US Fertility Rate Hits Historic Low of 1.57 in 2025, Why?

U.S. fertility rates hit another historic low in 2025, intensifying structural population pressures. Latest forecast data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the U.S. general fertility rate in 2025 dropped to 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, the lowest level on record. According to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on CDC data, the total fertility rate in the same year was 1.57 births per woman, also a historic low and well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for natural population replacement. This means that the space for the U.S. to achieve population growth through natural births is rapidly shrinking. Forecasts from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office both indicate that the small surplus of births over deaths will be zero within the next decade, and population growth will depend entirely on net immigration. Multiple demographers point out that economic uncertainty, concerns about relationship stability, and changes in the political environment are the core factors driving women to delay childbirth, rather than a fundamental disappearance of the desire to have children. Delayed Childbearing Becomes a Major Trend The core structural change driving the decline in fertility rates is the continuous postponement of childbearing by women of childbearing age. In 2025, the fertility rate of women in their late 30s surpassed that of women in their early 20s for the first time, marking a historic turning point in U.S. fertility patterns. The sustained decline in adolescent fertility rates is another notable feature. In 2025, the fertility rate for women aged 15 to 19 decreased by 7% year-on-year, with the 15-to-17 age group seeing a 11% drop and the 18-to-19 age group a 7% decline. Since 2007, the fertility rate in this age group has cumulatively decreased by 72%, closely related to decades of public health campaigns against early childbearing and the widespread availability of long-acting reversible contraceptives. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, noted that the U.S. had much higher adolescent fertility rates than other developed countries in the 1980s and 1990s. Decades of continuous, strong public health policies highlighting the dangers of early childbearing have largely driven the significant decline in fertility rates among this group. Economic and Social Uncertainty Suppress Fertility Intentions Despite the continuous decline in fertility rates, research indicates that many women still wish to have children, but the uncertainties of reality lead them to choose to postpone. Wendy Manning, a demographer at Bowling Green State University and co-director of the National Center for Family and Marriage Research, stated that the sluggish growth in births is underpinned by widespread public anxiety about the future, encompassing financial situations, relationship stability, and the political environment. She commented: "People are waiting for a more opportune moment to become parents, hoping their lives are on track before then. This uncertainty is not necessarily good for society as a whole." Narrowing Birth Surplus, Population Growth Relies on Immigration From a macro perspective of population structure, the U.S. population growth base is becoming increasingly fragile. In 2025, the number of births in the U.S. will only exceed the number of deaths by about 500,000, a surplus that continues to narrow with accelerating aging. Forecasts from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office both show that this birth surplus will disappear within the next decade. Once natural growth ceases, immigration will become the sole source for maintaining the population size, with profound implications for labor supply, the sustainability of the social security system, and long-term economic growth potential. It is worth noting that the decline in U.S. fertility rates is consistent with global trends, but still higher than in many developed countries. The latest United Nations estimates show that the global total fertility rate continued to decline in 2023, with more than half of the world's countries falling below the replacement level.