On April 8, a reporter from &#34;Securities Daily&#34; interviewed multiple industry insiders for their outlook on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for March. Interviewed experts generally believe that although food prices seasonally declined after the Spring Festival, service consumption remains resilient, and CPI is expected to continue to rise year-on-year in March. Meanwhile, the imported inflation pressure from rising international oil prices may push PPI to turn positive year-on-year in March.
On the CPI front, Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, told &#34;Securities Daily&#34; reporters that he expects CPI to fall by 0.4% month-on-month and rise by 1.3% year-on-year in March. Research reports from Caitong Securities show that the average prices of pork and fresh vegetables fell significantly in March, while oil and gas prices rose sharply, with CPI expected to be 0.9% year-on-year in March. Research reports from China Merchants Securities predict that CPI will rebound to around 1.5% year-on-year in March.
Wen Bin analyzed that in terms of food, in March, the average value of the agricultural product wholesale price index 200 was 122.7 points, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2%. Among them, pork prices fell significantly month-on-month by 10.0% due to concentrated high-level hog production and the off-season consumption after the festival; egg, vegetable, and fruit prices fell by 7.1%, 9.9%, and 1.3% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of energy, influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, continuous tightening of supply by OPEC+, a rebound in global demand, and speculative capital bullishness, the average daily price of Brent crude oil futures in March increased by 43.6% month-on-month, leading to successive upward adjustments in domestic refined oil prices.
Research reports from China Merchants Securities indicate that although food prices seasonally declined after the Spring Festival, especially with the drop in pork prices acting as a drag, service consumption remains resilient, supporting core CPI. Concurrently, geopolitical conflicts have driven up international oil prices, leading to upward adjustments in domestic refined oil prices, shifting the drag from energy items on CPI to a pull.
&#34;From the perspective of service activities, after the Spring Festival, the prosperity of consumption-related industries such as retail, accommodation, catering, and culture and entertainment has declined, and service prices are expected to fall month-on-month; the 'return to work' wave and the early entry of college graduates after the Spring Festival have stimulated rental demand, with the average rent for residential housing in 50 cities nationwide rising by 0.1% month-on-month in March. From the perspective of commodity consumption, prices of durable goods are expected to fall month-on-month due to promotional efforts intensified by a new round of trade-in policies; clothing prices are expected to rise month-on-month with the launch of spring clothing. Overall, core CPI is expected to decline slightly month-on-month in March,&#34; said Wen Bin.
In terms of PPI, Wen Bin expects the purchasing price index for major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in March to be 63.9% and 55.4% respectively, both rising to their highest levels since the second quarter of 2022. Based on PMI indicators and high-frequency data, PPI is expected to rise sharply month-on-month in March, turning positive year-on-year from -0.9% in February to around 1.0%, ending a continuous decline of 41 months. Research reports from Caitong Securities show that PPI is expected to be 0.3% year-on-year in March. China Merchants Securities predicts that PPI will rise to around 0.5% year-on-year in March.
Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, told &#34;Securities Daily&#34; reporters that rising international oil prices bring imported inflation pressure. The transmission of oil price increases through petrochemical products and other channels may lead to PPI turning positive earlier in March.
China Merchants Securities stated that the core reason for the rebound in PPI year-on-year in March is the significant rise in international crude oil prices, which has driven up prices in the petrochemical chain. Coupled with the resumption of work and production after the festival, the resilience of external demand, the front-loading of fiscal spending, and the commencement of major projects, prices of industrial goods such as chemicals, steel, and cement have generally risen, indicating a significant acceleration in the recovery of industrial inflation.
Wen Bin believes that internationally, geopolitical conflicts in March have disrupted global energy supply chains. The rise in crude oil prices has led to global liquidity tightening, compounded by a strong dollar, causing a general decline in metal prices. Domestically, the price increases in the petrochemical industry are being passed on to midstream and downstream sectors. Additionally, prices of glass and rebar have risen month-on-month, and the front-loaded issuance of special bonds supports a rebound in infrastructure investment enthusiasm.
Securities Daily
Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer
Markets are risky, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor has it taken into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

Industry experts anticipate that CPI will continue to rise year-on-year in March, mainly due to resilient service consumption and rising international oil prices. Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, predicts a month-on-month CPI decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Caitong Securities forecasts a year-on-year CPI of 0.9%, while China Merchants Securities predicts a rebound to 1.5%. Regarding PPI, Wen Bin expects the purchasing price index for major raw materials and the ex-factory price index to be 63.9% and 55.4% respectively, both the highest levels since the second quarter of 2022

- In March, experts predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 1.3% year-on-year amid resilient service consumption, despite seasonal declines in food prices.  
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive due to rising international oil prices and a general recovery in industrial prices following the resumption of economic activities post-holiday.  
- Specifically, March PPI may rise to approximately 1.0% compared to the previous year, ending a 41-month streak of negative growth.

Wallstreetcn

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

United States Oil Fund LP

Us Brent Oil

Occidental Petroleum

VanEck Oil Services ETF

BP p.l.c.

SPDR Energy Select

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

VG Energy

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

HSPC

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

SPDR O&G Equip

Industry Expects CPI to Further Rebound Year-on-Year in March, PPI May Turn Positive from Negative