gains to 0.5%, led by tech stocks – the latter is seen as a sector relatively less affected by the Middle East conflict;</li>
<li>The yield on US 10-year Treasury notes rose 1 basis point to 4.34%;</li>
<li>The yield on Japanese 10-year notes fell 2.5 basis points to 2.400%;</li>
<li>The spot dollar index showed little change;</li>
<li>Brent crude futures rose 0.4% on the 7th to $110.19 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.8% to $115.31.</li>
<li>Gold fluctuated narrowly around $4,645 an ounce, having fallen more than 10% since the conflict began;</li>
<li>Bitcoin fell over 2% to about $68,800, erasing all of the previous day's gains after briefly surpassing $70,000.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<h2>Oil Prices: The Strait of Hormuz Dominates Market Trends</h2>
<p>Brent crude has risen about 50% since the conflict began in late February. The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle East oil exports, has consistently been the focus of market attention. Trump's insistence that any ceasefire agreement must include specific arrangements to ensure the smooth passage of this waterway has further narrowed the room for negotiation.</p>
<p>The war has caused thousands of deaths and triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. The war is increasingly losing popular support in the United States – consumers are bearing the pressure of an average gasoline price exceeding $4 per gallon, and Trump has consistently failed to find a way to end the conflict.</p>
<p>Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at AT Global Markets, wrote in a report: &#34;Market participants will remain highly sensitive to every development in the Middle East situation, which remains the primary driver of current sentiment, and the current bias appears to be downwards.&#34;</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4030b014-9bcd-4d1b-b69c-3d2dbed01a30.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4030b014-9bcd-4d1b-b69c-3d2dbed01a30.png"/></p>
<h2>Equities and Foreign Exchange: Moderate Volatility, Stalemate Between Bulls and Bears</h2>
<p>Global stock markets have oscillated between hopes of a ceasefire and concerns about escalation. According to Wallstreetcn article, Trump set 8 PM US Eastern Time on April 7 as the deadline. It was reported that a plan for a joint large-scale bombing of Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel was ready, awaiting Trump's order; Iran also issued an ultimatum to the US, insisting it would not back down and would escalate domestic mobilization. Although mediators have not given up, Pentagon officials are skeptical of Trump, pointing out: &#34;If the president believes an agreement is imminent, he might postpone the extension.&#34;</p>
<p>European stock futures indicate a flat opening; gold fluctuated narrowly around $4,645 an ounce, having fallen more than 10% since the conflict began; the yield on US 10-year Treasury notes rose 1 basis point to 4.34%.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/25f8984e-d7c4-46b1-8f02-aae3c3f9bf7e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/25f8984e-d7c4-46b1-8f02-aae3c3f9bf7e.png"/></p>
<p>The one-month volatility index for J.P. Morgan's G10 currencies rose 17 basis points to 7.98% on Monday, but remains within its recent range, suggesting that market concerns about the deadline are moderate and have not reached a severe level.</p>
<p>Mark Cranfield, a Bloomberg MLIV Asian strategist, pointed out that risk sentiment tightened significantly on Tuesday, with US stock futures turning lower and oil futures rising. This is a familiar fragile pattern for investors awaiting Trump's latest deadline, but he also noted that the decline in Asian markets may not necessarily continue into the US trading session. Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said that volatility indices in Japan, the US, and Europe have retreated from their peaks, implying that &#34;the market may have already digested these risks to a considerable extent.&#34;</p>
<h2>Bitcoin: Falling with Risk Assets, Institutional Inflows Provide Support</h2>
<p>Bitcoin fell over 2% to about $68,800 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, while Ethereum fell over 2.8% in the same period, wiping out the gains from its brief surpassing of $70,000 the previous day. Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, noted that Bitcoin sentiment &#34;remains bearish in the short to medium term,&#34; and the market is in a wait-and-see mode. &#34;Bulls lack sufficient confidence to sustain a breakout, and bears are unable to form a decisive downside breakout.&#34;</p>
<p>Nevertheless, there have been some signs of resilience at the institutional level: US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million on Monday, compared to a net inflow of $22.3 million in the previous week. Since early March, Bitcoin prices have largely oscillated within the $65,000 to $75,000 range, and overall trading activity in cryptocurrencies has remained weak since the significant sell-off in October last year.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3f352696-b641-474c-9521-85e1f0946dae.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3f352696-b641-474c-9521-85e1f0946dae.png"/></p>
<h2>Macroeconomic Data: Inflation Readings Become the Next Focus</h2>
<p>While closely tracking geopolitical dynamics, the market is also awaiting key inflation data this week. Data released on Monday showed that the pace of expansion in the US services sector slowed in March, with the largest drop in employment since 2023, while input prices accelerated, presenting a picture of slowing growth alongside inflationary pressures.</p>
<p>Mark Hackett of Nationwide believes that although investors are currently focusing most of their attention on geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data continues to point to a &#34;resilient economy and constructive earnings prospects,&#34; a backdrop that should not be overlooked.</p>

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<p>Brent crude rose 1.2% to over $110 a barrel, but had repeatedly swung between gains and losses previously; U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4%; Asian stock markets narrowed their morning gains to 0.5%, led by tech stocks; Bitcoin fell over 2% to about $68,800, erasing all of the previous day's gains after briefly surpassing $70,000. Gold fluctuated narrowly around $4,645 an ounce, having fallen more than 10% since the conflict began</p>

- As the deadline for U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations approaches, global market sentiment tightens, leading to a rise in international oil prices and a decline in U.S. stock futures.  
- Reports indicate pessimism over Iran’s compliance and a widening gap in U.S.-Iran positions, with market volatility driven by conflict dynamics.  
- Brent crude oil rose to over $110 per barrel, while Bitcoin dropped back below $70,000, underscoring ongoing uncertainty and investor caution.

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US-Iran Negotiations "Deadline" Approaches, Asian Stocks Pare Gains, Oil Prices Rise, Gold Trades Narrowly