International oil prices have broken $100 per barrel, with the average U.S. gasoline price exceeding $4 per gallon. Costs for aviation fuel, diesel, and agricultural fertilizers have risen successively. An energy price shock, triggered by the war with Iran, is pushing inflationary pressure back onto American consumers and driving the Republican Party toward a political abyss ahead of the midterm elections.
A sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed the average gasoline price up by more than a third from approximately $3 per gallon before the operation began. This has not only erased one of the few bright spots in the Donald Trump administration's record on inflation but has also triggered a chain reaction in borrowing costs, food prices, and other areas, continuously intensifying voter anxiety over the cost of living.
According to several recent polls, Donald Trump's overall approval rating has dropped from 43.5% at the start of the war to approximately 41%. His score for economic management has fallen to 37.2%, and satisfaction with his handling of inflation is even lower at 33.2%.
Democrats lead by six percentage points on the generic congressional ballot and hold an 18-percentage-point advantage among independent voters. As the midterm elections approach, the Republican Party's slim majority in both the House and Senate is facing a severe test.
<h2>Oil Prices: Easy to Rise, Hard to Fall</h2>
The rise in energy prices exhibits a clear asymmetry, meaning the impact of this shock could last for months.
Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, describes this phenomenon as the &#34;rocket and feather effect&#34;: when factors like war or supply disruptions cause oil prices to skyrocket, retail gasoline prices rise rapidly like a rocket; however, when the associated pressure is lifted, prices drift down slowly like a feather.
Mahoney stated that even if Middle Eastern oil producers resume full production and the Strait of Hormuz reopens for normal shipping, &#34;it will still take time for domestic U.S. oil prices to return to normal.&#34;
He estimates that the average U.S. gasoline price may continue to rise through June before potentially easing, though the pace will be very slow. Based on futures market pricing, related costs are likely to remain high in the coming months. Energy bill pressure may persist throughout the entire midterm election cycle.
<h2>Multi-sector Linkages: From Gas Stations to Dining Tables</h2>
This energy price shock has spread from gasoline to broader consumer sectors.
Surging aviation fuel costs are driving up airfares; rising diesel prices have increased freight and logistics costs; and the price of urea, a crude oil byproduct widely used as a raw material for nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture, is being passed through to some food prices.
Meanwhile, borrowing costs are also under upward pressure. Mortgage rate data shows that since the outbreak of the war with Iran, market rates have resumed an upward trend, narrowing the financial breathing room previously provided by rate cuts.
Mahoney noted that whenever average gasoline prices exceed $3.50 per gallon, intensive media coverage follows, &#34;which will further inflame voter dissatisfaction and push up inflation expectations.&#34;
<h2>Political Rifts: Independent Voters as the Key Variable</h2>
The inflation dilemma is accelerating the erosion of the Republican Party's political base, particularly among independent voters who are crucial to the outcome of the midterm elections.
According to the latest CNN poll, Democrats lead Republicans by 18 percentage points on the generic ballot among independent voters, a figure that places significant pressure on Republican candidates competing in multiple swing districts.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly acknowledged this political risk. In a media interview, he stated, &#34;Voters vote with their wallets,&#34; noting that even voters who lean toward supporting the war with Iran from a national security perspective may waver when faced with the high cost of living.
Donald Trump himself insisted in a White House speech last week, &#34;We are a dead, broken country after the Biden administration, and I made it the hottest country in the world, with no inflation.&#34;
However, polling data shows that most voters do not agree with this statement, especially regarding inflation. Regardless of the course of the war with Iran, the stickiness of energy prices and consumers' personal experiences will continue to test the Republican Party's ability to hold onto its majorities in both houses of Congress in the coming months.

The surge in oil prices has not only erased one of the few bright spots in the Donald Trump administration's record on inflation but has also triggered a chain reaction in borrowing costs, food prices, and other areas, intensifying voters' anxiety about the cost of living. Currently, satisfaction with Donald Trump's economic management has fallen to 37%, and the Democratic Party leads by 18 percentage points among independent voters

- Rising international oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, pushing U.S. gasoline prices over $4 per gallon and increasing costs across various sectors, including aviation fuel and agriculture.  
- The ongoing crisis has eroded support for the Republican party, with independent voters showing a significant lean towards Democrats, reflecting rising concerns about inflation and living costs.  
- Economic expert Neale Mahoney highlighted that energy price increases tend to remain high for extended periods, indicating sustained pressure on household budgets and complicating the upcoming midterm elections for Republicans.

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Airfares, Diesel, and Food Prices Surge! Inflation Returns, Piling Pressure on Republicans Ahead of Midterms