Trump's Playbook: Now Entering Step Nine

The establishment of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement is unfolding precisely according to a repeatedly verified script. Independent US macroeconomic research firm The Kobeissi Letter recently stated that with Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States, Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of the 'conflict script' they are tracking has officially arrived, namely the conclusion of an agreement and the construction of a narrative framework. This arrival is approximately 10 days later than the firm's previous expectation. The Kobeissi Letter stated that according to the Trump playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of 'extreme pressure for concessions.' The potential market impact of this development cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the tenth step—a violent market repricing following the official announcement of the agreement—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have been holding defensive positions for a long time will face pressure to rapidly liquidate their positions, potentially leading to a sharp surge in the stock market, while oil prices may fall rapidly as the expectation of reopening shipping channels is established. Ceasefire and Tariff Suspension: The Same Logic According to CCTV News, Iranian sources reported early on the 8th that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited Iranian and US delegations to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for negotiations. Shehbaz Sharif also stated that the ceasefire between Iran and the US would take effect at 3:30 AM Iran time on the 8th (8:00 AM Beijing time on the 8th). Trump stated that this ceasefire window would be used to 'finalize and facilitate' the signing of a lasting peace agreement between all parties. The Kobeissi Letter drew a parallel between this two-week US-Iran ceasefire and Trump's April 2025 announcement of a '90-day tariff suspension,' considering them highly similar in nature. On April 9, 2025, amidst significant turmoil in the bond market, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on most trade partners. In the subsequent weeks, a US-China trade agreement was reached, and the market did not revisit its previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter noted that this ceasefire announcement occurred almost exactly one year after the aforementioned tariff suspension. The firm believes this pattern is not coincidental. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a highly consistent negotiation logic in tariff wars, concerning Venezuela, the Greenland negotiations, and the Iran issue: verbal pressure, extreme pressure for concessions, ultimately concluding with a 'deal.' Step Nine: Constructing the Agreement Narrative According to the 10-step 'conflict script' outlined by The Kobeissi Letter, the core of the ninth step is the conclusion of an agreement and the construction of a narrative framework. The firm pointed out that every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of 'extreme pressure for concessions.' This pattern has been confirmed in trade agreements with the EU and India, corporate negotiations in the Intel and rare earth sectors, as well as multiple conflicts that Trump helped resolve in 2025. Regarding the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government does not collapse, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire arrangement linked to nuclear issues, a regional security framework with an enforcement mechanism, or a sanctions adjustment plan conditioned on compliance benchmarks. The firm emphasized that 'the importance of the specific structure is far less than that of timing and narrative framework.' Step Ten: Awaiting Violent Repricing The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that market repricing after the announcement of an agreement is often sudden rather than gradual. The reason is that market participants are currently widely positioned defensively—with high energy exposure, compressed equity risk, and elevated volatility due to latent uncertainty. Once this uncertainty suddenly dissipates, these positions will be rapidly unwound, creating a concentrated market shock. The firm cited historical cases from April 2025, August 2025, October 2025, and January 2026, noting that after each tariff suspension or framework agreement announcement, the stock market experienced a significant sharp rise, while oil prices fell rapidly as expectations of reopening shipping channels were established. The Kobeissi Letter concluded: 'Pattern recognition has extremely high profit value in this market.'