First After US-Iran Ceasefire! Two Cargo Ships Pass Strait of Hormuz, 800 Giant Vessels Still Queued

Less than 48 hours after the ceasefire agreement took effect, the first ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but passage obstacles are far from eliminated. Iran insists on charging transit fees for passing vessels and retaining control, fundamentally conflicting with the international community's convention of treating the strait as a free international waterway. Over 800 merchant ships stranded in the Persian Gulf remain in a wait-and-see state. According to CCTV News, on April 8 local time, marine traffic tracking website MarineTraffic recorded the first ship activity through the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. It is understood that the Greek bulk carrier "NJ Earth" passed through the strait at 8:44 AM GMT, and the Liberian-flagged "Daytona Beach" passed at 6:59 AM GMT, having previously departed from the port of Bandar Abbas at 5:28 AM GMT. These are the first large vessels to pass through this crucial waterway since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement. However, the passage of these two ships has not opened the floodgates. Iran has stated it will require passing oil tankers to pay a $1 per barrel transit fee using Bitcoin and will conduct individual reviews of each vessel. Meanwhile, ships within the Persian Gulf have received radio broadcast warnings that vessels attempting to transit without the approval of Iranian authorities will face military strikes. Maersk, the world's second-largest shipping company, stated it is "urgently" clarifying transit terms but has not yet made specific route adjustments. First Vessels Pass, but Backlog Unlikely to Be Quickly Resolved The successful passage of the two vessels is the first positive signal since the ceasefire announcement, but the scale is far from pre-war levels. According to MarineTraffic data, hundreds of ships are still stranded in the region, including 426 oil tankers, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG carriers. Kpler data shows that approximately 187 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf are carrying about 175 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Whether this cargo can pass smoothly will largely determine the short-term trend of the global energy supply chain. Martin Kelly, director of consulting at maritime intelligence firm EOS Risk, stated that a maximum of only 10 to 15 ships can complete the transit review process per day, far below the normal level of about 135 ships per day before the conflict. He believes that clearing the backlog of ships within two weeks is "simply impossible." Iran Insists on Fees and Control, Disagreements Over Terms Are the Biggest Obstacle The greatest uncertainty regarding passage prospects stems from the starkly different interpretations of the ceasefire terms by both sides. Trump previously stated he would achieve "full, immediate, and safe opening" of Hormuz, while the Iranian Supreme National Security Council declared it a two-week safe transit arrangement coordinated with the armed forces and subject to "technical restrictions." On the issue of fees, Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for the Iranian Union of Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Exporters, told the Financial Times that each passing oil tanker must submit an email to Iranian authorities declaring its cargo, based on which Iran will inform them of the applicable fee, set at $1 per barrel of oil, with empty tankers passing for free. He stated that Iran needs to monitor cargo entering and leaving the strait to ensure no weapons are transferred during the ceasefire. "Everything can pass, but the review process for each ship takes time, and Iran will not rush," Hosseini said. Hosseini also stated that payment must be completed in Bitcoin within "seconds" to circumvent sanction tracking risks. Trump stated in an interview with CBS on Wednesday that there might be a joint arrangement between the US and Iran for collecting Hormuz transit fees. The Strait of Hormuz lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. The international community has historically treated it as an international waterway and has never charged transit fees for passing vessels. If the fee terms are implemented, it will set a new precedent for passage rules in this vital waterway. Gulf Countries Strongly Oppose, Complex Regional Power Dynamics Iran's intention to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz is provoking strong opposition from Gulf countries and poses a potential impact on the power dynamics within OPEC+. Oman's Minister of Transport stated that Oman's position is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is a natural passage, and according to the international maritime transport agreements signed by Oman, no fees should be levied on it. Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal family, stated that Saudi Arabia will demand "unhindered" access to the global market, and "allowing Iran any form of control over the strait would be a red line." Analysts warn that if Iran gains substantial control over Hormuz, it will fundamentally alter the power balance within OPEC+, giving Tehran potential veto power over its rivals' exports. Meanwhile, according to informed sources, despite the announced ceasefire agreement, the drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, used to divert oil exports to the Red Sea, still occurred on Wednesday. Shipowners Observe, US Escorts May Be a Key Catalyst In the absence of clear terms, Western shipowners are generally adopting a cautious stance. Maersk stated that "the ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but has not yet provided complete maritime certainty," and will continue to take a "cautious approach" to cargo, with no immediate adjustments to specific route arrangements. A previous article by Wallstreetcn.com mentioned, Natasha Kaneva, a commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase, published a report on the eve of the ceasefire announcement stating that even during blockades, oil flow through Hormuz did not cease entirely, with passage for ships of "friendly countries" maintained at about 15% of the pre-war average. She believes that the blockade has gradually evolved from Iran's tactic of pressure to a "strategic goal with potential economic and financial benefits," and Iran will seek to formalize and perpetuate it. JPMorgan Chase thus predicted that even if Iran eventually allows increased traffic, "it is likely to be controlled, fee-based, and conditional." The industry generally believes that whether the US Navy can provide escorts for passing vessels will be a key catalyst for a substantial recovery in shipping traffic. Reports indicate that the US has doubled its reinsurance guarantee for vessels willing to transit Hormuz to $40 billion and has introduced new insurance partners, including AIG and Berkshire Hathaway. Currently, about 20,000 civilian seafarers are stranded on the detained vessels and their support ships, facing shortages of supplies and psychological pressure, with a UN-affiliated agency issuing a warning about this. Whether the two-week ceasefire window can translate into a substantial recovery in passage still depends on whether the US and Iran can bridge their differences on core terms.