According to estimates from the U.S. government, over 9 million barrels per day of oil production from major Middle Eastern countries will be forced offline in April due to the conflict in Iran impacting global energy markets.
According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively reduced their crude oil output by 7.5 million barrels per day in March. The EIA anticipates this figure will rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April.
These figures once again indicate that the conflict in Iran has caused one of the most severe disruptions in the history of global energy markets, as key shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz have been significantly restricted. The resulting price surge also means that global oil demand growth is expected to be only half of what was previously anticipated.
The EIA report notes that if the current Middle East conflict ends before the end of April, the scale of production shut-ins could decrease to 6.7 million barrels per day in May. Output is expected to approach pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026.
The EIA stated in its report, &#34;Once transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, we expect it will take time to clear backlogs, repair tanker routes, and trade flows, while the risk of future disruptions will remain, lending a premium to oil prices.&#34;
Currently, global buyers are increasingly turning to the United States to fill the supply gap from the Middle East, with U.S. crude exports expected to reach a record high this month. As oil prices surge to multi-year highs, U.S. drillers are also expected to respond to calls from President Trump to increase production.
The EIA now anticipates that U.S. crude oil production will continue to rise next year, with output expected to approach 14 million barrels per day by 2027, an upward revision of 120,000 barrels per day from its March forecast.
The EIA report stated that under current circumstances, disruptions in the Middle East will keep oil prices elevated. The EIA projects that Brent crude, the global benchmark, will average approximately $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of $24 from the previous month's forecast; the full-year average price is expected to be $96 per barrel.
Meanwhile, gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to rise, adding further burden to U.S. consumers already facing high inflation and posing a political challenge to the Republican party, led by President Trump, ahead of the midterm elections.
The EIA expects that average retail gasoline prices will rise to as high as $4.30 per gallon in April, compared to the current approximately $4.14 per gallon according to AAA data. The full-year average price is projected to be $3.70 per gallon, an increase of 36 cents from the March forecast.
As oil and fuel prices surge, investors are also closely watching for signs of demand destruction. The report predicts that global oil demand growth has already begun to slow this year due to the conflict, primarily due to reduced consumption in Asia. Demand growth in 2026 is expected to be 600,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day.

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively reduced their crude oil output by 7.5 million barrels per day in March. The EIA anticipates this figure will rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April. The EIA projects that Brent crude, the global benchmark, will average approximately $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of $24 from the previous month's forecast; the full-year average price is expected to be $96 per barrel

- The U.S. government estimates that over 9 million barrels per day of oil production in major Middle Eastern countries will be forced to shut down due to the impact of the Iran conflict on global energy markets.  
- The EIA reports a reduction of 7.5 million barrels per day in March, which is expected to rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April, with oil prices reaching historical highs and global demand growth halved.  
- As U.S. crude oil exports rise to record levels, the EIA projects that retail gasoline prices may peak at $4.30 per gallon in April, increasing pressures on consumers amid already high inflation.

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US Raises Oil Price Forecasts for WTI and Brent for This Year and Next, Expecting Middle Eastern Countries to Shut Down 9 Million Bpd of Oil Production