GUM stated that the average loss per person in the first quarter of MPF was HKD 6,521, and it is difficult to predict the performance in the next quarter, "a single word from Trump could change everything."

GUM announced that due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict, the average return of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) dropped from a peak profit of HKD 14,813 at the end of February this year to an average loss of nearly HKD 21,334 in March, resulting in an average loss of HKD 6,521 for the first quarter of this year, ending a streak of four consecutive quarters of gains. GUM's Chief Investment Officer, Liu Jia-hong, stated that the current fundamental economic data from the US, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific markets is positive, and oil prices and inflation may be temporary issues, thus feeling cautiously optimistic about the MPF performance for the whole year; however, it is difficult to predict the MPF performance for the second quarter, as a single statement from US President Trump could reverse the MPF performance. Investing in a Single Market is Risky He mentioned that the company was optimistic about Asian equity funds last quarter, which performed the best in the first two months, but with the outbreak of war, especially affecting the Asia-Pacific market the most, he believes that investing in a single market is risky and recommends investing in global equity funds. The fundamentals of East Asian markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are good, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and technology, but they face issues with oil prices and inflation. He pointed out that the company holds a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the development of the US-Iran situation, as the current situation has temporarily eased. When selecting high-risk members, global equity funds can be considered, as they can diversify regional risks and help hedge against the trend of capital shifting towards "non-US assets," making them a relatively stable choice among high-risk funds. At the same time, he is optimistic about the continued strengthening of the Renminbi, which is beneficial for Hong Kong or Greater China equity funds. Members Often Make Switches in Times of Panic He believes that since the MPF is a long-term investment, it is not appropriate to take hasty actions in the face of war or short-term fluctuations. He used yesterday's stock market as an example, stating that if investors had "switched horses" earlier, they might have missed out on the gains. He also pointed out that during last year's tariff war, many investors switched to conservative funds and did not switch back to equity funds, thus missing out on last year's stock market gains. GUM's Director of Strategy and Investment Analysis, Yun Tianhui, added that in February this year, MPF members shifted to Risk-on, with HKD 3.57 billion moving to equity funds, reaching a two-year monthly high; however, in March, due to the turmoil in the US-Iran situation, members may have made switches out of market panic. Historical data shows that members often make switches during market panic; however, when the market rebounds, there is no significant inflow back into equity funds, resulting in missed opportunities during the rebound. Given that the MPF is a long-term investment, members are advised to avoid emotional panic selling or blindly chasing highs. In the first quarter, the "GUM MPF Composite Index" fell by 2%, closing at 280.7 points; the "GUM MPF Equity Fund Index" dropped by 3.3%, closing at 398.1 points; the "GUM MPF Mixed Asset Fund Index" decreased by 1.5%, closing at 283.2 points; and the "GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index" rose by 0.2%, closing at 133.2 points. Additionally, in March, aside from conservative funds, equity, bond, and money market funds all experienced declines. With the recent two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran and the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the company believes that the market will improve