(New throughout, adds details on USDA data and analyst comment)
By Tom Polansek
CHICAGO, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. corn inventories are set to remain plentiful, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Thursday, even as the Iran war has raised expectations that farmers will plant less of the grain to save on soaring fertilizer costs. USDA updated its estimates for corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks in a monthly report as farmers and grain traders sought to assess the impact of the war on crop production. Corn and wheat require more fertilizer, making them less attractive to plant than soybeans with the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran cutting off critical nitrogen supplies from the Gulf.
Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon on Thursday, putting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire into further jeopardy.
“Corn and wheat supplies are large enough to make justification of recent prices difficult if we’re moving toward peace, but the opposite is true if we’re headed for global food shortages,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for consultancy StoneX.
USDA left its estimate for 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged from last month at a seven-year high of 2.127 billion bushels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected 2.128 billion bushels. The agency increased its forecast for world stocks to 294.81 million metric tons from 292.75 million metric tons in March. That was an 11-year low but above analysts’ estimates of 293.07 million.
U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 350 million bushels, while analysts expected 349 million bushels. For wheat, USDA projected 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks at 938 million bushels, up from 931 million last month due to larger imports. Analysts expected a decline to 923 million bushels. Drought has been building in the southern and central Plains, hurting the condition of winter wheat that farmers will harvest this summer. Dryness also creates headaches for farmers preparing to plant corn and soybeans in these areas this spring, as putting seeds into dry soils can mean uneven plant emergence and may impact yields.
As of Tuesday, drought was affecting 71% of U.S. winter wheat, up from 55% a week earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 35% good-to-excellent as of Sunday, a three-year low for that time of year. Last month, USDA estimated U.S. farmers would plant the fewest wheat acres for harvest this year since agency records began in 1919.

159985

CORN

516550

Reuters

ChinaAMC Feed Soybean Meal Future ETF

Teucrium Corn Fd

Harvest CSI Grand Agriculture ETF

Fullgoal CSI Agriculture Theme ETF

WisdomTree Corn

WisdomTree Soybeans

Teucrium Wheat

First Trust NASDAQ Food & Beverage

First Trust Indxx Global Agri

Teucrium Soybean

E Fund CSI Modern Agriculture Theme ETF

WisdomTree Wheat

iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF

Penghua CNI Grain Industry ETF

VanEck Agribusiness ETF

Invesco DB Agriculture FD ETF

ChinaAMC CSI Agriculture Theme ETF

US corn stocks remain ample as Iran war threatens plantings, USDA data shows