Missiles are still flying, the straits aren't open, yet the market has decided to celebrate first. However, amidst the cheers, some have already begun quietly reducing their positions.
At April 8, Eastern Time, news of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement broke, triggering a sharp reaction in global financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8%, or approximately 1,325 points, marking its largest single-day gain in over a year; the S&amp;P 500 gained 2.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.8%.
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Major stock indices in Europe and Asia all saw gains exceeding 2%.
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Meanwhile, US benchmark oil prices plunged 16% in a single day to $94.41 per barrel, the sharpest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic and the largest single-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.
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However, this rebound was accompanied by unease from the start. The ceasefire agreement lasts only two weeks, and oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish. Throughout the day, multiple reports of ceasefire breaches emerged—Netanyahu declared &#34;this is not the end of the war,&#34; and Iranian officials claimed the agreement was violated—causing stock indices to pull back significantly from intraday highs, with closing gains substantially lower than the opening futures.
Phil Blancato, Chief Market Strategist at Osaic, stated: &#34;The market has a pent-up demand for even the slightest bit of good news.&#34; Yet multiple market participants warned that whether the ceasefire can hold and the straits can truly reopen remains the biggest unknown.
<h2>Rebound Logic: Short Covering + Relief Rally</h2>
The driving force behind this rally is less about fundamental improvement and more about a mechanical repair of positioning structures.
According to Goldman Sachs trading desk data, overall activity was 70% higher than the average of the past two weeks, but the strength of short covering was lower than market expectations. Rich Privorotsky, Head of Delta-One at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that overall market positions were previously high while net positions were low, with investors holding excessive index hedges. A large volume of short futures needed to be covered—this served as the primary fuel for the rebound.
Mechanical buying from CTA strategies kicked in simultaneously, with volatility compression acting as a tailwind. According to SpotGamma data, there was a positive Gamma concentration zone of approximately $10 billion near the 6,800-point level on the S&amp;P 500 (ranking in the 85th percentile historically). This structure, while driving a rapid ascent of the index, also posed resistance to further upside.
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The Goldman Sachs trading desk observed that long-only (LO) funds were the main buyers, with net purchases ranking in the 87th percentile historically, primarily concentrated in technology and macro products; hedge funds (HF) were relatively balanced, even reducing positions in sectors like tech and energy.
<h2>Market Divergence: Tech Leads, Energy Plunges</h2>
At the sector level, this rebound exhibited a distinct &#34;reversal of wartime logic.&#34;
Economically sensitive sectors broadly strengthened: industrials, consumer discretionary, and homebuilders all saw substantial gains. Flash memory manufacturer SanDisk Corp. rose 9.9%, United Airlines gained 7.9%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average hit a new all-time high. Goldman Sachs' TMT Momentum basket (GSTMTMOM) surged 10% in a single day, its largest daily gain on record, closing at an all-time high.

The energy sector, conversely, took a hit. Shares of ExxonMobil, Apache, and Cheniere declined, and US fertilizer producer CF Industries fell 5.7%. Goldman Sachs data showed that the relative strength basket of semiconductors versus software (GSPUSOSE) dropped 8.5% in a single day, also a record.
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In the bond market, ceasefire news initially triggered a significant decline in global yields, with the market significantly paring back expectations for central bank rate hikes. However, selling pressure emerged during the US daytime session, leading the 30-year US Treasury yield to close higher. The 10-year Treasury auction results were below expectations, with a decrease in foreign demand.
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<h2>Divergence Within Goldman Sachs: Rebound Expected, But FOMO Buying Not Advised</h2>
Faced with the same market conditions, Goldman Sachs experienced divergent views internally.
Dominic Wilson, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a previous report that historical experience suggests stock markets do not need to wait for a crisis to be fully resolved to bottom out; they only need confirmation that downside risks have reached their limit. He cited the cases of the COVID-19 pandemic and tariff shocks: in both cases, stocks bottomed out before real economic pressure peaked. Wilson also noted that at a P/E of 25x, even a complete write-off of an entire year's S&amp;P 500 earnings would only result in a 4% market decline—a &#34;fuzzy resolution path&#34; can also trigger a rebound.
However, Rich Privorotsky, Head of Delta-One at Goldman Sachs, held the opposite view. He stated bluntly: &#34;FOMO buying at current levels is not a good trade.&#34; He believes this rally is more of a technical short-covering rebound than a fundamental improvement. The S&amp;P 500 has recovered about two-thirds of its previous decline, and the gains in European stocks appear excessive—he estimates a &#34;reasonable&#34; rally should be 2% to 3%, rather than the 5% actually recorded.
Privorotsky's choice was to sell some long positions during this sharp surge rather than adding to them.
<h2>The True Arbiter: Tanker Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz</h2>
The core uncertainty of the ceasefire agreement lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly resume navigation.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on social media: &#34;Within two weeks, with the coordination of the Iranian armed forces and considering technical limitations, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will become possible.&#34;
Privorotsky's interpretation was blunt: tankers must pass through an Iranian &#34;toll booth&#34; for approval, and &#34;technical limitations&#34; mean throughput will be actively managed—&#34;supply enough to avoid escalation, but not enough for Iran to lose leverage in negotiations.&#34; Based on this, he predicts international crude will stay in the $90 range rather than falling back to $80.
According to The Wall Street Journal, tanker tracking agencies show shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf remains well below pre-war levels. Neil Roberts, Head of Marine and Aviation at Lloyd's Market Association, said: &#34;The likelihood of tanker traffic simply returning to normal is extremely low.&#34;
Clearview Energy Partners wrote in a client report that oil prices &#34;failed to fall further&#34; after the ceasefire news because fundamentals are sticky and the ceasefire agreement itself is fraught with variables.
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<h2>Technical Warning: Historical &#34;Exhaustion Gaps&#34;</h2>
Technical signals in the market also emerged that warrant attention.
Analyst @alpha_pls stated on X that the S&amp;P 500 triggered a rare technical event that day—simultaneously gapping up through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Since 1950, this signal has appeared only four times, each followed by a significant pullback: the average maximum drawdown over the next three months was 9.51%, with the largest being 12.92% in 2018. The analysis noted this pattern has historically been an &#34;exhaustion gap&#34; rather than the start of a sustainable rally.
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Meanwhile, although the VIX declined sharply, it remains above 20 and significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. Ben Emons, CIO at Fed Watch Advisors, remarked: &#34;This is a fragile situation that cannot be ignored. Market pricing suggests there is still hedging demand, or that the market is waiting for further clarity.&#34;
Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, put it directly: &#34;This isn't something that can be fixed with the wave of a magic wand.&#34;
<h2>The Broader Context: Economic Pressure Has Not Dissipated</h2>
Even if the ceasefire agreement is ultimately maintained, the accumulated economic pressures will not disappear.
Oil prices are still about 60% higher than at the start of the year, acting as a persistent drag on the US economy, which already faces stubborn inflation. CME FedWatch data shows that as of April 8, the probability of no rate cuts through 2026 rose to 73%, up from just 4% before the conflict.
Wilson noted that market pricing for monetary tightening is now clearly excessive. Historical experience shows that after a supply shock, policy rates typically rise slightly for 1-3 months but fall 6-9 months later as growth concerns weigh. He believes inflation fears may prove excessive compared to growth downside and unemployment risks.
Bloomberg strategist Michael Ball concluded: &#34;This is a transitional phase where the market moves from escalation fears to waiting for negotiations. Flows dominate, fundamentals are secondary, and policy support is limited. This points to a wider oscillation range at levels lower than before the Iran conflict.&#34;

Iran claims the foundation for negotiations has been undermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again; the White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. The situation is drawing attention. Do you think the talks can proceed smoothly?

Iran claims the foundation for negotiations has been undermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again; the White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. The situation is drawing attention. Do you think the talks can proceed smoothly?

The Hormuz National Park closes again, leaving US-Iran peace talks in limbo.

On April 8, the Dow rose 2.8% in a single day, while oil prices plummeted 16%, marking the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the quality of the rebound is questionable: the ceasefire lasts only two weeks, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains a "hard metric," and divergence has emerged within Goldman Sachs—strategists believe a "rebound can occur once the shock peaks," while the head of trading flatly advises against "FOMO buying" and took the opportunity to reduce positions

- On April 8, 2026, news of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran led to significant market reactions, with the Dow Jones surging by 2.8% and oil prices plummeting by 16%.  
- Despite the initial euphoria, concerns lingered regarding the ceasefire's duration and ongoing low oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.  
- Analysts warned that the rebound may be driven more by technical factors and short covering rather than fundamental improvements in market conditions.

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Global Markets Stage "Relief Rally" Even as "Missiles Fly and Straits Remain Closed"