U.S. inflation eased marginally, but declining income and lower savings put pressure on the consumption outlook.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – the core PCE price index – showed a moderate cooling of price pressures in February: it rose 3.0% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the lowest level since December last year, a slight narrowing from the previous month's 3.1%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month. Overall PCE rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase this year.
However, in contrast to the moderate decline in inflation, consumer spending data showed clear divergence. Nominal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% month-on-month, largely in line with the PCE price increase for the month; but real spending, after adjusting for inflation, increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, described by the market as &#34;virtually no growth.&#34;
More concerning is that this marginal increase in spending was not supported by income. Personal income unexpectedly fell 0.1% month-on-month in February, far below the market's expectation of a 0.3% increase; the savings rate also dropped sharply from 4.5% in January to 4.0%, returning to its lowest level since November 2023.
This combination indicates that consumers are using savings to barely maintain their current spending pace, with nominal growth driven by price increases rather than an actual rise in consumption capacity. Under an inflationary environment, the sustainability of this growth model is questionable, posing a potential risk to consumption resilience.
It is worth noting that all the above data were collected before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and the impact of the subsequent sharp rise in crude oil prices has not yet been accounted for.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6ec92c74-95c8-4901-acd9-e54649725ba8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6ec92c74-95c8-4901-acd9-e54649725ba8.png"/>
<h2>February Core PCE Fell to 3.0% Year-on-Year, Service Sector Inflation Slowed Significantly</h2>
The year-on-year increase in core PCE fell to 3.0% in February, a slight decrease from January (the highest level since March 2024), primarily driven by a significant slowdown in service sector inflation.
Among these, &#34;super core&#34; services prices excluding housing rose only 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase dropping to 3.2%, close to the lowest level since March 2021. Component data shows that entertainment services and healthcare were the categories with the most prominent month-on-month decreases this month.
Concurrently, non-durable goods prices saw a more noticeable jump, acting as a potential disruptive factor in the inflation data, and its future trend warrants attention.
Overall, real consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation rose 2.5% year-on-year, the highest level since October 2025, indicating that total consumption still has some support.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8c8dc60c-4f06-43e4-af0c-777668bd64c1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8c8dc60c-4f06-43e4-af0c-777668bd64c1.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/34eff213-e918-4c44-85d0-c1881ac918a3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/34eff213-e918-4c44-85d0-c1881ac918a3.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5cb6bc38-67a8-4904-844f-d7b14ad9cfd5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5cb6bc38-67a8-4904-844f-d7b14ad9cfd5.png"/>
<h2>Energy Price Pressures May Reshape March and Subsequent Trends</h2>
Analysts point out that the February data released this time has significant limitations – the Middle East conflict had not yet broken out then, and the impact of the subsequent sharp rise in crude oil prices on consumer prices will be mainly reflected in the March and subsequent data.
Based on available data, the energy component of PCE has already reflected some price increase expectations to a certain extent, but analysts believe that subsequent price pressures from crude oil remain considerable. Iran's potential control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz have already attracted attention from the international shipping community – the International Maritime Organization (IMO) recently warned that such charging mechanisms would set a &#34;dangerous precedent.&#34;
This means that the current moderate inflation data has limited reference value for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Market attention to the March and subsequent data will significantly increase, and energy price trends may become the key variable for inflation expectations in the next phase.

Breaking data alert! The U.S. Q4 GDP Price Index final reading came in at 3.7%, slightly below the 3.8% forecast; February Core PCE rose 2.97% year-over-year, also marginally missing the 3% estimate. Both figures came in softer than expected, signaling a modest easing of inflation pressure — yet still well above the Fed's 2% target. So when will the rate-cut window finally open? Do you think tonight's market is in for a major shakeup?

Breaking data alert! The U.S. Q4 GDP Price Index final reading came in at 3.7%, slightly below the 3.8% forecast; February Core PCE rose 2.97% year-over-year, also marginally missing the 3% estimate. Both figures came in softer than expected, signaling a modest easing of inflation pressure — yet still well above the Fed's 2% target. So when will the rate-cut window finally open? Do you think tonight's market is in for a major shakeup?

Fed Faces a Double Test: GDP and PCE Data Are Coming In Hot!

ARKK

QQWZ

U.S. core PCE year-on-year fell to 3.0% in February, a slight decrease from the previous month's 3.1%. Inflation in services slowed significantly, but a jump in non-durable goods prices poses a potential disruption. Consumer spending data showed clear divergence: real spending increased by a meager 0.1%, nearly stagnant, while personal income unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, and the savings rate plummeted to 4.0%. Consumers are depleting savings to maintain spending, raising doubts about the sustainability of growth

- U.S. inflation shows signs of easing, with the core PCE index rising 3.0% year-on-year in February, the lowest since December.  
- However, consumer spending remains under pressure due to falling income, which unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, and a drop in the savings rate to its lowest level since November 2023.  
- Analysts note that February's data does not account for recent oil price increases from the Middle East conflict, suggesting future inflation data will be influenced by significant energy price pressures.

Wallstreetcn

Ark Innovation ETF

Pacer Cash COWZ 100-Nasdaq100RotatorETF

Franklin Exponential Data ETF

Dow Jones Industrial Average

First Trust Cloud Computing

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite Index

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

Nasdaq

VG Financial

NASDAQ-100

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

Invesco QQQ Trust

Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF

Global X Cloud Computing ETF

First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

US February Core PCE Rose 3% Year-on-Year, Below Previous 3.1%; Consumer Spending Barely Grew Month-on-Month