On Tuesday, local time, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The report indicated that households' inflation expectations for both the short and medium term have risen, while long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged. Expectations for gasoline price increases have surged to their highest level since March 2022. Job finding expectations have improved, while unemployment expectations and expectations about the unemployment rate have worsened. Expectations for spending and household income growth are largely flat. Respondents are more pessimistic about future household financial conditions.
This Federal Reserve survey was conducted from March 2 to March 31, 2026.
The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations collects consumers' expectations about overall inflation and price trends for food, gasoline, housing, and education. It also reflects Americans' views on job prospects, income growth, and future spending and credit access, and provides measures of the uncertainty of respondents' expectations. The survey results are also categorized by age, region, income, education level, and numeracy.
This survey is a nationally representative online survey of approximately 1,300 household heads in a rotating panel. Each respondent participates in the survey for a maximum of 12 months, with approximately an equal number of respondents rotating in and out each month. Unlike cross-sectional surveys that use different respondents each period, this panel design allows researchers to track the expectations and behaviors of the same respondents over time.
<h2>Key Survey Findings</h2>
The following are the main findings from the Federal Reserve's March survey.
Inflation
<ul>
<li>The median expected inflation over the next year rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4%; expectations for the next three years rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%; expectations for the next five years remained unchanged at 3.0%. Disagreement among respondents narrowed for the one-year horizon and widened for the three- and five-year horizons. The median inflation uncertainty for all horizons increased.</li>
<li>The median expected house price growth rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, fluctuating in a narrow range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023.</li>
<li>Expected change in commodity prices over the next year: gasoline increased by 5.3 percentage points to 9.4%, the highest since March 2022; food increased by 0.7 percentage points to 6%; rent increased by 1.2 percentage points to 7.1%; medical expenses expectations remained unchanged at 9.7%; college education expenses decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%.</li>
</ul>
Labor Market
<ul>
<li>The median expected income growth over the next year decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, below the 12-month average of 2.6% and at the low end of the range since May 2021.</li>
<li>The average probability expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise over the next year increased by 3.6 percentage points to 43.5%, the highest since April 2025.</li>
<li>The average probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage points to 14.4%, still below the 12-month average of 14.6%; the average probability of voluntarily quitting increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.</li>
<li>The average probability of finding a new job if one loses their current job increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, but remains below the 12-month average of 47.5%, with improvements across all age, education, and income groups.</li>
</ul>
Household Finances
<ul>
<li>The median expected household income growth over the next year remained unchanged at 2.9%.</li>
<li>The median expected household spending growth over the next year increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1%.</li>
<li>Perceptions of credit access improved compared to a year ago: the proportion of households perceiving loan difficulty decreased, and the proportion perceiving easier loans increased; however, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly.</li>
<li>The average probability of being unable to meet minimum debt payments in the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage points to 12.3%, still below the 12-month average of 13.3%, with the most significant increases among respondents over 60, those with some college education, and those with annual incomes below $50,000.</li>
<li>The median expected change in tax burden over the next year decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%.</li>
<li>The median expected growth in government debt over the next year increased by 0.6 percentage points to 9.8%, well above the 12-month average of 7.4%.</li>
<li>The average probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will rise over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.</li>
<li>Perceptions of current household financial conditions deteriorated: the proportion believing their financial situation worsened increased, while the proportion believing it improved decreased. Expectations for future financial conditions also worsened, with the proportion expecting deterioration being the highest since April 2025, and the proportion expecting improvement decreasing.</li>
<li>The average probability that U.S. stock prices will rise over the next 12 months decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.</li>
</ul>

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The latest survey report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that households' inflation expectations for both the short and medium term have risen, while long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged. Expectations for gasoline price increases have surged to their highest level since March 2022. Job finding expectations have improved, while unemployment expectations and expectations about the unemployment rate have worsened. Expectations for spending and household income growth are largely flat. Respondents are more pessimistic about future household financial conditions

- The New York Fed released the March 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey, revealing increased short- and medium-term inflation expectations while long-term expectations remained stable.  
- Expectations for gas price increases soared to the highest level since March 2022, and while job-seeking expectations improved, unemployment expectations worsened, indicating a growing pessimism about household financial situations.  
- The survey, conducted among approximately 1,300 households, provided insights into consumer views on inflation, income growth, spending, and credit availability, revealing significant shifts in household financial outlook.

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Fed Survey: Short-term Inflation Expectations Rise, Gasoline Price Increase Expectations Surge to Highest Since 2022